On April 18, when the pig price rose sharply, the A-share pig industry sector also saw a sudden rise. Someone in an investor group exclaimed: the short position of pig futures has been closed!
Insiders said that the current strength of pig futures prices was mainly boosted by the improvement of the spot market. From a fundamental point of view, the marketing plans of various breeding groups in April were reduced month on month, and the supply pressure was improved. In terms of demand, the new cases of covid-19 epidemic have turned around recently, the impact on consumption will also be reduced, the supply and demand pattern of pig market tends to improve, and the probable rate of pig price will be stronger in the futureP align = “center” pig futures big short positions closed
At the end of April 18, pig futures rose violently. The main 2205 contract reached a maximum of 13580 yuan / ton, a new high since March 10, closing at 13400 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.51%, and the positions decreased by 9387 to 28670 during the day.
Source: Wenhua Finance
Pig futures 2209 contract rose more significantly. At the end of the trading, it touched the daily limit of 18015 yuan / ton, and the final closing rose by 7.34%. The daily position increased by 4479 hands to 43561 hands.
On the occasion of the sharp rise in pig prices, someone in an investor group exclaimed: the big short positions of pig futures have been closed! After consulting the position trading data of the top 20 futures companies of pig futures published by the Dachang stock exchange, CSI Jun found that the total trading volume of 2205 contracts was 28012, an increase of 15495, including 13924, a decrease of 4212, 20874 and 3581; The total trading volume of seats of 2209 contract futures company was 34272 hands, an increase of 25452 hands, including 23238 hands, an increase of 3436 hands, 30460 hands and 3352 handsP align = “center” April 18 pig futures 2205 contract p align = “center” top 20 futures company seat trading position data
Data source: Dachang Institute
Overall, at the time of the exchange of main contracts, the signs of long position increase and short position reduction are not obvious. The data of the past three trading days also showed no obvious signs of short position reduction.
On the disk, the latest round of decline of pig futures began in October last year. Until last Friday, the trend was constantly bottoming out. Today, the disk jumped high and rose sharplyP align = “center” spot market improvement drives market sentiment
With the big rise in pig futures, the big rise in pig futures is accompanied by the big rise in pig futures, and a share of the pig industry sector of a share is also seen today. There is also a different pull up in the A-share pig industry sector today. Among them, the Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 330 up more than 7%, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) up more than 5%, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) up more than 4%, Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) up nearly 3%.
In addition, the breeding ETF (159865) rose 4.10%, with a turnover of 130 million yuan and a premium on the floor.
On the news side, the data of the National Bureau of statistics on April 18 showed that at the end of the first quarter, the number of pigs was 422.53 million, an increase of 1.6% year-on-year, including 41.85 million sows that can breed.
“According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, as of the end of March, the number of fertile sows had decreased to 41.85 million, and the production capacity continued to be reduced, which has been close to balance, forming support for the expected improvement of pig prices in the future.” Guoxin futures analyst Qin duogui said.
Hubei Mailyard Share Co.Ltd(600107) futures pig researcher Zhang Ruihao believes that today’s pig futures rose sharply, mainly due to the continuous rise of pig prices since last week, and the futures market reacted to the performance of the spot market.
According to the data, since the middle of April, the price of live pigs has continued to strengthen. As of April 18, the average price of live pigs was 12.96 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.6 yuan / kg compared with April 11.
With regard to the continuous strengthening trend of pig prices since the middle of April, jiangzhenfei, chief analyst of Guoyuan futures Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) . The Dragon Boat Festival holiday is approaching, which belongs to the small peak of pork consumption of terminal families in the first half of the year, and slaughtering enterprises need to prepare goods for the festival. In addition, the state continued to collect and store, stabilize market sentiment, increase market sentiment, slow down the pace of marketing, and support the gradual rebound of pig prices.
In terms of fundamentals, at the end of the first quarter, there were 41.85 million breeding sows, which was 2.07% higher than the basic amount of 41 million set by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas.
Jiang Zhenfei said that the production rate of sows on schedule is expected to be reduced to the specified basic level from May to June this year, indicating that the production capacity of breeding pigs will reach the balance between supply and demand from March to April next year, that is, the breeding industry will enter a normal profit cycle. “Although this data is of little significance to the short-term real market, its biggest role is to give the breeding side confidence in the future.”P align = “center” pig price shocks are more likely to be strong
From a fundamental point of view, according to Qin duogui’s analysis, the marketing plans of various breeding groups in April were reduced month on month, and the supply pressure was improved. In terms of demand, the covid-19 epidemic situation in some regions has been dynamically cleared recently, which means that the impact on consumption will also be reduced, and the overall supply and demand pattern tends to improve. He believes that China’s pig market has begun to improve, and it is expected that there is a high probability of strong future pig price shock.
Zhang Ruihao said: “if we simply look at the annual trend of pork supply and demand, considering the expectation of a slight decline in the annual supply and the significant reduction of imported pork, there is an upward basis for pig prices. However, if we refine it to the monthly price rhythm, the current market demand is weak and the supply is slightly surplus, the current upward trend of pig prices seems to have no support.”
In terms of investment, Xie Zhiyou, an analyst of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry of galaxy securities, said that in the process of pig cycle investment, the judgment of pig price inflection point is not the whole picture of attention, but just a signal to meet the main rising wave. Therefore, we should allocate in the stage of continuous elimination of fertile sows + bottom grinding of pig price, pay close attention to the breeding stocks with relatively low stock price, wait for the sharp elimination of fertile sows + inflection point of pig price, and meet the upward cycle of pig price + accelerated upward stage of breeding stock price. Pig cycle investment is on the eve of the outbreak, valuation repair is nearly completed, and the significance of allocation is still significant.
