Today, there are a lot of news on and off the court. Let’s sort it out one by one.
First of all, the most important thing is that the National Bureau of statistics released the economic data of the first quarter. In the first quarter, China’s GDP increased by 4.8% year-on-year and 1.3% month on month over the fourth quarter of 2021.
The overall data is better than expected, but the pressure on some sub industries is more obvious, such as consumption. The total retail sales of social consumer goods in the first quarter was 108659 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 3.3%, while the total retail sales of social consumer goods in March decreased by 3.5% year-on-year.
Although from the breakdown data in March, the expected situation is not ideal, it is easy to understand because of the superposition of the impact of the epidemic, which is actually expected.
Considering that some areas are still affected by the epidemic in the first half of April, if the epidemic can be effectively controlled and all production can return to normal in this month, April is likely to be the end of the market for economic growth this year.
The current unsatisfactory situation just indicates that there will be greater stimulus in the future, which is also the reason for the rise of the gem index today. In addition, the national teleconference on ensuring smooth logistics and promoting the stability of industrial chain and supply chain held this morning can be regarded as a heavy signal to stabilize the overall situation of economic development.
For a shares, the specific day of recovery does not actually account for the decisive factor. After all, the stock market is speculation expectations. The important thing is the formation of recovery expectations and the trend from uncertainty to certainty. In this way, the risk appetite of the market can recover and the confidence of the market can be repaired.
The main stock markets in Europe and the United States and Hong Kong stock markets have been closed for the holidays since last Friday. Today’s A-shares are a little lonely. Only the Japanese stock market dances with A-shares. Compared with the “Silence” of the Nikkei index all day, A-shares can be described as extremely wonderful – one is the sharp adjustment of undervalued value, the collective “sky floor” of high-standard stocks, and the other is the blood returning of the boom sector.
China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) share price plummeted, and the hot search attracted the attention of the whole market. As soon as the market opened, financial stocks opened low, and everyone can look at it with an ordinary mind. After all, the central bank’s RRR reduction is less than market expectations, which is bad for the financial industry, and it is normal to open low.
However, shortly after the opening, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) began to speed up the diving, and fell from 2% to 8% in one breath. The trading volume also expanded rapidly. The market was a little confused about this: isn’t the rate of reduction less than expected, can it fall like this? Bullying our old people and not talking about martial virtue?
The latest response to the rumors has come. At more than 5:00 this afternoon, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) announced that the board of directors of the company reviewed and approved the proposal on the removal of Mr. Tian Huiyu, and agreed to remove Mr. Tian Huiyu from the post of China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) president and director and appoint another; It is agreed that Mr. Wang Liang will preside over the China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) work, which will take effect from the date of deliberation and approval by the board of directors.
Inexplicably, because of the sharp decline in rumors, the saddest thing is the shareholders, and the most distressed shareholder may be the familiar star fund manager. As everyone knows, since the Baijiu recession, star fund managers bought bank shares last year, and for some time they have achieved the effect of “carrying goods”. It’s really sad to step on thunder.
Such a fall in bank stocks dragged down the whole financial stocks, securities companies and insurance also led the decline, and real estate stocks were also smashed in the afternoon. There are not a few stocks that “worship heaven and earth” (i.e. heaven and earth floor) together, Chongqingyukaifaco.Ltd(000514) , Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) , Langold Real Estate Co.Ltd(002305) staged heaven and earth floor, Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) staged earth and sky fried board, Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co.Ltd(603648) staged earth and sky board. The vigorous trend of high-standard stocks with recognition can not be borne by the small heart of ordinary people.
DAGO believes that Chongqingyukaifaco.Ltd(000514) , Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) , plus Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) and other stocks that hype the “second wave” after these adjustments, with Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) “triple board” having the highest number, it is the ceiling of speculation at present. For the high-level stocks that have risen sharply, it is better to minimize the impulse to pursue the rise and strike the board, and give priority to the varieties with logic rising potential.
Banks, real estate and insurance that had been good before were biased by China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and fell collectively. However, DAGO believes that a strong sector as a whole will not change the trend due to an emergency of a company. It can be adjusted to the support level and can continue to be observed.
The adjustment of the undervalued sector became the background sector, and the growth stocks ushered in a big counterattack. Photovoltaic, chips, auto parts, scientific innovation and so on finally returned to the blood, and there was a long lost style shift in the market.
It is uncertain whether this turn is a “reflection” of the day or a symbolic sign. DAGO believes that as far as the current market situation is concerned, the boom sector can only be treated as an oversold rebound. Whether to switch the style needs to be observed, and even if it takes shape, there is a process of repeated confirmation.
It should be said that the situation of gem today is consistent with the prediction, and the probability of short-term low is relatively high. Yesterday said two directions, the recent strong stocks and oversold. Strong sectors need to maintain a strong structure. In the process of adjustment, it is a process of removing the weak and retaining the strong. If you resist, you can continue to take the bull.
In the oversold direction, auto parts are currently the strongest, followed by semiconductors. These two industries account for a considerable proportion in the Yangtze River Delta, which is related to the resumption of work and production in Shanghai.
Many people think that auto parts will warm up the track. DAGO thinks these are two different logics. Auto parts go through the industry dilemma reversal under the resumption of work and production. In fact, they go through the economic recovery line; The logic of the institutional track stocks is different from that of the rebound trend after falling for so long and the meat cutting at the bottom of some large public offerings.
There is also the digital economy, which has rebounded quite well. These oversold rebound sectors can be seen as long and short. When they encounter the pressure level, they can reduce their positions appropriately. They should also be careful of the continuous sideways after the rebound, and the continuous sideways is not a good signal.
Compared with last Friday, today’s market contraction is obvious. It is expected that the low volume will continue in the first half of the week, and most of the funds will go high and go low recently. Therefore, it is still recommended to avoid high subject stocks in the short term, especially in the window period with more intensive financial reports at the end of the month.
At the same time, the obvious contraction also shows that the market confidence is insufficient and there are more wait-and-see investors. Don’t be optimistic if you copy to the end. You should still control your positions and pay more attention to the direction of early oversold + performance + in line with the guidance of future policies.
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