At the beginning of 2022, the popular track stocks collapsed and reappeared under the sharp position adjustment of institutions, and the undervalued sectors represented by infrastructure chain and real estate chain rose against the market.
The "seesaw" market of the high and low valuation sector is almost the same as that in early 2021, which is mainly caused by the two expectations of institutions for the high valuation track and the low valuation sector, that is, the performance of high stocks is "no matter how good or difficult to exceed expectations", and the performance of low stocks is "no matter how poor it is, it is difficult to be lower than expectations".
In the past few years, after the "infrastructure wind" had a short performance at the beginning of the year, the plate momentum was overshadowed by blue chip white horse or popular track stocks. Under the strong expectation of steady economic growth, what is the difference between this round of "infrastructure wind" and previous years?
"undervalued + steady growth" made infrastructure stocks rebound again
Under the background of the "stability" of the central economic work conference and the strengthening of counter cyclical and cross cyclical adjustment expectations, the A-share infrastructure sector has become active again.
According to the data of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) Research Report, in terms of infrastructure, in 2021, the public finance exceeded revenue and the issuance of special bonds was delayed. It is estimated that about 1.4 trillion capital effect will be carried forward to 2022. In addition, the financial department issued 1.46 trillion yuan of local special bonds in advance before the year, which is expected to drive the growth of infrastructure investment in the beginning of the year.
In the past two years, the A-share market has gone out of the extreme style, with blue chip white horse and popular track occupying one seat respectively. The overall performance of the infrastructure sector has been subject to shock adjustment, with occasional short-term rise of "passing in a flash".
Data show that the index of capital construction index (399995.SZ) has been 4.45% in recent three years, and it has lost substantially less than the 16.92% of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, far less than that of PV, lithium, Baijiu, chips and so on.
Further breakdown, the index return of the construction index (399235. SZ) in recent three years is only 1.81%; The performance of the building materials index was relatively bright, up to 30.11%, mainly because the constituent stocks and heavyweights of the index benefited from the performance growth driven by residents' decoration demand.
The periodic market of the infrastructure chain is mainly driven by the expectation of steady economic growth, especially the characteristics of high in the front and low in the back brought by the financial front. The Research Report of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) pointed out that the targets of economic growth, deficit ratio and fixed asset investment announced by the national two sessions in March will become the key to the expected fulfillment of the infrastructure chain. With the convening of the local two sessions, the market expectations are expected to gradually converge.
\u3000\u3000 "The market's expectation of enhanced policy steady growth and the valuation advantage of the relatively high sector are the main reasons for the rebound of the infrastructure sector again. In August and September 2021, the infrastructure sector experienced a wave of slight rise, and the rising logic is based on the expectation that the economy bottomed out and rebounded in the fourth quarter of that year. At the same time, during the short-term adjustment of the market, the overvalued sector made The allocation of undervalued stocks is cost-effective. " A Shanghai private equity fund manager told the first financial reporter.
Under the expectation of steady growth, the infrastructure index showed some performance as early as the third quarter of 2021. According to the data, from August to September 2021, the infrastructure index rose by 19%, breaking through the horizontal fluctuation range of about two years. After a slight adjustment, the index started rising again in December 2021, with a cumulative increase of 12.68% in less than one and a half months. As of the closing on January 10, 2022, the infrastructure engineering index reported 4549.44 points.
On the other hand, from the perspective of the stock price adjustment of leading stocks, there seems to be a stop falling phenomenon. Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) (600031. SH) walked out of the bull market from early 2019 to early 2021, with an increase of more than 5 times. On February 18, 2021, it hit a record high (49.7 yuan / share), but then gradually weakened. On November 19, it hit a new low (21.41 yuan / share) for more than a year, with a cumulative correction range of nearly 57%.
In the view of the above-mentioned fund managers, "when switching between high and low, the market is relatively bumpy and there is no obvious main line market. Infrastructure investment, finance and optional consumption are more sensitive to steady economic growth. After full adjustment in the past, individual stocks have gradually emerged the opportunity of reconfiguration." He said.
new infrastructure development space or key expectation of sector growth
At present, the role of traditional infrastructure in underpinning steady economic growth is limited. The new infrastructure conducive to economic transformation and upgrading and the development of strategic emerging industries may not only be the focus of policy in the later stage, but also the expectation of the market for the infrastructure sector. The development space of new infrastructure will also determine whether the infrastructure sector has the opportunity to become a bright spot in the first half of 2022 to a certain extent.
Compared with traditional infrastructure, such industries as power, heat, gas, transportation, environment, public facilities and information transmission; The new infrastructure emphasizes the direction of "intelligence", including not only the intelligent upgrading of traditional infrastructure such as smart grid and high-end CNC machine tools, but also 5g virtual, broadband upgrading, Artificial Intelligence Computing Center, blockchain infrastructure, quantum communication, quantum computing, industrial Internet platform, energy Internet, etc.
From the perspective of key policy directions, among the key directions supported by special bonds in 2022, the importance of energy, agriculture, forestry, water conservancy and major national strategic projects has significantly increased. Among them, the distribution network is still the key investment direction, and the proportion of investment in intelligent and digital power grid is expected to be further improved.
"There is huge investment space. Under the background of switching between old and new energy sources, the urgent construction of new energy infrastructure deserves special attention, such as hydropower, wind power, power transmission and transformation equipment, power electronics and automation, power grid, etc. from the perspective of short-term profit realization and valuation cost performance, the short-term profitability of sub sectors with large capital expenditure and R & D investment is not competitive." An energy industry analyst told reporters, "the distribution network and smart grid sectors are of great significance to China's energy development. The former is to make up for weaknesses and improve efficiency, while the latter needs to be promoted as a whole."
The analyst said that compared with traditional infrastructure, the innovation speed of new infrastructure is fast, the iteration cycle is short, and will stimulate new industrial demand. These characteristics determine that enterprises are the main body of new infrastructure investment.
"Although the new infrastructure projects of local governments vary greatly, the trend of continuous expansion of new infrastructure investment in the future is clear. At present, it is relatively reliable to increase the proportion of new infrastructure in the overall infrastructure investment to about 15% ~ 20%." The aforementioned analyst told reporters, "too high growth expectation is also unrealistic. Compared with traditional infrastructure, new infrastructure needs technological breakthrough as the basis. There should be not only the construction of new infrastructure such as algorithm computing platform, but also the implementation of practical application scenarios."
According to relevant research and report data, the "new infrastructure" will drive the growth rate of infrastructure by about 0.4 ~ 0.7 percentage points in 2022, accounting for 15% of infrastructure investment. Although the proportion is small, the growth space is clear.
What we should see is that since the beginning of the year, popular tracks such as photovoltaic, lithium battery and chip have disintegrated collectively, and the callback speed and range have overwhelmed many investors. On January 10, the new energy index, wind power index and photovoltaic index all fell by more than 1%. Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) all fell.
"Although some links of PV belong to new infrastructure, considering the digestion process of high valuation, we can appropriately avoid the PV sector and focus on the power distribution end and power transmission end. In addition, some state-owned enterprises in traditional fields have entered the new infrastructure field through transformation and upgrading, and some enterprises\' valuations have not reflected the new infrastructure, so there is an opportunity to usher in valuation remodeling in the future." The aforementioned analyst added.
(source: First Finance)
