Recently, the steady growth policy has continued to increase. Insiders believe that the profit space of commercial banks is expected to be further released to provide more funds for the development of the real economy Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) recently took the lead in disclosing the first quarterly report of 2022, and its performance exceeded market expectations. Analysts pointed out that this has the significance of "wind vane" in the industry, and suggested that investors should pay attention to the first quarterly report of listed banks.
policy "combination fist"
The people's Bank of China announced on April 15 that it would cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25. For urban commercial banks without inter provincial operation and rural commercial banks with deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, the deposit reserve ratio will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points on the basis of reducing the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points.
This will not only provide more funds for the real economy, but also help to improve the profit level of commercial banks. According to the calculation of Anxin securities, the RRR reduction will boost the net interest margin of commercial banks by 0.46bp in 2022 and the net profit growth of commercial banks by 0.39pc in 2022 For listed banks, it will boost the net interest margin by 0.58bp and boost the profit growth before provision by 0.23pc in 2022.
The capital cost pressure of commercial banks is also expected to be reduced. Recently, the market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism held a meeting to encourage the floating ceiling of deposit interest rates of small and medium-sized banks to be lowered by about 10bp. Insiders believe that the debt cost of small and medium-sized banks with high debt cost and high proportion of medium and long-term limited deposits is expected to decline.
"The steady growth policy is expected to continue to increase in the future. Under the background of guiding the interest rate on the liability side of banks to decline first, it is not ruled out that there may be a small interest rate reduction in the future; it is expected to underpin the economy by issuing special treasury bonds in the future." Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) means.
strong performance growth
While the steady growth policy continues to work, the operating performance of commercial banks shows strong resilience.
According to the data, as of April 17, 35 of the 42 A-share listed banks had disclosed the annual report or performance express of 2021, of which 12 banks had a year-on-year growth rate of more than 10% in operating revenue and net profit in 2021 Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) the growth rate of these two indicators exceeded 20%.
In the first quarter of 2022, the business performance of commercial banks was brilliant. On April 15, Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) took the lead in disclosing the first quarterly report of 2022, which showed that the bank achieved an operating revenue of 12.277 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.39%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.015 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.33%.
"As the first listed bank to disclose the first quarterly report of 2022, Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) 's operating performance has a certain directional significance to the industry. It is expected that the overall net profit growth of the banking industry in the first quarter will continue to perform well." Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) research report points out.
The market is also "voting" for bank stocks with real gold and silver. The reporter noted that in the past 20 trading days, the bank index (CITIC) has risen by 9.62%, ranking third among the 30 primary industries, second only to the real estate sector and the coal sector.
it is recommended to configure the bank section
Looking forward to the future, the institution believes that "steady growth" is still the main line of the current market, and the allocation of bank stocks is a very cost-effective choice.
Many institutions agreed that with the secondary development of steady growth policies and the orderly optimization of policies in the real estate industry, the subsequent macroeconomic and micro quality expectations are expected to continue to improve. In the long run, the valuation bottom of the banking sector is clear; In the short term, the banking sector has high cost performance.
Anxin Securities believes that at present, investors can focus on the quarterly performance of listed banks and select regional banks with fast credit supply and some large state-owned banks with growth Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is suggested that investors take into account the systematic opportunities for the improvement of Industry Valuation and the individual opportunities for the upgrading of business models. The recommended targets are mostly joint-stock banks and urban commercial banks.
Guosheng securities put forward four main lines of stock selection: first, banks with stable and high growth performance; Second, high-quality small and medium-sized banks that benefit from the "steady growth" of infrastructure and have a strong willingness to convert convertible bonds into shares; Third, banks that underestimate the value and improve the marginal performance; Fourth, high-quality retail banks that benefit from the relaxation of expectations of real estate policies and are expected to usher in valuation repair.
China Merchants Fund pointed out that with the decline of market risk appetite, the key to stock selection is to focus on sectors with high profit certainty and relatively reasonable valuation, value stocks are better than growth stocks, and dividend strategies with high dividend and undervalued value are dominant. Insiders believe that the banking sector is expected to become one of the important investment lines.
