China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) 04 released the Research Report on 18 April, saying: maintain the recommended rating of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry.
The loss range of this week was further explored, and the pig cycle investment was on the eve of the outbreak: on April 15, the average price of live pigs in some provinces and cities in China was 12.68 yuan / kg, up + 3.17% from last week; The profits of self breeding and outsourcing piglet breeding are -531.70 yuan / head and -314.03 yuan / head respectively. This trend is expected to continue. Since the phased bottom on March 25, pig prices have rebounded slightly and rebounded for two consecutive weeks. According to the regular price trend in the past 15 years, the period from May to August is the month on month upward phase of pig price, which means the arrival of seasonal consumption market. However, considering that the supply side is still in a significant surplus state in the second quarter (the sample speculates that March 22 is the high point, and then fluctuates downward), the trend of pig price may rebound slightly in the short term, but it is still at the bottom. As for the trend of pig price, we believe that there must be a time point for the second bottom of pig price, but the reversal process may be different from the past. The reversal of the past cycle presents a V-shape, while the current cycle is more inclined to the bottom of the arc according to the current data. The circular bottom trend here refers to the period of “rebound after one bottom – bottom grinding – second bottom – reverse upward”. Since the bottom was hit in October of 21, the rebound time at the bottom was short and fast (a little more than one month), and then continued to fall. The bottom lingered for a long time and suffered a large loss. This trend also explains the symmetrical effect of ultra-high profits in the upward cycle, but it does not correspond to the symmetry of time. We are waiting for the pig price to come out of the bottom of the circular arc and usher in the real reversal of the pig cycle (22q3 is expected, and the possibility of advance is not ruled out). With the evolution of the market and the trend of the data, we will continue to revise the deduction conclusion. In the process of pig cycle investment, the judgment of pig price inflection point is not the whole picture of attention, it is only a signal to meet the main rising wave. Therefore, we believe that the allocation should be carried out in the stage of continuous elimination of fertile sows + bottom grinding of pig price, pay close attention to the breeding stocks with relatively low stock price, wait for the sharp elimination of fertile sows + the arrival of the inflection point of pig price, and meet the upward cycle of pig price + the accelerated upward stage of breeding stock price. Pig cycle investment is on the eve of the outbreak, valuation repair is nearly completed, and the significance of allocation is still significant.
The price of yellow feather chicken remained volatile, and the price of white feather broiler seedlings rose rapidly: according to the data of xinmu.com, the prices of fast big chicken and medium speed chicken were 6.07 yuan / kg and 6.69 yuan / kg on April 15, with a month on month ratio of – 4.41% and – 2.19% over the weekend. Since November 21, the price of yellow feather chicken has fluctuated upward, the monthly average price has fluctuated upward, and the overall price is at a high level. In March, the monthly average price of yellow chicken in China was about 7.43 yuan / kg, down from -0.46 yuan / kg in February From the perspective of upstream capacity, we maintain the viewpoint of 22h2 inflection point. In terms of white feather chickens, on April 15, the prices of white feather broilers and broiler seedlings in the main production areas were 9.1 yuan / kg and 2.7 yuan / feather respectively, up + 6.56% and + 42.11% from last week. It is suggested to pay long-term attention to the extension of the industry to the C-end and the development potential of the food end.
The agricultural sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.14pct: this week’s agriculture + 1.14%, the Shanghai Composite Index – 1.25% and the CSI 300-0.99% in the same period. Planting, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing and fishery are the top performers in agriculture, with + 3.55%, + 1.94%, + 1.28% respectively, while comprehensive agriculture and animal health care are behind, with – 1.69%, – 4.10% respectively.
Investment suggestion: the pig cycle is the market of the sector. The first choice for individual stocks is “small and beautiful” pig enterprises Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , etc; Second, the “leading” pig enterprises Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , etc.
Risk warning: risk of animal epidemic; The risk of pigs not reaching the expected level.
