Last week, the Shanghai stock index and the gem fell 1.25% and 4.26% respectively. In terms of industry, the main line of the market focuses on coal, logistics, hotel catering, food and beverage and other industries, which is one of the few sectors that rose last week. After Friday’s trading, the news of a comprehensive RRR reduction fell to the ground. The central bank decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022, releasing a total of about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds. What is the impact of this RRR reduction on the future market of a shares? Let’s look at the latest summary of the strategies of the top ten securities companies.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the inflection point of the epidemic is approaching, and the repair market is imminent
The inflection point of Shanghai epidemic is approaching, and it is expected that the social aspect will be cleared gradually; This round of epidemic has seriously dragged down the economy, and it is difficult for growth to return to the target level in the first half of the year. It is expected that policies related to expanding investment in the second quarter will be strengthened and accelerated, and supply chain dredging and consumption stimulation will be carried out at the same time; Due to the epidemic, the medium-term repair market has been delayed, but the stable growth market will be more clear and lasting. First of all, with the trend of a sharp decline in the propagation coefficient and a sharp increase in the capacity of the shelter, it is expected that Shanghai will basically achieve the goal of social clearance around April 20. Secondly, the economic situation in the first quarter of this year is expected to be weaker than that in the third quarter of 2021. At the same time, under the influence of the epidemic, the economy is expected to continue to be under pressure in the second quarter, and the negative impact is not weaker than that in the first quarter. Finally, the policy of stabilizing the real estate and service industry is expected to speed up. At present, all departments focus on dredging the supply chain and industrial production in the Yangtze River Delta. After the epidemic is controlled, it is expected that the policy will comprehensively increase and stimulate consumption according to the damage. At present, monetary easing such as reducing reserve requirements and interest rates is difficult to directly alleviate the concerns of investors. The market is still waiting for the inflection point of the epidemic and the resumption of work and production. The medium-term repair market may be delayed, but the pessimistic expectation has been fully released and the market is imminent. It is suggested to strengthen the main line of steady growth and lay out varieties with low valuation and expected low.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : the effect of steady growth in the first quarter will be “announced”, and the allocation will still give priority to balance
In the second week of April, the Chinese epidemic and the overseas fed accelerated the tightening of risks to suppress the market. The central bank comprehensively lowered the reserve requirement by 25bp on April 15. The monetary policy is relatively restrained and the probability of further overweight in the short term is small. The “steady growth” policy is expected to still focus on infrastructure, real estate and promotion fees. The effect still needs to be verified by macro data, and pay close attention to the macro data released on April 18. Therefore, it is recommended to continue balanced allocation to cope with fluctuations. In terms of allocation, the chain of steady growth has the strongest certainty, and it is recommended to continue to participate; Under the policy of promoting consumption, the certainty of consumption recovery has improved; The liquidity is reasonable and abundant, and can still participate in the third stage of growth in the medium and long term.
The specific industry configuration continues to focus on three main lines and two themes.
main line 1: continue to grasp the stable growth chain with the strongest certainty, and pay specific attention to the whole chain of building materials, building decoration, steel, cement, real estate (such as glass, real estate service / development, home, automobile, etc.) and relevant opportunities such as banks;
main line 2: under the expectation of the introduction of consumption promotion policies, the certainty of consumption recovery has increased. We pay attention to the valuation and repair of food and beverage, medicine and biology, and grasp the opportunities related to the rise in the price of mandatory consumer goods (planting industry, chemical fertilizer, dairy products, condiments) and the recovery of service industry chain.
main line III: optimistic about the medium and long-term configuration value of growth style, it is recommended to adjust and increase positions every time. Specifically focus on dual carbon, solar energy storage and semiconductors. In terms of theme, it is suggested to allocate around the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : RRR reduction can not effectively promote the decline of risk-free interest rate in the stock market
On Friday, the central bank announced that it would cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points and release about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds. However, for stock investors, the news of the RRR reduction is difficult to boost market confidence. If it is effective, the index should rise like a rainbow after the national standing committee meeting on April 16. On the contrary, the “small step” RRR reduction just shows that the space for monetary policy relaxation is constrained by the overseas monetary tightening cycle and the upside down of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, which has not been seen in a decade. Secondly, to some extent, this also indicates the weakening of the marginal effect of broad money, the continuous reduction of reverse repurchase and interbank certificate of deposit interest rates, and the macro liquidity has been in an extremely loose situation. The reduction of reserve requirement and interest rate does not mean that the risk-free interest rate of the stock market will decline. The key lies in the willingness of investors to hold money. The absence of credit policy, the pressure of inflation and the impact of the epidemic have increased the willingness of residents and business departments to hold money.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : the profit center continued to explore in the first quarter, with the growth rate of resource products and medicine leading
As of April 15, about 10% of A-share companies have disclosed the performance forecast / Express / report of the first quarter of 2022, most of which exist in the form of performance forecast. The disclosure ratio of main board / gem / Sci-tech Innovation Board / Beizheng performance forecast / Express / report is 10.3% / 9.8% / 7.0% / 2.4% respectively. From the perspective of the type of performance forecast, the forecast positive rate of listed companies that have disclosed the annual report forecast is 74.5%, which is higher than that in the fourth quarter (the type of performance forecast includes four types: continuous profit, slight increase, advance increase and loss reversal).
Segments with improved performance and upward boom:
\u3000\u30001. Upstream resource products and mining (coal mining and washing, industrial metals, precious metals, rare metals, plastics and products, agrochemical industry).
\u3000\u30002. Infrastructure industry chain (building construction, building decoration II).
\u3000\u30003. Power equipment, new energy and military industry (battery equipment, new energy power system, aerospace, ordnance II, other military industry II).
\u3000\u30004. Medical care: Medicine (chemical medicine, other medicine).
\u3000\u30005. Some fields of TMT: Electronics (components, consumer electronics), communication (communication equipment manufacturing). In addition to the above segments, regional banks (benefiting from loose liquidity margin and improved growth rate of Social Finance), special materials (booming supply and demand), instruments and meters (high-tech manufacturing industry), small household appliances (driven by “home economy”), computer equipment (100 billion investment scale brought by “counting East and west”) and other sectors have performed well in terms of profitability and prosperity.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : the landing of RRR reduction is expected to boost short-term market sentiment
The landing of the RRR reduction is expected to boost short-term market sentiment. The market has a high probability of rise one week after the landing of the previous RRR reduction, and the growth enterprise market index and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 have a 60% probability of rise; From the median range of rise and fall, the gem index performed better than the CSI 300 one week after the RRR was implemented, and the growth and consumption style were better than the cycle and finance.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : short-term A shares may continue to fluctuate and adjust, and undervalued and high dividend sectors are relatively dominant
In the short term, the RRR reduction combined with the adjustment of deposit interest rate quotation has alleviated the pressure on the bank’s liability side, promoted the decline of capital cost, and benefited the bond market greatly.
While the epidemic has not been eliminated, the short-term A-shares may still continue the shock adjustment trend. The undervalued and high dividend sectors are relatively dominant, and the opportunity may come only when the epidemic improves.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : the equity market is still optimistic about the steady growth sector
For the impact on the market, the monetary policy continues the combination of “wide money + wide credit”, and it is estimated that the actual year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the first quarter may significantly exceed the market expectation by 5.4%. The equity market is still optimistic about the steady growth sectors, such as finance, real estate, construction, building materials, etc.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : after the pulse repair profit driven by “steady growth” in the fourth quarter, you can pay attention to the time point of medium and long-term configuration
In the short term, industries with both “winning rate” and “return rate” after previous sharp declines and rebounds, such as building materials, food, agriculture, coal and other sectors, can be considered for allocation. From the medium-term perspective, when the overseas interest rate hike in the third quarter was to shrink the table and change the rhythm of space, the US bond interest rate had a downward window, the policy pulse bottomed twice and the bottom was deeper. After the pulse repair profit driven by “steady growth” in the third and fourth quarters, you can pay attention to the time point of medium and long-term configuration and the opportunity of style switching.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : loose as promised, cautious and optimistic in the future
We believe that it is recommended to be cautious and optimistic after the RRR reduction. First of all, the statement made by the central bank in answering reporters’ questions on the evening of the 15th has changed marginally, indicating that the central bank has clearly noticed the potential inflation and the external risks that the Fed may bring about by raising interest rates, and the central bank is also assessing the marginal utility of the comprehensive RRR reduction. Secondly, since March, the bond market has been in a policy vacuum, and the exchange of long and short sentiment is mainly affected by two main contradictions. The market pays too much attention to the adjustment window on the 15th, hates the adjustment caused by potential poor expectations, and hopes that the monetary policy can point out the direction of the next stage. Third, in fact, the range of this RRR reduction will not become a decisive factor in the trend of the short-term bond market.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the index level shows that the market adjustment has been significant
the time and space of the current round of adjustment of CSI 300 has been relatively obvious, and the valuation is close to the level at the beginning of 19 looking back on the past five years, the CSI 300 has experienced four complete adjustment cycles. In addition to the adjustment under the background of the 2008 financial crisis, the previous decline lasted about 12 months, with a maximum decline of about 30% – 45%. The current round of CSI 300 decline has lasted for 13 months (21 / 02-22 / 03), with the largest decline of 34%. Compared with history, it is obvious in the time and space of this round of adjustment. In terms of valuation, according to the latest composition, the current (as of 22 / 04 / 15, the same below) CSI 300 PE (TTM, overall method, the same below) is 12.3 times, and the risk premium rate (1 / CSI 300 PE – ten-year Treasury bond interest rate, the same below) is 5.4%. At the low point in mid March this year, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300pe was 11.5 times (the risk premium rate was 5.8%), compared with 10.2 times (6.5%) at the beginning of 19 and 11.3 times (5.7%) in March 20. In mid March this year, it almost returned to the level at the end of the epidemic in March 20.
the time and space of this round of adjustment of SSE 50 has been obvious, and the valuation has reached a new low in 19 years looking back on the past five years, SSE 50 has experienced four complete adjustment cycles. In addition to the adjustment under the background of the 2008 financial crisis, the previous decline lasted about 12 months, with a maximum decline of about 30% – 45%. The current round of SSE 50 fell for 13 months (21 / 02-22 / 03), with the largest decline of 35%. Compared with history, this round of adjustment has been very obvious in time and space. In terms of valuation, according to the latest composition, the current SSE 50pe is 10.3 times, and the risk premium rate (1 / SSE 50pe – ten-year Treasury bond interest rate, the same below) is 7.0%. At the low point in mid March this year, SSE 50 PE was 9.5 times (the risk premium rate was 7.7%), compared with 9.9 times (6.8%) at the beginning of 19 and 10.4 times (6.9%) in March 20. The valuation in mid March this year hit a new low in 19 years.
gem means that the current valuation has been at a historically low level compared with other indexes, the gem has been established for a short time and fluctuates greatly, which has little reference significance for adjusting time and space. We mainly look at the adjustment of gem index from the perspective of valuation. At present, the valuation of GEM has been at a medium and low level. As of April 15, 22, the PE index of gem was 47.3 times, which was 29.1% from low to high in the past 13 years; The risk premium rate (1 / gem refers to the interest rate of PE ten-year Treasury bonds, the same below) is – 0.7%, a 7.0% quantile from high to low in the past 13 years. In March of 20 years, the PE index of gem was 50.2 times (the risk premium rate was – 0.6%). From the perspective of PE and risk premium rate, the current gem index is more attractive than that at the end of the epidemic in March 20
Institutional Interpretation
How does the central bank’s reserve requirement reduction release 530 billion yuan affect stock and bond buildings? Look at the trend of A-Shares after previous RRR reductions
Multi agency interpretation of RRR reduction: stabilizing market confidence and subsequent interest rate cuts are not ruled out to benefit the banking sector
In 2022, more than 20 funds came to the emergency interpretation of the first RRR reduction! Interest rates may also be cut after the RRR reduction, focusing on the “steady growth” sector
Interpretation of several fund companies in the timely rain of reducing the reserve requirement into the stock market: favorable interest rate sensitive industry securities / bank index Securities and insurance index Real Estate Index
