Introduction to this report:
Although the market has certain expectations for the effect of the current policy, we believe that the absence of shadow banking channels matching high risks will still cause pressure on the industry to shrink and credit expansion is still structural.
Summary:
The total amount data in March is lower than that in the previous two months, with an average range of 5-10 percentage points, which is similar to the downward speed of micro data. On the whole, it is still better than that of micro data. Real estate investment fell to – 2.4%, while the sales amount / area fell to – 26% / – 18% respectively, 7 / 8 percentage points slower than that of the previous month. The change degree of growth rate is similar to the micro data disclosed by real estate enterprises, but the absolute decline is still significantly better than that of large and medium-sized real estate enterprises.
The data of new construction area is better than expected, and since September 2021, the industry has been in the state of de stocking, which is slightly different from the current downward trend of de stocking rate. In 2021, according to the total amount of new construction area and sales area, the net decommissioned inventory was 100 million square meters, which was further accelerated in 2022. The net decommissioned inventory in the first quarter was 56.84 million square meters, which is still quite different from the current downward trend of decommissioning rate.
Although we believe that the continued downturn of the new opening trade union is mainly due to the combination of pre-sale capital supervision and low DE capitalization rate, which will reduce the driving force of real estate enterprises to promote new offers, the net de capitalization inventory still belongs to the performance exceeding expectations at the absolute data level.
Unlike previous cycles, this cycle will give priority to easing shadow banking when easing real estate. At present, shadow banking is still absent. Therefore, when the current financing channels to meet high-risk do not exist, credit expansion is still structural, and the second tier central state-owned enterprises are still obviously dominant.
This round of easing cycle does not systematically ease the industry through shadow banking, so as to achieve the comprehensive easing transmission path of shadow banking – medium and high-risk real estate enterprises and traditional financial institutions – low-risk real estate enterprises. At the same time, local urban investment and asset management companies are added to take over the project company and the parent company respectively, leaving only the chain of traditional financial institutions and low-risk real estate enterprises. We believe that due to the absence of shadow banking, the current credit expansion will show obvious structure, which will be more dominant for the second tier central state-owned enterprises and benefit Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) , Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) .
Structural credit easing will also lead to the revaluation of physical assets with stable cash flow. The transmission path is that in the absence of shadow banking, traditional financial institutions with low risk preference will enter the period of asset shortage, and the discount rate of different assets will begin to be stratified. Economic downturn coexists with pressure and risk, and high-risk assets are the first to be impacted. It is difficult to rely on traditional financial institutions with low risk preference to provide credit. Therefore, under the risk stratification, the discount rate of different assets will also be stratified, and the physical assets with stable cash flow will also be revalued. It is recommended that Financial Street Holdings Co.Ltd(000402) , benefit China-Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park Development Group Co.Ltd(601512) , etc.
Risk tip: the government re liberalizes the pre financing and land finance model.
