"Establish an encouraging fertility fund as soon as possible, the central bank will print an additional $2 trillion, give birth to 50 million more children in 10 years, solve the problem of population aging and fewer children, make the future more dynamic, and do not increase the burden of Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , enterprises and local governments. we believe that this method is the most practical, effective and feasible ." Recently, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) chief economist Ren Zeping called for encouraging fertility funds, which aroused heated discussion among netizens.
Ren Zeping also said that we must seize the time window when we can have children in 75-85 years, and speed up the introduction of encouraging fertility funds. It will be too late if we don't introduce them again, don't expect the post-90s and post-00s . The group of people from 75 to 85 still have the concept of having more children and more happiness, while the post-90s and post-00s don't say having two or three children. Many people don't even want to get married.
On January 10, Ren Zeping published a long article "the solution to low fertility has been found - China Fertility report".
On the afternoon of October 10, Ren Zeping further responded to the hot issues involved in "printing money and giving birth to children".
Ren Zeping said that according to the survey, the main reason for low fertility is that the cost of giving birth to children is too high and the house price is too high, accounting for 41.5% and 27.2% respectively. Therefore, reducing the cost of childbearing and parenting is the main way out, and the support rate for establishing an encouraging fertility fund is as high as 66.5%.
Ren Zeping further stated that China is facing the challenge of aging and fewer children, "low fertility trap". Generally speaking, China's population situation is aging faster than other countries, and the number of children is lower than other countries. From 1962 to 1976, it was the source of baby boomers and demographic dividends. It is 46-60 years old this year. China's high growth in the past 40 years is mainly the superposition of demographic dividend, reform dividend and globalization dividend. Jumping out of the "low fertility trap", general mild policies will not help. We must introduce strong measures and enlarge measures.
In Ren Zeping's view, we must seize the time window when we can have children in 75-85 years, and speed up the introduction of encouraging fertility funds. It will be too late if we don't introduce them again. Don't expect the post-90s and post-00s. China's women of childbearing age are declining at a rate of 3-4 million a year.
Some people agree with Ren Zeping's remarks, but others think it is "sensationalism".
media comments:
less "Ren Zeping style" grandstanding
In this regard, surging commented that on the 10th, "online Red economist" Ren Zeping released a report that "it is suggested to establish an encouraging fertility fund as soon as possible, the central bank print an additional 2 trillion, and give birth to 50 million more children in 10 years", "we must seize the time window for the generation of 75-85 years", "don\'t expect the post-90s and post-00s"
There are so many "highlights" in this report that is not so much a decision-making suggestion as a hot search keyword set . After leaving Evergrande, it is unknown whether Ren Zeping's professional ability in the field of macroeconomic research has improved. However, as a typical "net red economist" at present, it has to be said that his ability to win the public's attention is becoming more and more sophisticated.
Back to his policy recommendations, even if the media did intercept the original report and conducted the so-called professional data demonstration, in fact, this demonstration model has nothing to do with the reality we are facing at present.
Taking the "over issuance of two trillion yuan by the central bank" proposed by him as an example, it sounds like a solution has been found once and for all, but the central bank's printing of money is not as simple as starting the printing machine, will have an unpredictable chain reaction to prices, monetary value and asset value . As a doctor of economics, Ren Zeping will not be unaware of this. It's only for the sake of public knowledge.
In addition, according to the Beijing News, since it is a "fertility encouragement fund", it is a special fund, and the special fund must be used for special purposes. As Ren Zeping said in the "solution to low fertility - China Fertility report", the main reason for low fertility is that the cost of giving birth to children is too high and the house price is too high. Can solve the problem of high birth cost through the "encouraging fertility fund"?
From the actual effect of the encouraging Fertility Policies in developed countries, simple subsidies have no significant effect on the improvement of fertility . South Korea, Japan, EU countries and the United States have corresponding encouraging fertility subsidy policies, especially the EU countries have perfect social welfare from birth to death, However, the fertility of these developed countries has not changed the problem of low fertility because of high welfare and birth subsidies. Obviously, simply calls for the adoption of fertility subsidy policies without other supporting facilities, which is difficult to solve the problem of low fertility.
And let the central bank print money without increasing the liabilities of all parties to subsidize childbirth is even more nonsense. Because even if the central bank printed and issued 2 trillion yuan to provide funds for the "encouraging fertility fund", this 2 trillion yuan is a special "helicopter money", which has a one-time impact on the fertility market.
If this money is distributed to groups with fertility and fertility will, it belongs to an additional sum of money. From a behavioral point of view, people tend to spend the money as soon as possible. In the current market supply and demand situation, a sudden entry of consumers regardless of cost will inevitably lead to a rise in the prices of goods and services in the fertility market, which will undoubtedly further raise people's fertility and parenting costs.
According to media reports, Ren Zeping worked as deputy director of the Research Office of the macro Department of the development research center of the State Council in his early years. In May 2014, he joined the Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) macro team, and became famous for shouting "5000 points are not a dream" . In June 2016, Ren Zeping resigned Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) and joined Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) . A year later, Ren Zeping joined Evergrande group as chief economist (vice president level) and President of Evergrande Economic Research Institute. At that time, it was widely said that his annual salary reached 15 million yuan before tax. From March 2021 to now, Ren Zeping has left Evergrande as chief economist of Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) .
(source: Beijing business daily)
