Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the inflection point of the epidemic is approaching, and the repair market is imminent
The inflection point of Shanghai epidemic is approaching, and it is expected that the social aspect will be cleared gradually; This round of epidemic has seriously dragged down the economy, and it is difficult for growth to return to the target level in the first half of the year. It is expected that policies related to expanding investment in the second quarter will be strengthened and accelerated, and supply chain dredging and consumption stimulation will be carried out at the same time; Due to the epidemic, the medium-term repair market has been delayed, but the stable growth market will be more clear and lasting.
First of all, under the trend of the sharp decline of the propagation coefficient and the sharp rise of the shelter capacity, it is expected that Shanghai will basically achieve the goal of social clearance around April 20. Secondly, the economic situation in the first quarter of this year is expected to be weaker than that in the third quarter of 2021. At the same time, under the influence of the epidemic, the economy is expected to continue to be under pressure in the second quarter, and the negative impact is not weaker than that in the first quarter. Finally, the policy of stabilizing the real estate and service industry is expected to speed up. At present, all departments focus on dredging the supply chain and industrial production in the Yangtze River Delta. After the epidemic is controlled, it is expected that the policy will comprehensively increase and stimulate consumption according to the damage.
At present, monetary easing such as reducing reserve requirements and interest rates is difficult to directly alleviate the concerns of investors. The market is still waiting for the inflection point of the epidemic and the resumption of work and production. The medium-term repair market may be delayed, but the pessimistic expectation has been fully released and the market is imminent. It is suggested to strengthen the main line of steady growth and lay out varieties with low valuation and expected low.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the index level shows that the market adjustment has been significant
① historical data show that the order of market bottoming: High Dividend Stocks broad-based index heavy fund stocks. 21 / 8 of the high dividend stocks have bottomed this time, and the heavy fund stocks are making up for the decline recently. ② Compared with history, the time and space of this round of CSI 300 decline is obvious. The valuation is close to the beginning of 19 years, and the valuation of gem index is lower than the end of March 20 years. ③ This year’s style is similar to that of 12 years. The annual value is slightly dominant, and the growth is expected to be dominant in stages. At present, it continues to focus on the main line of steady growth, such as finance, real estate and new infrastructure, which is more flexible.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: waiting for U-shaped bottom construction, there are still challenges in the short term
How to treat this RRR reduction? Interpretation 1: This is the RRR reduction with abundant liquidity, with signal significance. Interpretation 2: price tools are not the first choice, and recent policies will continue to focus on structure. Interpretation 3: the market has previously included higher easing expectations and is facing challenges and pressure in the short term. Interpretation 4: it is not appropriate to take this small reduction in the standard reserve ratio as a “starting gun” for a new round of market, and the recovery of the epidemic will be the key. Before the epidemic situation improves, it will also have an important impact on the current epidemic situation and policy. The RRR reduction, regardless of the magnitude, may not become the “starting gun” of the new round of market, and the probability of market bottom grinding period will continue.
We believe that the market is in the medium-term U-shaped bottom construction period, and still faces some challenges and pressures in the short term. The tone and configuration focus on wait-and-see and defense, and specific industries focus on: banking, agriculture, public utilities, real estate chain, CXO, military industry, etc.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: continue to change positions, and the value market is far from over
The “small step” RRR reduction shows the limitations of monetary easing. The index fluctuated from 3100 to 3400, and the revaluation of physical assets and companies with stable cash flow has not ended.
RRR reduction can not effectively promote the decline of risk-free interest rate in the stock market. On Friday, the central bank announced that it would cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points and release about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds. However, for stock investors, the news of the RRR reduction is difficult to boost market confidence. If it is effective, the index should rise like a rainbow after the national standing committee meeting on April 16. On the contrary, the “small step” RRR reduction just shows that the space for monetary policy relaxation is constrained by the overseas monetary tightening cycle and the upside down of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, which has not been seen in a decade. Secondly, to some extent, this also indicates the weakening of the marginal effect of broad money, the continuous reduction of reverse repurchase and interbank certificate of deposit interest rates, and the macro liquidity has been in an extremely loose situation. The reduction of reserve requirement and interest rate does not mean that the risk-free interest rate of the stock market will decline. The key lies in the willingness of investors to hold money. The absence of credit policy, the pressure of inflation and the impact of the epidemic have increased the willingness of residents and business departments to hold money.
Continue to change positions: the style sector rotates within the value, rather than growth / value switching. In the exchange, there are still many investors looking forward to the switch between value and growth again. Even if there is, we believe that the opportunity of growth rebound is fleeting, and we suggest investors to actively change positions in the rebound. The A-share storm in June 2015, the semiconductor flameout in July 2020, the collapse of the share price of core assets in March 2021 and the sharp decline of the growth sector in early 2022 all indicate that the share price collapse caused by the deterioration of the micro trading structure needs a very long repair. In the macro combination of declining economic expectations and high fluctuations in discount rate expectations, the positional warfare of growth / value is no longer applicable. Undervaluation, performance and performance determination are the current optimal solution. The value market is far from over, but the internal value will rotate. Investment opportunities are in stocks with low-risk characteristics: stocks with undervalued value, performance and definite performance. It should be pointed out that the undervalued sector is not equal to the sector with low-risk characteristics. It is very easy to fall into the valuation trap to select stocks only with undervalued value. Economic and policy uncertainty, declining profit expectations and risk appetite. Before the credit path is clear, investing in stocks is like “driving in fog”, and performance certainty is equally important. Industry recommendations: 1) hold physical assets and have stable cash flow. High dividends are only one of them: coal, chemical resources, second tier central state-owned real estate, banks ( Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) / Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) / Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) ); 2) Public investment direction dominated by government expenditure: construction, power grid, wind power ( Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) / Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) ); 3) the dilemma reversal: pig, Baijiu and consumer service ( Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ), focusing on Q2 consumer building materials and steel bottom elasticity ( Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) ).
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : RRR reduction is “supply” but not “antidote”, and China US interest rate spread and social financial structure are timing signals
The current round of RRR reduction is weaker than expected, focusing on two policy considerations: 1) the current macro liquidity is not scarce → capital cost and financing environment may not constitute constraints on a shares, 2) the policy ranking improvement taking into account internal and external balance → the further easing space under the dislocation of China US profit cycle should not be overestimated. The key variable from rebound to reversal is the visibility of the inflection point of all a non-financial performance, which is described by three major interest rate spread “languages”, that is, the interest rate spread between China and the United States is the main contradiction, rather than the term spread and credit spread; Described in the “language” of social finance, that is, the inflection point of social finance structure is the main contradiction. The m1-m2 inflection point may have initially appeared in March, waiting for the recovery of medium and long-term loans.
In terms of configuration, value continues to dominate. The industry comparison idea is that those with good prosperity and not fully traded + those who are less impacted by the epidemic or benefit from the epidemic: banks / CXO / construction / Agriculture / food and beverage.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : continuous tangential value of growth
A shares still need to “think carefully and practice”, continue to grow tangential to value, allocate inflation benefit chain + steady growth. Before the obstruction of real estate supply and demand and the significant change of epidemic prevention policy, the bottom of A-share profit cannot form a consistent expectation. Therefore, value stocks may have been dominated by shocks, while growth stocks will still be trapped in the upward trend of US bond real interest rate and the change of supply and demand pattern.
Therefore, A-Shares still need “careful thinking and practice”, and the value style will continue to dominate. Industry configuration: 1 “Supply and demand gap” resources / materials benefiting from inflation (coal / copper / potash); 2. “Old style” steady growth, bearing the role of economic “stabilizer” (real estate / consumer building materials / household appliances); 3. Consumption “steady growth” and post epidemic repair expectation (Leisure Services / hotels).
Anxin Securities: the policy is expected to be overweight. It is recommended to configure stable growth global inflation, high prosperity post epidemic repair
In terms of the central bank’s behavior of “reducing the reserve requirement without reducing interest rate” on the 15th, this reduction is in line with market expectations at the time point, but the range of this reduction is very restrained; As for the interest rate cut, after the national Standing Committee emphasized the “timely reduction of reserve requirements”, the market’s expectation of “simultaneous interest rate cut” began to decrease. We believe that the range of this “RRR reduction” plays a limited role in repairing economic expectations and easing the tension of A-share capital. But more importantly, this round of “RRR reduction” is still a clear and positive signal of the steady growth policy, and the follow-up “new plan” is more worthy of expectation.
From the current transaction logic, we still believe that: first, stable growth can not afford, high prosperity is difficult to flourish; Second, steady growth and a turnaround in high prosperity. At present, it is in the process of “realizing steady growth and turning the corner of high prosperity” (in the process of realizing steady growth, there will probably be a wave of excess market in real estate or consumer stocks, and then it will gradually transition to the direction of high prosperity), Our proposed configuration is steady growth (real estate chain, infrastructure, banking, food and beverage) global inflation (coal, agriculture and animal husbandry, petrochemical), high prosperity (digital intelligence, photovoltaic, military industry, semiconductor, wind power, new energy vehicles) post epidemic repair (Hotel, aviation, catering, tourism, etc.).
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : the effect of steady growth in the first quarter will be “announced”, and the allocation will still give priority to balance
In the second week of April, the Chinese epidemic and the overseas fed accelerated the tightening of risks to suppress the market. The central bank comprehensively lowered the reserve requirement by 25bp on April 15. The monetary policy is relatively restrained and the probability of further overweight in the short term is small. The “steady growth” policy is expected to still focus on infrastructure, real estate and promotion fees. The effect still needs to be verified by macro data, and pay close attention to the macro data released on April 18.
It is recommended to continue balanced allocation to cope with fluctuations. In terms of allocation, the chain of steady growth has the strongest certainty, and it is recommended to continue to participate; Under the policy of promoting consumption, the certainty of consumption recovery has improved; The liquidity is reasonable and abundant, and can still participate in the third stage of growth in the medium and long term.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : at present, A-Shares are still in the bottom stage and continue to be optimistic about infrastructure, real estate and other fields related to steady growth
At present, A-Shares are still in the bottom stage. On the one hand, a series of positive changes have taken place in China’s policies, including the first reduction of reserve requirements in the year, the further relaxation of local real estate policies, and the gradual mitigation of the impact of China’s supply chain. On the other hand, the 50bp interest rate increase and table contraction of the Federal Reserve are also expected to land in early May. However, the final confirmation of the market bottom signal needs to see the stabilization of the macroeconomic bottom and the significant mitigation of overseas negative disturbances.
Some sectors of the real estate industry continue to benefit from the measures to relax the marginal growth of the epidemic prevention and control, as well as the participation in the post epidemic prevention and control of the real estate industry. The steady growth sector is the direction with the least resistance at present, focusing on real estate and infrastructure with strong expectation of policy marginal relaxation and banks benefiting from the expectation of stabilizing the real estate chain. The post cycle sector focuses on coal, petroleum and petrochemical, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery with strong price rise expectations. The consumer sector focuses on food and beverage, tourism and retail industries that have fully adjusted and benefited from the marginal relaxation of epidemic prevention and control measures.
YueKai Securities: the central bank lowered the reserve requirement moderately and the market shock was repaired
Although the central bank’s overall RRR reduction is less than expected, it still plays a certain role in reducing social comprehensive financing costs and improving market risk appetite. In addition, the upcoming April Politburo meeting is the highest level meeting to deploy the focus of follow-up economic work, with high market attention. The probability of this Politburo meeting will continue the main tone of last year’s central economic work conference and Politburo meeting, with the word “stability” at the head to support the economic operation in a reasonable range.
Looking forward to the future, we believe that under the influence of the policy underpinning and the approaching heavyweight meeting, the A-share probability continues the shock repair trend, and the market is dominated by structural market. It is suggested to focus on three main lines. First, focus on the main line of steady growth. Internal and external disturbances have increased the downward pressure on the economy. As the main policy line, steady growth will remain the main market in the long run. It is suggested to pay attention to the new and old infrastructure that directly benefit from counter cyclical adjustment and the targets with outstanding performance and low valuation in the real estate sector. Second, focus on the main line of large consumption. In terms of policies, the NSC will deploy policies and measures to promote consumption and comprehensively implement policies to release consumption potential; In terms of capital, the recent recovery in the issuance of public funds with consumption theme is expected to bring incremental capital into the market; At the company level, after the cost side pressure of leading companies is gradually relieved, it is expected to enjoy the dividend of profit elasticity repair in the medium and long term. Third, pay attention to the large financial sector with favorable RRR reduction policies. The RRR reduction helps to optimize the capital structure of financial institutions. For the banking sector, the RRR reduction helps to slow down the cost of bank liabilities, support the performance, and pay attention to the undervalued core stocks with high asset quality. For the securities sector, the loose liquidity environment helps to boost the market risk appetite, and the low-level securities sector is expected to usher in the valuation repair market.
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