1) in terms of photovoltaic, overseas orders are still the main demand of Chinese component manufacturers, and the prices of silicon materials and components have increased one after another, reflecting the tight supply and demand structure. It is expected that with the distributed promotion and the launch of the Fengguang base project, the global installed capacity is expected to exceed the expectation in 2022, and high-quality companies in photovoltaic silicon materials, films, components, inverters and equipment are mainly recommended; In terms of wind power, Shandong Province subsidizes sea breeze, and the superimposed bidding maintains high-speed growth, which reflects the continuous improvement of the industry prosperity, and the probability of superimposed new energy subsidies increases. The installed capacity of wind power is expected to rebound significantly in 2022, so it is optimistic about the prospect of wind power and the opportunity of profit restoration; In terms of energy storage, overseas countries have accelerated the pace of new energy installation. It is expected that China's relevant policies will continue to be issued during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and the cost reduction is expected to promote the continuous outbreak of the energy storage industry. It is suggested to focus on the pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage industry chain. 2) The construction of new power system under the "double carbon goal" has been comprehensively promoted. It is expected that large-scale power grid upgrading investment and major projects will still be important counter cyclical regulation means. The power grid will increase digital and intelligent investment based on the needs of upgrading and transformation, which has become a new infrastructure application scenario and can be used as an important starting point for the secondary market to tap the investment opportunities on the power grid side.
New energy: Overseas photovoltaic orders remain strong, and the development of the global energy storage market is expected to exceed expectations.
1) photovoltaic: overseas orders are still the main demand of Chinese module manufacturers. There is a strong demand for modules in Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia. The price of superimposed silicon materials module has increased to a certain extent, indicating that the downstream demand continues to be strong. As the new capacity of silicon material in 2022q2 gradually contributes to the increment, the pressure on the supply chain is expected to ease steadily. It is expected that the industry will return to the main road of cost reduction and efficiency increase. At the same time, driven by China's scenery base, the distributed promotion of the whole County and the BIPV policy, the industry demand is expected to accelerate. It is expected that the annual installed capacity in China is expected to increase to 75-80gw. Combined with the accelerated construction progress of photovoltaic projects in Europe, the overseas installed capacity is expected to maintain a relatively high growth, The global installed capacity is expected to exceed 230gw It is recommended to focus on photovoltaic modules, inverters, silicon materials, adhesive films and equipment.
2) wind power: since 2022, land / sea wind bidding has continued to exceed expectations, reflecting the continuous improvement of the industry prosperity, and the low bidding price is expected to promote the continuous decline of wind power costs, while the concerns about the impact of the rise in the price of upstream raw materials on profits and shipments still suppress the sector. It is expected that driven by the continuous cost reduction of complete machine manufacturers and parts enterprises, the industry profit is expected to usher in an inflection point in Q2. With the accelerated upgrading of megawatts of wind power, the accelerated construction of large base projects and the overall price reduction of wind turbines, the installed capacity of onshore wind power is expected to rise rapidly, the yield is expected to be significantly repaired, and the overall installed capacity of the whole year is expected to reach more than 50gw; In 2022, offshore wind power will withdraw due to the subsidy policy or face the pressure of phased adjustment. However, with the centralized bidding period of provincial offshore wind projects, especially the medium and long-term planning objectives of Hainan and Shandong have been issued recently, laying the foundation and confidence for the recovery of installed capacity after 2023. At the same time, the technology upgrading and cost performance advantages of Chinese fan manufacturers have been greatly improved. It is expected that the fan export market is expected to accelerate growth in 2022.
3) energy storage: the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan and the plan for the modern energy system in the 14th five year plan issued recently have made clear policy guidelines for the distribution and storage of renewable energy, superimposed with the accelerated development of new energy power outside China. It is expected that 2022 will become the key time point for the industrialization of energy storage projects. The realization of the goal of carbon neutralization requires the large-scale construction of new energy such as wind power and photovoltaic. The effective operation of new energy power generation needs the support of new power system, and the development of energy storage is the key link of new power system. With the active promotion of China's policies, the introduction of multi place storage and distribution planning has helped to improve the scale of energy storage. It is expected that from the second half of 2022, the cost of wind power, photovoltaic manufacturing and energy storage system will decline, which is expected to continuously improve the economy of energy storage. We judge that from 2021 to 2025, the global energy storage market will release 20.1/32.7/52.5/65.3/93.2gw energy storage construction demand respectively, and the capacity demand under the comprehensive standby time will be 38.8/68.5/108.1/158.8/235.7gwh respectively, which is expected to drive the explosive growth of procurement demand for major energy storage technologies and related industrial chains.
Electrical equipment: the national development and Reform Commission again proposed a moderate advance investment, waiting for the landing of large-scale projects in the second quarter. On April 15, the national development and Reform Commission held a special press conference to introduce the situation of actively expanding effective investment. On the whole, there are three favorable conditions for stabilizing Investment: 1) the availability of special bonds of local governments is large; 2) There are many investment growth points (making up for weaknesses in infrastructure, promoting projects in the "double carbon" field, developing emerging industries, implementing new urbanization, etc.); 3) All localities and all sectors have high enthusiasm and great efforts to stabilize investment. Ou Hong, director of the investment department of the national development and Reform Commission, said that he would promote the construction of energy infrastructure in accordance with the requirements of moderately advanced infrastructure investment; Up to now, the national development and Reform Commission has approved 32 fixed asset investment projects for the 102 major projects proposed in the outline of the 14th five year plan, with a total investment of 520 billion yuan. With the gradual mitigation of the impact of the epidemic on the real economy and the continuous implementation of early reserve projects, the demand for large projects and related industrial chains in the second quarter of 2022 is worth looking forward to.
Risk factors: the installed capacity growth of new energy is lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies; The supporting capacity of the industrial chain is limited; Product prices fell sharply; The implementation of favorable policies is less than expected; Power grid investment is less than expected; UHV approval rhythm is lower than expected; The macroeconomic boom is lower than expected; The industrial boom is less than expected; The growth rate of power consumption slows down; Domestic substitution is less than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
Investment strategy: 1) with the carbon neutral goal in mind, the investment strategy: 1) with the carbon neutral goal in the middle of the carbon neutral target, during the "14th five year" period, the landscape's installed hubs are expected to be expected to go up further. In the photovoltaic field, it's recommended to focus on the recommendations in the photovoltaic field. Focus on the silicon that benefits from the ever tight supply and demand landscape. The silicon tap Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) 00438 Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) 0043 Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) 0043 Shanghai Jielong Industry Group Corporation Limited(600836) 883 Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) 68 Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) 83686868686860089 \ Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) etc., rubber film link faucet Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , carbon / carbon heat field quality supplier Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , battery laser equipment faucet Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , component series welding machine faucet Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ; In the field of wind power, it is suggested to focus on the Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) ; . 2) Electrical equipment sector: the investment in power grid is expected to enter a new boom period. In the field of power grid, it is recommended to focus on Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Shanghai Holystar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688330) , Windsun Science Technology Co.Ltd(688663) , Windsun Science Technology Co.Ltd(688663) , and the domestic comprehensive equipment leader Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) ; Under the rotation of industrial control cycle, focus on recommending domestic industrial control leader Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) ; In 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption reached 10.3%, focusing on the domestic low-voltage electrical appliance leaders Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Shanghai Liangxin Electrical Co.Ltd(002706) , and the power EPCO service provider Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) .
