Production side observation: this week (4.11-4.16), the steel operating rate continued the upward trend of last week, and the inventory decreased; The operating rate of coal decreased month on month and year on year; The operating rate of chemical industry is differentiated, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt unit continues to recover, but it is still at a seasonal low level; The operating rate of automobile tires picked up. On the whole, the differentiation trend of project operating rate continues, and the overall prosperity is slightly lower than that of last week.
Demand side observation: this week (4.11-4.16), the real estate did not continue to pick up, and the land transaction area and commercial housing transaction area of each line of cities fell to varying degrees; The pace of recovery of infrastructure has slowed down; The pressure of demand contraction increased, and the year-on-year decline of subway passenger volume in Shanghai continued to expand due to the epidemic; New cases of covid-19 pneumonia in China increased from last week (4.4-4.10). The new cases of covid-19 pneumonia in the world decreased compared with last week (4.4-4.10), and the export boom decreased.
Price trend: this week (4.11-4.16) Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price index fell, and the average wholesale price of pork fell by 0.3 yuan / kg compared with last week; International crude oil prices rose by US $0.3/barrel compared with last week, ending the downward trend for two consecutive weeks.
Risk warning: policy uncertainty; Fundamentals changed more than expected.
