Last week, the liquor industry rebounded significantly. We believe that it is mainly related to the expected warming of the market on the marginal relaxation of epidemic control and the implementation of various economic stimulus policies. Meanwhile, Fen Baijiu reported slightly faster than expected in the first quarter, and strengthened the 1 quarter’s robustness of the liquor industry. The above related factors are in line with our previous judgment. At present, the number of cities with enhanced epidemic control tends to expand. It is necessary to pay close attention to whether the changes of epidemic prevention policies in different regions may have a great impact on some wine enterprises; The follow-up mainly depends on the implementation of the steady growth policy, which is very important to the recovery of the industry boom. The long-term view remains unchanged. At present, the valuation has entered a reasonable range, and the value of long-term allocation has appeared at present. Baijiu takes into account the fundamentals of robustness, anti cyclical and pricing advantages. It is recommended that high-end Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) should be allocated first. It is suggested to pay attention to the marginal changes of local wine and sub high-end wine, and recommend Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) etc. Although beer has the potential negative impact of the aggravation of the epidemic, it is generally phased. At the same time, the cost pressure may be effectively hedged, and there are allocation opportunities under underestimated value.
Baijiu: rebound is obvious, the control of epidemic situation is relaxed and the policy of easing is expected to pull. CITIC Baijiu index rose 3.4% last week, winning the A 5.9pcts. of ten thousand We believe that the beautiful performance last week is mainly related to the expected warming of the market on the marginal relaxation of epidemic control and the implementation of various economic stimulus policies. Meanwhile, Fen Baijiu reported slightly faster than expected in the first quarter, and strengthened the 1 quarter’s robustness of the liquor industry. The impact of the epidemic is still expanding, and the impact of the phased impact of Baijiu consumption is inevitable. Although the demand fluctuation in the off-season is not yet having a trend effect, we still need to pay attention to whether the change of the epidemic prevention policy in different regions has caused the expected impact. However, we need to worry about the long growth. We believe that consumption will still rebound in the direction of steady growth policy. Baijiu, as the representative track of the consumption boom, is more resilient. At present, the industry valuation has entered a relatively reasonable range. From the perspective of 1-2 years, the allocation value has been obvious. Considering the advantages of fundamental robustness, anti cyclicality and pricing power, it is recommended to configure high-end: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . It is suggested to pay attention to the marginal changes of local wine and sub high-end wine, and recommend Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) etc.
Beer: it also benefited from the inflection point expectation of the epidemic, superimposed the policy landing expectation, and rebounded strongly. CITIC beer industry rose 13.4% last week and rebounded strongly after substantial adjustment in the early stage. From the situation in March, we expect the overall growth rate of Qingdao and China Resources affected by the epidemic to be 10% – 20%. Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) benefits from the expansion of ussu, and the overall situation is expected to be the best. Last week, the expectation of optimizing the epidemic control policy and weakening the impact margin was strong. The beer industry was sensitive to the impact of the epidemic and made significant adjustments in the early stage. Last week, it rebounded significantly. We believe that if the epidemic front is dragged into the peak season of beer sales, beer sales will be under pressure in 2022; If the epidemic situation can be controlled in early May, we expect that the sales volume of beer leaders will still rise in 2022 (taking Tsing beer as an example, the proportion of March / April / may / June 2020 in the annual sales volume will be about 9% / 9% / 10% / 13%).
Dynamic tracking of key information of the industry: Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) wholesale price rises slightly; The factory price of qinghualang is 100 yuan; The first quarter express of Fenjiu met expectations.
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) wholesale price increased slightly, and the factory price of qinghualang was 100 yuan. Last week, the wholesale price of bulk / box Mao was about 2640 / 2830 yuan, with little fluctuation and month on month change. Last week, the prices of rare Maotai and Chinese Zodiac Maotai (year of the tiger) gradually stabilized. The wholesale price of puwu is about 970 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan month on month. The company has controlled the goods and supported the price for more than half a month, and the effect is gradually showing. The wholesale price of Guojiao 1573 is 920 yuan, which is basically the same month on month. At present, many areas began to collect money in April. According to the report of Weijiu, the factory price of 53 degree 500ml qinghualang is planned to be increased by 100 yuan. Since the price increase of puwu in December 2021, the prices of large items with a certain volume such as Guojiao 1573 and qinghualang have increased one after another. If the price transmission is smooth, the price of 1000 yuan is expected to move up as a whole.
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : release the first quarterly express, which is slightly higher than expected on the whole. We expect the company’s remittance progress in the first quarter to be about 35%, and the overall dynamic sales situation in the market is good. Looking forward to 2022q2, the company will continue to make steady progress according to the established rhythm. We judge that the collection level will be about 20% (the collection level in April is expected to be in the large single digit), and the whole year will still advance towards the target of 26-27 billion yuan.
Risk factors: policy changes; Consumer demand is less than expected; Increased competition; Food safety issues.
Investment suggestion: at present, the number of cities with enhanced epidemic control tends to expand, so we need to pay close attention to the impact of changes in epidemic prevention policies in different regions on different wine enterprises; The follow-up mainly depends on the implementation of the steady growth policy, which is very important to the recovery of the industry boom. The long-term view remains unchanged. After the continuous adjustment of the current valuation, the value of long-term allocation has emerged. Baijiu takes into account the fundamentals of robustness, anti cyclical and pricing advantages.
\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ； It is suggested to pay attention to the marginal changes of local wine and sub high-end wine, and recommend Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) etc. Although beer has the potential negative impact of the aggravation of the epidemic, it is generally phased. At the same time, the cost pressure may be effectively hedged, and there are allocation opportunities under underestimated value.
