Since April, the stock market has remained depressed, but some funds have bucked the trend and hit an all-time high.
According to the statistics of wind, the net value of 31 equity funds and hybrid funds hit a record high last week (Note: excluding the funds newly established in 2022), including not only active equity funds, but also fixed income + funds, QDII (qualified domestic institutional investors) funds, etc.
Although there are various types of these funds, from the perspective of positions, most of them follow two main lines: first, real estate stocks under the logic of steady growth; Second, energy and resources stocks under the logic of inflation and tight supply and demand. This is also one of the two major directions of rising this year. Among them, the CSI sub real estate industry theme index rose by 7.76% and the CSI 800 energy index rose by 20.56% during the year.
innovation high Fund
multi warehouse real estate and energy
On April 14, the three funds managed by Huanghai, namely, Wanjia macro timing Multi Strategy, Wanjia Xinli and Wanjia selection, reached a new high in net value since its establishment. Among them, Wanjia macro timing multi strategy has a yield of more than 40% during the year, which is the active equity fund with the highest return this year.
Huang Hai is a fund manager who sticks to the real estate sector. From the perspective of regular position reports, the position has been dominated by real estate in recent years, and the position of coal stocks has been increased since the second half of last year. By the end of 2021, the top five heavyweight stocks of Wanjia macro timing and multi strategy were Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) . In addition, the fund also held many coal stocks such as Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) .
In his annual report, he said that the overall pattern of the A-share market in 2022 may be weakening, and the extent of adjustment depends on the strength and speed of stimulating the economy, because the downward force of the economy is strong, both cyclical and structural. In terms of periodicity, from the peak in the second quarter of last year, the downward cycle will run through the whole year at least; The structural reason is that the population growth rate has declined rapidly, and the long-term demand is facing contraction. Superimposed with epidemic prevention and control and various kinds of regulation, conventional economic stimulus measures may not be enough to reverse the downward trend.
Huang Hai believes that companies with undervalued and stable dividends will be scarce assets in the period of economic downturn. On the whole, investment is cautious and defensive, and continue to be firmly optimistic about energy (coal) and real estate benefiting from stable growth policies.
In addition to the three funds managed by the Yellow Sea, real estate stocks and energy stocks are included in the list of heavy positions of most funds with recent record highs.
For example, a number of funds managed by "fixed income +" star fund manager Zhang Yifei recently hit a new high in net worth, including steady growth of Anxin people, balanced profit increase of Anxin people, return of Anxin people, etc. Take the steady growth of Anxin people as an example. Among the top ten heavyweight stocks in its annual report, there are 4 real estate stocks and 3 energy stocks.
Yuan Wei, also a subsidiary of Anxin, also has a number of funds with a new high net worth recently. Among them, Anxin new normal Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen selected Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China overseas development, Xuhui holding group and other real estate stocks in a shares.
multiple energy resources QDII funds
also hit a new high
At the same time, the tight supply of global energy has also affected the performance of QDII funds. Many QDII funds with heavy positions in oil and minerals have hit a new high recently.
For example, on April 13, GF Dow Jones US oil RMB a hit a new high in net worth. This is an index fund that tracks the Dow Jones US oil development and production index. More than 70% of the weighted components are distributed in the upstream exploration and production industry, making it more sensitive to oil prices; In addition, the index is compiled by weighting the market value of free circulation. The equity proportion of the top ten components reaches 70%, and the leading effect is more obvious.
In addition, Hua'an S & P's global oil and BOC S & P's global natural resources all hit a new high in net value on April 14. Unlike the other two oil funds, BOC S & P's global natural resources positions are concentrated in mining stocks, with heavy positions in Fortescue Metals Group, Vale, Rio Tinto, etc.
In the context of high inflation, these mining stocks have gained well this year. For example, the share price of Vale rose more than 40% this year. Deutsche Bank predicts that five large mining companies (BHP Billiton, Anglo American resources, Glencore, vale and Rio Tinto) will announce dividends and cash dividends of up to $24 billion, and there may be more later this year.
how to go in the future
It can be said that heavy positions in real estate and energy resources stocks are the two trumps of this year's record high fund. Looking forward to the future, can the market in these two directions continue?
For the investment in real estate stocks, Wanjia Fund believes that it is now standing in a golden period of "turning the stone". It is necessary to accurately capture high-quality real estate enterprises through in-depth research on the fundamentals of real estate enterprises and make layout when the valuation is wrongly killed.
Wanjia Fund said that it will continue to be optimistic about the allocation opportunities of the real estate sector and will focus on the following main lines in the future: first, the leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security; Second, regional central enterprises, state-owned enterprises or regional leading private enterprises with high financial report security and relatively stable cash flow; Third, actively layout "real estate +" business and real estate enterprises whose value needs to be revalued; Fourth, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income certainty and accelerated concentration, as well as the recent credit risk mitigation and elastic reversal of related real estate enterprises.
Looking forward to the trend of energy and resources stocks in 2022, Chen Xuelin, manager of BOC S & P global natural resources fund, said in his annual report that as OPEC + revised its overly pessimistic forecast of supply and demand in 2022, energy stocks rebounded with oil prices, and major energy institutions also began to revise the data of crude oil depots, showing that the strength of the world economic recovery exceeded the previous forecast. As long as the covid-19 pneumonia epidemic can be controlled, The fundamentals of energy stocks will support this sector to reach a new high in 2022.
In addition, China's macroeconomic downturn makes the market expect the Central Bank of China to continue to increase easing. Chen Xuelin believes that this will be better than the demand for base metals, and the Russian Ukrainian war will also make the market of some metals easy to rise and difficult to fall. The biggest pressure on precious metals in 2022 is the threat of interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Although it is predicted that the threat of inflation will gradually reduce, under the doubts of the market, precious metals should still fluctuate in the range. In addition to the demand for risk aversion, with the clarity of the number of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, it can be seen that the precious metals sector is going out of a new direction.
