Current investment tips:
Pay attention to the report “prospects for the first quarterly report of light industry and paper industry in 2022: steady growth performance of leading enterprises and hedging against external pressure” released this week.
Household: 22q1 leading enterprises still achieved steady growth in revenue and integrated the market; Customized profitability is under pressure, and the profitability of software is relatively stable. The 22q1 household industry as a whole is still facing the pressure brought by the epidemic and real estate. From January to February of 22, the zero amount of furniture society decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. By virtue of multi category, multi-channel and multi brand development, the head enterprise strengthens alpha, drives the head home furnishing company 22q1 to maintain a steady growth of 10% – 20%, and continues to integrate the market. On the profit side, the price increase of software home hedges the impact of cost side, and the profit performance of customized home 22q1 is under pressure.
Packaging and printing: 22q1 paper packaging cost pressure is expected to ease and release profit elasticity; The cost of metal packaging is high and the pressure on the profit side is large.
Papermaking: the prosperity of 22q1 pulp and paper varieties has improved, and the pulp price drives the rise of paper price; The traditional off-season of box tile paper has put pressure on profits.
Light industry consumption: the epidemic in March had an impact on stationery and other consumption, and the short-term income and profit side were under pressure. In the medium and long term, we are still optimistic about the products and channel changes of leading companies, deepen the development of multiple businesses, and hedge the external double reduction and the impact of the epidemic.
Pay attention to the published report “investment strategy of light industry and paper industry in spring 2022: strategic layout period of high-quality white horse”.
1. Household: the expectation of stable growth of short-term real estate drives the improvement of valuation; In the long run, the leading retail power has improved and the market share has been integrated. In the short term, the marginal improvement in the direction of real estate policy has driven the repair on the valuation beta in the post real estate cycle.
Following the positive attitude of six departments to maintain stability, the interest rate of housing loans in many places across the country has been reduced, and the purchase and sale restrictions have been relaxed. The valuation of the home industry is expected to be repaired. This week, the national standing committee will propose to timely use monetary policy tools such as RRR reduction to encourage large-scale consumption of automobiles and household appliances, increase policy support such as export tax rebate, and deploy a series of steady growth policies. On April 15, the central bank announced that it would reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022. The interest rate of housing loans in many places across the country has been reduced. In March of 22, the first house loan interest rate in China decreased by 13bp month on month, the second house loan interest rate decreased by 15bp month on month, and bank lending continued to accelerate. Since March, some cities such as Quzhou, Qinhuangdao, Harbin and Zhengzhou have liberalized the requirements of sales and purchase restrictions. China’s steady growth expectation remains unchanged. The real estate policy ensures the just needed and reasonable housing demand from the supply side and demand side, and continues to improve marginally. The medium and long-term home demand will be supported, and the home industry is expected to improve by the beta expectation.
Looking forward to the medium and long-term growth anchor, the leading enterprises will continue to seize the share by virtue of concentration + customer unit value. The retail capacity of the industry is divided, and the leading enterprises continue to seize the share. Leading household enterprises have gradually transitioned from single product competition to the era of whole house marketing. Through the improvement of supply chain capacity and the improvement of channel multi category operation capacity, it is expected to realize the continuous improvement of customer unit price and market share. The whole house marketing package activity tests the company’s scheme design, product pricing, efficient production efficiency of self-made products, and the ability of external supply chain construction and integration. The complexity of service operation of terminal channels has also increased significantly, including the understanding of the whole house product system, integrated distribution service delivery capacity, etc.
Companies with strong supply chain integration and channel service delivery capabilities will seize more market share in the whole house competition in the future.
Long term: the demand for secondary renewal of stock is stimulated, the long-term capacity of the industry is stable and can be expected, the new flow of the household industry and the innovation of new business model still need attention, and the industry will enter a differentiation period; Pay attention to the building and construction of long-term retail capacity of enterprises, and pay attention to the pattern optimization of subdivided tracks:
High quality enterprises rely on their comprehensive strength to expand their share, improve channel efficiency, cross the low business cycle, and steadily expand their profitability and roe.
2. The high-quality white horse with optimized competition pattern and stable profit growth returns to the strategic layout period. 1) under the upward background of [Chenguang] raw materials, the company is optimistic about the consumption of white horse with pricing power and anti inflation. With the optimization of channel structure and the upgrading of product structure, the company has gradually hedged the impact of external double reduction and epidemic situation, and the valuation has been digested to the bottom range of historical valuation. Pay attention to the 2021 annual report of Chenguang Co., Ltd. and comment on the deepening of the strategy of one body and two wings, the growth toughness of traditional core business, and the continued high growth of business of kelip and large retail stores.
2) [ Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) ] in addition to the original 3C packaging track, accelerate the layout of cigarette labels, wine bags, environmental protection packaging and other markets, create a new growth curve, and expand more revenue categories and tracks than expected; The integration trend of paper packaging leaders appears. With the gradual improvement of the profit margin of new products and the automation efficiency of intelligent factories, the profitability is expected to gradually recover.
Risk tip: repeated epidemics, sluggish overall downstream demand and blocked logistics, and profit pressure caused by the rise of raw materials.
