panel overview
On Monday, A-Shares bottomed out after opening low, and the gem index took the lead in turning red and leading the rise. On the disk, auto parts, semiconductors, photovoltaic, agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishing, motors, transportation equipment, power supply equipment, non-metallic materials and other industries led the increase; Securities, diversified finance, traditional Chinese medicine, coal, insurance, banking, energy metals, steel, logistics and other industries led the decline. In terms of theme stocks, chicken concept, aquaculture, pork concept, transgenic, prefabricated vegetable concept, automobile chip, IGBT concept, lidar and so on were among the top gainers; Unified big market, brokerage concept, Shangtang concept, underground pipe network, JD finance, exclusive drugs, vitamins and so on led the decline.
message surface
the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points and released long-term funds of about 530 billion yuan
In order to support the development of the real economy and promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs, the people’s Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the deposit reserve ratio of 5%). In order to increase the support for small and micro enterprises and “agriculture, rural areas and farmers”, for urban commercial banks without inter provincial operation and agricultural commercial banks with deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, an additional 0.25 percentage point will be reduced on the basis of reducing the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage point. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.1%.
Shanghai Municipal Commission of economy and information technology issued guidelines on epidemic prevention and control of industrial enterprises returning to work
On April 16, the Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission issued the guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation of industrial enterprises returning to work and production in Shanghai (First Edition). The guidelines put forward that under the premise of compacting the main responsibility of enterprises and ensuring controllable risks, implement closed-loop management, effectively and orderly promote the resumption of work and production of enterprises, and ensure the safety and stability of the industrial chain and supply chain. According to the reporter of China Securities News, the first batch of enterprises to resume work and production include many operation guarantee and economic support enterprises in addition to enterprises in key industries such as integrated circuit, automobile manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and biomedicine.
the Ministry of industry and information technology and the national development and Reform Commission investigated the operation difficulties of the automobile industry, and some automobile enterprises suggested to restart the “automobile to the countryside”
The first financial reporter learned exclusively that recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the national development and Reform Commission launched a survey on the production and operation of the automobile industry. According to people close to the China Automobile Association, representatives of automobile enterprises suggested another round of “automobile to the countryside” to stimulate automobile consumption. On April 13, the China Automobile Industry Association issued a notice to China’s major automobile enterprises. The notice said that the State Council, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of industry and information technology attach great importance to the operation of the automobile industry. In March, the year-on-year growth rate of automobile production and sales dropped significantly, and the terminal market was more depressed. The steady growth situation of the automobile industry this year is not optimistic.
Jufeng viewpoint
Pre market judgment: the outer market is closed due to Easter; However, the situation in Russia and Ukraine escalated and crude oil prices rose again. A-share energy stocks are expected to perform on Monday. In addition, the hot topic of covid-19 on the prevention and treatment of Lianhua Qingwen on the Internet may lead to the make-up decline of traditional Chinese medicine stocks, while the covid-19 specific drugs sector may be differentiated. After trading on Friday, the central bank announced the reduction of the reserve requirement as scheduled, but the proportion of 0.25% was a new low this year, which was widely interpreted as lower than expected. The announcement of orderly resumption of work and production by Shanghai is of great significance to boost market confidence.
The three major A-share indexes collectively opened low, with the Shanghai index opening down 0.79%, the Shenzhen Composite Index opening down 0.78%, the gem index opening down 1.00%, and chicken breeding, gold and auto parts opening slightly higher; Coal, unified market, securities, logistics, real estate, etc. opened significantly lower.
After the opening, the agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery sector fluctuated higher; Cement and building materials, logistics, traditional Chinese medicine, banking, securities, energy metals, Internet services and other sectors made up for the decline; The semiconductor sector stabilized and rebounded due to the news of Shanghai’s resumption of work and production. Then, track stocks such as photovoltaic and lithium batteries stopped falling and rebounded simultaneously, and the gem index turned red. After the first quarter GDP data was released, it was lower than expected, and the real estate sector rose again.
At present, the bottom of technology stocks rebounded, while the cyclical industries such as finance, real estate, coal, building materials and steel, which had previously supported the market, made up for the decline. Previously, we have always stressed that since the market trading volume has not been enlarged, this means that the capital is still dominated by on-site flow, there is no incremental capital entry, and the pattern of market box shock will not be broken. It is difficult to sustain the market of Shanghai Stock Index driven by defensive sectors. If the track stocks stop falling, the market will have hope to really get out of the bottom. From today’s morning trading, things are moving in a good direction.
Investment suggestion: at present, the factors that suppress the sentiment of A-share investors are still geopolitics, the contraction of the US dollar, China’s epidemic and other factors. The steady growth policy will provide support for A-share, but the influence of the other two factors has the signal of resurgence. The central bank’s announcement to cut the reserve requirement by 0.25% and Shanghai’s announcement to orderly promote the resumption of work and production of enterprises will dilute the recent panic of a shares. The market has just made a second bottom. From the perspective of market style, blue chips that underestimate low prices still have prominent defensive attributes, while growth stocks that overestimate high prices are still unstable factors in the market. A-share box shock can focus on three main lines of bargain hunting: first, companies whose quarterly growth exceeded expectations; Second, new and old infrastructure benefiting from steady growth; Third, aviation, airport, tourism and other sectors facing the inflection point in the post epidemic era. For some of the sectors that have risen sharply, they can be cashed at high prices.
