Main points
Commercial housing sales fell, and market confidence needs to be further repaired. With the implementation of urban policies into the deep-water area, the regulation and control policies are relaxed in many places. At the same time, the scope of regulation and control relaxation of the real estate market is gradually expanding to high-level cities such as Suzhou and Nanjing. It still takes some time from policy relaxation to market confidence restoration. With the superposition of the overall improvement of commercial housing sales in the first half of 21 years, there is a certain high base impact, and the year-on-year decline of real estate sales in the first quarter is large. In the first quarter, the sales area of commercial housing was 263 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%, and the sales volume of commercial housing was 2.61 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 25.60%.
In Q1, the first batch of centralized land supply was opened in few cities, and the land purchase area fell sharply year-on-year. 22 city centralized land supply not only affects the rhythm of land acquisition by developers, but also urges developers to reasonably adjust capital preparation. In the first quarter, few cities opened the first batch of centralized land supply and land auction, and the land purchase area decreased significantly year-on-year. At the same time, under the debt repayment peak in the first half of the year, developers, especially private developers, have great capital pressure and low willingness to take land. From January to March, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises was 13.39 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 41.8%; The land transaction price was 67.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.90%.
The construction area increased slightly, and the newly started and completed projects weakened. In the first quarter, real estate sales were under pressure, developers’ capital flow pressure increased, and new construction enthusiasm was insufficient. In the first quarter, the new construction area of commercial residential buildings nationwide was 216million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 20.30%. Driven by “guaranteed delivery”, the construction area increased slightly. The construction area of commercial housing in China was 5.69 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%; The completed area of commercial housing in China was 123 million square meters, down 11.30% year-on-year.
The completed investment in real estate development increased slightly by 0.7%, and the funds in place at the financing end decreased more year-on-year. In the first quarter, the completed investment in real estate development was 2.78 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%; Among them, the residential investment was 2.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.7%. The cumulative year-on-year decline of funds in place at the financing end expanded. In the first quarter, the funds in place of real estate development enterprises were 3.82 trillion yuan, down 19.6% year-on-year; Among them, China’s loans were 552.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%; Self raised funds amounted to 1.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%; Deposits and advance receipts amounted to 1.23 trillion yuan, down 31% year-on-year; Personal mortgage loans amounted to 636.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.8%.
Investment advice
With the implementation of urban policies into the deep-water area, many places have relaxed the regulation and control policies, but the restoration of market confidence still needs some time. In terms of capital, Matthew effect is prominent, and enterprises with low financing cost and land acquisition advantage may benefit. Relevant targets: (1) leading real estate enterprises with low financing cost and can continuously obtain land in first and second tier cities, such as Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ( Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) . SH), Greentown China (3900. HK), Longhu group (0960. HK), Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ( Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) . SZ), etc; (2) Real estate enterprises that are less affected by the “two concentration” land policy and have diversified land acquisition methods, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ( Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) . SH), Baolong real estate (1238. HK), etc.
Risk tips
Real estate policy regulation exceeded expectations; Real estate sales fell short of expectations.
