This month, the severe epidemic prevention situation in the north and south of the Yangtze River has had a certain impact on the manufacturing industry, especially the automobile industry chain. Many vehicle manufacturers and parts suppliers shut down or reduced production, which has a great impact on the supply chain. Last week, Yu Chengdong of Huawei’s consumer business and he Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng automobile, both tweeted on social platforms to pay attention to the follow-up impact of the epidemic on the manufacturing industry chain.
For the resumption of work and production, the Ministry of industry and information technology officially launched the “smooth supply chain coordination platform of automobile industry chain” on April 11. On April 15, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other three departments conveyed the spirit of the special meeting of the State Council on ensuring smooth logistics and the stability of industrial chain supply chain, studied the establishment of an emergency coordination mechanism for the demands of industrial chain supply chain, established a “white list” of key enterprises transferred to operation guarantee, and promoted the resumption of work and production of 666 key enterprises in Shanghai.
Since mid March, due to the market’s concern about the production and marketing disturbance of the epidemic, the share prices of some auto parts companies have fallen by more than 20%, and the PE valuation of auto parts and complete vehicles has declined. Last week, the A-share auto sector, auto parts sector and auto service sector continued to adjust downward. Last weekend, the news of the orderly resumption of work of the main car factories has come one after another. The agency believes that, basically, the large-scale shutdown of the automobile industry chain caused by this round of epidemic is gradually showing a marginal improvement trend. Although it is difficult to determine the specific time node for a complete return to normal in the short term, the current market sentiment of the automobile sector may have bottomed out, and the recovery trend needs to be observed.
In Jilin Province, China’s FAW has fully started its resumption of work on April 11. On April 15, the Red Flag brand successfully went offline 160 units in a single day. According to the latest news on April 17, all five main engine plants of FAW Group in Changchun have resumed work.
In addition, Li Xuefeng, Deputy Secretary General of Changchun Municipal People’s government, introduced at the press conference on epidemic prevention and control that on the premise of ensuring the safety of the epidemic, priority will be given to promoting the resumption of the first batch of 128 key projects by the end of April.
In Shanghai, on April 16, the Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission issued the guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation of industrial enterprises returning to work and production in Shanghai (the first edition), which made it clear that all district governments, streets, towns and parks should actively support enterprises returning to work and production and guide enterprises to “one enterprise and one policy”. The latest news from Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) said that Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) will start the pressure test of resumption of work and production on April 18, specifically involving its complete vehicle, parts and logistics enterprises such as SAIC passenger cars, SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC GM, Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Anji logistics, etc.
Based on the market sentiment and the oversold status of the industrial chain sector, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) auto team believes that is expected to resume work gradually, and the bottom position of the sector is clear .
Previously, the market expected that the impact of the epidemic on supply and demand would reach two months, while the automobile industries in Jilin and Shanghai began to gradually resume production in April, exceeding market expectations although the extent of the impact of the epidemic on the demand side is not clear, so the improvement still needs to see a clearer turning point of the epidemic, the automobile industry chain represented by Shanghai has moved from uncertainty to certainty under the expectation of resumption of work the specific progress of resumption is not the key, the key is that the market expectation begins to change, so that the market can re form the performance expectation for the second quarter. Considering that raw materials are still at a high level, on the whole, the recovery of fundamentals is a process of shock recovery
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) automotive team also said that marginal improvement means that the bottom position of the sector is clear, and good participation opportunities are for high-quality targets. Under low risk preference, the most important thing in the short term is still the certainty of performance, the medium-term dimension is still the most deterministic direction, and there will be better opportunities after adjustment. Three investment mainlines of “intelligence + high-profile new energy + independent brand” are recommended .
Figure: the number of new energy vehicle logos with the highest year-on-year growth in the first quarter
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) point of view said that intelligent driving software company’s valuation fluctuated due to the expected impact, but the actual business impact is small, and the stock price is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the reversal of market expectations . The vehicle OS leader Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , the intelligent cockpit leader Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , and the high-precision map leader Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) are also the beneficiaries
The epidemic has impacted the automobile industry chain: shutdown, production reduction and sales “live on inventory”! Has the transfer come from the Ministry of industry and information technology?
