With the market style changing again, the performance of the gem index today (April 19) is significantly weaker than that of the Shanghai index. The opening price of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated. After the rapid rise of the stock index at the beginning of the session, the gem index plunged back rapidly and showed a pulse downward pattern throughout the day. The Shanghai index remained volatile near yesterday's closing point in the morning. It once weakened with the gem index in the afternoon, and stabilized and rose again in the late session. Finally, the Shanghai index closed down slightly.
In this regard, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) previously said that the conversion of leading hot spots is still relatively frequent, the market lacks obvious profit-making effect, investors are in a heavy mood to wait and see with money, and it still needs external support to break the market situation in the future.
At the same time, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that at present, the negative factors at home and abroad have not been completely cleared, the market mood is low, and the repair will take time. In this process, it is vulnerable to periodic impact and continues to "grind the bottom". In this regard, we maintain our previous judgment. At this stage, we suggest to focus on large cap value stocks with better defense capability and valuation repair space. At the same time, the boom inflection point and allocation value of the concept of post epidemic recovery are becoming increasingly prominent, so we suggest to continue to pay attention.
sector:
I. agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that from the current time node, the market value of some high-quality pig breeding stocks has dropped to a historically low level, and the configuration window has gradually opened. The choice of specific targets to choose from among among the specific targets is to be recommended in turn for the selection of specific targets, with the following to be recommended in turn: the0 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 8 , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , etc. are expected to benefit fully.
In addition, as a country with a large population, food security is very important. National macro policies have always placed food security and seed industry revitalization at a strategic high point. The prosperity of seed industry has increased, and listed companies related to seed industry have ushered in an important policy window. In terms of target selection, we mainly recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with obvious first mover advantage and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
At the same time, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) mentioned that in the current environment of rising global food prices and restrictions on food exports in many countries, GM technology is expected to accelerate the implementation. Key recommendations include, Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) : rich reserves of transgenic technology Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) : corn seeds are expected to rise in both quantity and price.
In terms of investment suggestions, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) reiterated that the current pig sector is still in an important layout window period: 1) the capacity continues to be decommissioned, which has decreased month on month for eight consecutive months since July last year, the capacity decline has maintained high intensity, the direction of decommissioning has maintained high stability, and is expected to accelerate under multiple factors such as supply and demand and cost; 2) The pig price is in the bottom area, and the downward space is very small, which is in an environment extremely conducive to the deregulation of production capacity; 3) The valuation is still at the bottom. In particular, the head enterprises are at the bottom corresponding to the valuation in 2022, which is sufficiently defensive and brings greater flexibility to the upward period of pig price. Therefore, it's still at a very good configuration timing point, so it's still at a very good configuration timing point. Continue to recommend pig sectors, continue to recommend pig sectors, focus on Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) etc.
II. Coal
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that the global coal supply lacks elasticity and the supply and demand pattern is tight. At present, China's coal production capacity has entered a contraction period, and the withdrawal of coal production capacity under "carbon neutralization" has accelerated. At the same time, the amendment to the new criminal law suppresses the overproduction of coal mines. Even if some nuclear increased production capacity is released, it is still difficult to change the supply tension in the medium-term 3-5 years; On the import side, the overall output of major international coal producers related to China has fallen sharply, and the import can not make up for the gap, and we are facing a shortage of global coal supply. China's supply gap is expected to expand year by year from 2022 to 2025.
In addition, Cinda Securities said that in the next 2-3 months, as all parts of the South enter the peak summer stage, coal supply will still face great pressure. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is the best stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities believes that under the premise of steady economic growth, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, coal consumption can still maintain positive growth. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, with the development of clean and efficient utilization technology of coal, China's coal has natural price advantages in traditional fossil energy (coal, oil and natural gas), which is expected to be more applied in coal power and non power fields. On the premise of steady economic growth in China, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. Invest in coal stocks and enjoy the dividends gradually realized by the cost advantage of coal. Policy regulation will cause the repetition of the investment process, but the long-term direction is clear.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that recently, coal enterprises have successively published their annual reports for 2021, and the trend of high score, red and high dividend is obvious. The coal industry is expected to have high medium and long-term prices without large capital expenditure, and the continuous high return to investors will be a major feature of the industry. Overall, the stock capacity is a scarce resource. Coal stocks are generally valued at 4-6 times, and the stability of price and profit expectations is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022.
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