With the recovery of the express industry, the stock price of Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) in the “three links and one reach” has taken the lead. Since the low point of 8.79 yuan on July 28, the cumulative maximum increase is as high as 107%.
Tonight, the first annual report of the express industry is released. According to the announcement of Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , the net profit in 2021 is expected to be 2-2.2 billion yuan, of which the net profit in the fourth quarter is expected to be 1.046-1.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 175% – 227%, and it is estimated that the month on month increase is 239% – 304% .
It is worth noting that since August 2021, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) express business single ticket revenue has become positive year-on-year, and the improvement range is the largest among A-share Tongda companies, and the corresponding stock price trend is also the strongest .
As of today, a total of 21 institutions have predicted the annual performance of Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) in 2021 within 6 months, of which the estimated average net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.622 billion yuan and the maximum is 1.905 billion yuan; The actual forecast value announced in the after hours announcement is 2-2.2 billion yuan. Measured by the upper limit of net profit forecast of RMB 2.2 billion, which is 35.6% higher than the average forecast value of the institution, can be described as significantly exceeding the expectation of the institution .
What are the underlying reasons behind the stock price and performance of Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ?
The analysis shows that under the background of the cessation of vicious competition, the stabilization of industry prices and the shift of each company’s strategy from share priority to profit priority, Yuantong’s investment in the digital and automation end is about to usher in a dividend period, or will enjoy the triple benefits of steady expansion of scale, slight increase of single ticket income and continuous improvement of cost .
In September, October and November 2021, three rounds of price increases in the express industry were gradually implemented, and the single ticket income of each express enterprise was better. Under the changes, the repair speed of single ticket income of Yuantong led the industry. Since July 2021, the single ticket income of Yuantong has maintained a positive year-on-year and month on month growth, compared with the low point in July 2021, Yuantong’s single ticket revenue in November 2021 has increased by 28.22% to 2.59 yuan, leading the whole industry .
By November 2021, Yuantong’s business volume had increased by 34.07%, accounting for 15.26%, and express business volume ranked third in the industry .
In terms of cost reduction and efficiency increase, the data show that the average single vehicle load of Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) has increased from 7922 tickets in 2019 to 12000 tickets in the first half of 2021; the single ticket transportation cost is 0.51 yuan, a decrease of 26% compared with 2019. In addition, after digitizing the management and control efficiency of transfer center posts, the unloading efficiency increased from an average of 900 pieces / h in September 2020 to 1400 pieces / h in March 2021, increased the efficiency by more than 50% and the per capita efficiency by more than 40% .
According to the research report released by Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) analyst license and others on January 6, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) short and medium-term price rise resonates with pattern improvement, and the roe center is expected to achieve systematic rise . In addition, Yuantong, which has its own freight shipping company and international freight forwarding resources, has preliminarily completed the layout of international express. With the blessing of cross-border e-commerce logistics, one of the strongest dividends at present , Yuantong is expected to rely on its own trunk transport capacity resources to deeply cultivate core routes, build competitive advantages in cross-border logistics tracks and open up long-term growth space.
Analysts predict that the future market value of Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) is expected to reach 69.7 billion yuan to 104.1 billion yuan (as of today’s close, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) has a total market value of 58.2 billion yuan, that is, the future market value is close to doubling).
On December 3, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) disclosed the fixed increase results. The fixed increase issuance price was 14.04 yuan / share. The total amount of funds raised this time was about 3.79 billion yuan. The fixed increase issuance objects were finally determined to be 16, a number of “top flow” institutions outside China, including Harvest Fund, UBS AG and Gaoyi assets, appeared .
However, Gao Yi is not Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ‘s new friend. According to the third quarterly report, at the end of the period, Gao yixiaofeng No. 2 letter fund held Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) 4047 million shares, accounting for 1.28% of the total share capital and the ninth largest shareholder of Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) .
(source: financial Associated Press)
