The auto industry in Jilin and Shanghai resumed work more than expected, and the margin of the auto electronics industry chain improved. In the past month (3.17-4.17), auto prices rose + the epidemic stopped production, the supply and demand of the auto industry were weak, and the companies related to the auto electronics industry chain continued to decline. According to the news of Shanghai Securities News, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) 418 will start the pressure test of resumption of work and production; Tesla and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) respective factories in Shanghai will also follow the Shanghai epidemic prevention policy. On April 11, China FAW in Jilin Province has also fully started to resume work, and the first batch of 47 parts enterprises are returning to work in an orderly manner. The resumption of work in Jilin and Shanghai auto industries exceeded expectations, which greatly boosted market confidence and sounded the horn of rebound. The analysis is as follows:
1) the market is not only worried about the shutdown of automobile enterprises, but also worried about the impact of epidemic spillover on supporting industrial chain companies in the Yangtze River Delta. We believe that the biggest limiting factor lies in the blocking of logistics, the orderly restoration of smooth logistics, and the shortage of industrial chain will be well improved. 2) The automobile production in Jilin and Shanghai, the hardest hit areas of the epidemic, accounts for about 20% of the country. The production has been suspended for less than one month. The current stage has a direct impact on the overall automobile production of the whole year of less than 2%, while the monthly decline of relevant automobile electronics companies has reached 20%. The market pessimism will be gradually repaired with the resumption of production.
Give priority to ensuring the resumption of work and production in the semiconductor industry, and the enterprise has full anti epidemic resilience. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology has sent a working group to Shanghai to concentrate resources and give priority to ensuring the resumption of work and production in key industries such as integrated circuits.
According to the industrial chain survey, Shanghai semiconductor enterprises have shown strong resilience in this round of epidemic. According to the industrial chain, 1) wafer factories: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , Huahong group and other wafer foundry factories in Shanghai adopt fully closed management, and Huahong group has 6000 employees stationed in the factory to ensure normal production. 2) Seal and test plants: most of the seal and test plants in Shanghai are foreign-funded / Taiwan companies. At present, there is no A-share listed company. Some seal and test plants have been affected in this round of epidemic, and the poor logistics has a certain impact on the transportation of seal and test plants. 3) Chip design company: R & D personnel working at home does not affect the overall R & D progress, and there are many logistics problems faced by chip delivery plans, which has little overall impact. 4) Equipment and material companies: National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , shengmei Shanghai and other semiconductor materials and equipment companies have their main factories in Shanghai. At present, all employees are stationed in the factory, and their basic production and operation are relatively normal, which has not been greatly affected by the epidemic.
The electronics sector has pulled back to the bottom of history and has long been optimistic about automotive electronics + domestic substitution. At present, the market has been overly pessimistic about the electronics sector. Since the beginning of the year, the CS electronics sector has fallen by 32.10%, ranking first in the decline list. In terms of the estimated water level, the current electronic sector TTM PE is only 31.01 times, which is close to the bottom position in early 19. From the perspective of prosperity, mobile phones have fallen to the bottom, and it is expected to be delayed to Q2 recovery due to the impact of the epidemic; Because of the damage caused by the epidemic, the resumption of work and production has brought the trend of recovery. We are optimistic about automotive electronics + domestic alternatives, which also produced brilliant answers in the first quarter.
Risk warning: demand fluctuation caused by peripheral environment; The risk of the epidemic lasting longer than expected.
