how will A-Shares perform after the RRR reduction
Viewpoint: after four consecutive months of recovery, the leading economic indicators fell below the boom and bust line, confirming the judgment of anti pumping we mentioned earlier. In this case, the pressure of economic growth still inhibits the market. Under the support of policy support and monetary easing cycle, the market as a whole is still a process of shock bottoming comprehensive RRR reduction policy was implemented, and the overall confidence of the market was boosted. The economic data in the first quarter improved, and the market fundamentals were supported. The policy underpinning is further strengthened, but the market bottom is still polished, and the bottom shock market will continue. Investors in the stage game play the price difference game of high selling and low absorption, while strategic investors can still make the midline allocation every low and low absorption
US stocks fell overnight, which still had an emotional impact on the opening of a shares. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened sharply, rebounded after the opening, and the gem took the lead in turning red. The Shenzhen composite index also ushered in the red market, but the Shanghai index still hovered in the green market. Under the differentiation of the index, subject stocks strengthened slightly, while blue chips ushered in a decline. On the disk, the electronic sector led the rise, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, communications, national defense and military industry leading the rise, while coal stocks led the decline, while real estate, banking and non bank finance fell.
The trend of the market on that day should be significantly beyond the expectation of many people, because the index may have high opening expectations for the benefits of RRR reduction. Even if the benefits are digested in advance, it is possible to open high and go low or rush high and fall back. However, today's sharp low opening and a downturn are indeed quite abnormal. This also fully shows that the enthusiasm of the current market has not been released, and the whole is still in a relatively low state. What's more unexpected is that there was a collective decline in financial stocks, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) even plunged by more than 8%. On the contrary, some theme stocks showed eye-catching performance, leading the gem and the science and innovation board to stop the decline.
The performance of these theme stocks may have a direct relationship with the orderly resumption of production and work in Shanghai. If it is of great significance, the RRR reduction is the first to bear the brunt. However, if the short-term opportunities boost, in fact, it is more direct to resume work and production. Because, including the automobile industry chain, the resumption of work and production means that the industry may get new operation, and it will not lead to possible shutdown or rupture of the supply chain due to the epidemic.
Therefore, perhaps in the short term, boosted by the overall confidence, with the orderly resumption of production and work in Shanghai, the short-term opportunities of subject stocks are gradually improving. Investors with strong game ability can play the game appropriately, but the sustainability remains to be seen. However, it is recommended to wait for the overall position. After all, the index is still divided, the current situation of domestic and foreign aggression is still suppressed, monetary easing has not been fully converted to credit easing, and the market still needs to digest and grind the bottom repeatedly before new trend opportunities can be generated.
Therefore, we are not pessimistic about the market, especially when the policy underpinning continues to increase, and we are full of confidence in the medium-term opportunities of the market, especially when the current valuation is at a historical low and the strategic allocation is at the right time. However, for the phased market, in terms of the trend after the RRR reduction, there is still the possibility of repeated or even bottoming again. Therefore, it is still relatively cautious in the short term, especially band investors. They are not recommended to intervene at will. They are more likely to wait for the index adjustment before making new preparations for low absorption.
