"2021 is a historic year for new energy and intelligent vehicles, although the continuous epidemic, the rise in the price of raw materials and the shortage of chips have made it difficult for the global automobile industry."
Recently, Wang Xia, President of the automobile industry branch of the China Council for the promotion of international trade, said at the 2022 (fourth) Haikou international new energy and intelligent network automobile exhibition, "At the capital level, the world's leading new energy vehicle enterprises broke through the market value of trillion US dollars for the first time, and the leading battery enterprises broke through the market value of trillion RMB. Electric intelligent vehicles continue to become a hot spot for global investment; at the market level, the sales of new energy vehicles by a single vehicle enterprise has been close to the economic scale of one million vehicles, medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) " Car sales exceeded 3 million for the first time, with an increase of 170%. Private users accounted for more than 80% and the market penetration exceeded 10% for the first time. "
Looking back on 2021, the shortage of chips, the rise of raw material prices and the shortage of batteries have made the upstream and downstream enterprises of the automobile industry chain move forward with heavy loads. However, despite the turmoil, there are still surprises. The new energy vehicle market will grow rapidly in 2021. According to the prediction of China Automobile Association (as of the press release of the reporter, the annual statistical data of China Automobile Association in 2021 has not been released), the annual sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile in 2021 is expected to reach 3.4 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, entering a new stage of explosive growth, changing from policy driven to market driven in the past.
In this year, Tesla made a breakthrough. In 2021, the global sales volume approached the million mark, and set a new record with the delivery of 936000 vehicles; Since Tesla took the global new energy sales crown in 2019, Byd Company Limited(002594) has firmly aimed at the title of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car champion, and is expected to continue to win the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car sales crown in 2021; "Wei Xiaoli" has crossed the line of life and death, only one step away from the goal of selling 100000 vehicles a year; Nezha, Weima and Zero run, the second echelon of the new forces of car making, reported good news frequently, realizing the double flowering of sales and capital; "Creating the second generation" from traditional car enterprises concentrated on the end and tried to fight a turnaround; Xiaomi, Baidu, apple, Huawei and Foxconn are ready to go to 2022; Traditional automobile giants such as Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, Mercedes Benz, BMW and Audi accelerate the launch and layout of new energy vehicle products in the Chinese market
At a time of frequent changes in the pattern, the competition in the new energy vehicle market will become more and more fierce in 2022.
the pattern is uncertain: how far is it from Tesla?
"Today, no enterprise has clearly said that it has won the first hand... I once chatted with Li Bin, \'we are all sitting at the card table, in the qualification competition, not in the knockout competition, not on the card table\'. Because today we are still very small." Previously, he Xiaopeng, chairman and CEO of Xiaopeng automobile, publicly said, "selling 100000 cars a year is the premise of all future possibilities."
In 2021, the three swordsmen Wei Lai, Xiao Peng and ideal, the head of the new car building force, crossed the line of life and death. The annual delivery volume of the three companies exceeded 90000 and moved forward to the knockout. This year, the pattern of "Wei Xiaoli" changed, and the first position of sales volume of new car manufacturing enterprises also changed in 2021. The total annual delivery of Xiaopeng automobile reached 98155 units, 3.6 times that of 2020, and the sales volume exceeded 10000 for four consecutive months. After the tragic moment in 2019 and the blessing of Hefei in 2020, Weilai finally crossed the life and death line of "100000" new cars in 2021, and the annual delivery reached 91429 units, doubling year-on-year. However, due to the shortage of chips and the epidemic, the supply chain is under pressure. Weilai has lost its throne since August last year, and its monthly sales have fallen out of the top three for many times, Sales fell to 3667 in October last year. The ideal car with only the ideal one delivered a total of 90491 units last year, a year-on-year increase of 177.4%, ranking among the top three new forces in car making.
It is worth noting that when the first echelon of the new forces of car making broke through the goal of delivering 10000 vehicles a month, the second-line head enterprises were also fighting back, and the pattern of "Wei Xiaoli" was once broken. Nezha automobile has repeatedly broken into the top three of the new forces of car making as a "dark horse". In 2021, the total delivery increased by 362% year-on-year, approaching 70000 units, ranking among the head camp of the second echelon. Holding hands with 360, the outside world began to look forward to more possibilities under the support of the Internet. Zero run (43000 vehicles will be delivered in 2021) and Weima (44000 vehicles will be delivered in 2021) are on the way to IPO, but living is still an important issue they are facing.
However, there is still a certain gap between China's new energy vehicle enterprises and Tesla in terms of market and technology. In 2021, although Tesla was plagued with negative news about vehicle quality and automatic driving safety, it did not seem to have an impact on its fundamentals. According to Tesla's official data, the global delivery reached 936200 vehicles in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 87%. Up to now, Tesla has not separately disclosed the sales volume in the Chinese market. If there is no accident, the delivery volume of nearly one million vehicles will help Tesla win the global sales of new energy vehicles in 2021.
smoke of gunpowder filled the air: traditional car companies accelerated the counterattack, and cross-border players bowed in
Facing the increasingly competitive new energy vehicle market, traditional vehicle enterprises have launched a fierce attack in 2021, which can be seen from the intuitive sales data.
Since Tesla took the global new energy sales crown in 2019, Byd Company Limited(002594) has firmly aimed at the title of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car champion. In 2021, Byd Company Limited(002594) new energy passenger vehicles sold 593700 vehicles in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of 231.6%, which is expected to continue to win the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car sales crown.
Volkswagen, which occupies a dominant position in China's fuel vehicle market, has made efforts in the electric vehicle market. Since its launch at the end of March 2021, ID. The family has delivered a total of 70625 vehicles, breaking 10000 for four consecutive months, and launched five pure electric models of Volkswagen id.4 crozz, id.4x, id.6 crozz, id.6 X and id.3.
As a new energy brand launched by traditional car companies, gac-e'an's cumulative terminal sales reached 123000 units in 2021, surpassing a new force in car making. It is worth mentioning that in 2021, gac-e'an's mixed reform will be hammered and steadily promoted. At present, gac-e'an is actively promoting employee stock ownership and subsequent round a financing, and will seek an appropriate time to go public later.
Xiao Yong, deputy general manager of GAC ea\'an New Energy Vehicle Co., Ltd., said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, "in the field of traditional fuel vehicles, the brand can survive with an annual production and sales of 200000 or even 150000 vehicles. However, the threshold of new energy vehicles is increasing. If the annual sales of less than 500000 vehicles, the brand will not become the mainstream in the next 3-5 years."
At the same time, the "creating the second generation" incubated by traditional car enterprises also began to increase. Ji krypton, a high-end new energy brand under Geely Automobile, will be delivered from October 2021, with a cumulative delivery of 6007 vehicles in 2021; Lantu automobile, a high-end new energy brand of Dongfeng Group, was delivered in August 2021, with a total of 6791 vehicles delivered by the end of the year; Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) its high-end pure electric brand Jihu delivered 4993 units in 2021.
In addition to the accelerated counterattack of traditional automobile enterprises, the entry of cross-border giants in 2021 stirred a pool of spring water, and Internet giants represented by Huawei, Baidu, Xiaomi, didi and 360 deeply poured into the automobile industry. As an important participant in the future of the automotive industry, the path for technology giants to participate in "car building" has been very clear.
Xiaomi's car making caused a sensation in the auto industry. Finally, it will fall into Yizhuang and build its own factory. It is expected that the first car will be offline and mass production will be realized in 2024. Huawei, which has repeatedly claimed not to build cars, adheres to two-line operation. One is to adopt the traditional Tier1 and tier2 parts supply mode, and the other is the "Huawei inside" (HI) mode deeply bundled with car enterprises. Its partners include BAIC, Chang\'an and GAC. In addition, the cooperation between Huawei and Thales is deeper. Following the launch of Thales sF5, Huawei released the new brand AITO and the first Hongmeng automobile M5. Baidu has planned three business models in the field of Intelligent Vehicles: Apollo cooperates with auto enterprises, cooperates with Geely to launch Jidu vehicles, and expands the demonstration operation of robotaxi.
At the end of June last year, the dispute between "body" and "soul" of SAIC chairman Chen Hong put the dispute over the dominance of intelligent vehicles in front of the stage again. When the competition in the automotive industry turns from the competition of products and technology to the competition of ecology, how will traditional automobile enterprises and technology companies compete for the voice of automobiles in the future? With the entry of more and more powerful competitors, the time left for Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car enterprises is really running out.
the subsidy will decline by 30%. Can new energy vehicles grow at a high speed in 2022?
With the increasing sales of new energy vehicles and the increasing penetration rate, the development of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles has entered a new stage. Huang Yonghe, senior chief expert of China Automotive Technology Research Center, believes that the main competitive point of electrification in the next step lies in intelligence and networking, including various differentiated products suitable for consumer consumption. "Considering the industrial development, especially the change of consumption structure, we predict that the market scale of new energy vehicles may reach 7 million and 14 million in 2025 and 2030, and the market share will reach 26% and 47%."
It is worth noting that the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will decline "as scheduled" at the beginning of 2022. On December 31, 2021, the subsidy scheme for the promotion of new energy vehicles in 2022 jointly issued by the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the development and Reform Commission requires that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021 and will be implemented from January 1, 2022. In this case, can the new energy vehicle market maintain rapid growth in 2022?
According to the policy, there is no subsidy for pure electric passenger vehicles with a range of less than 300 km, and the subsidy amount for pure electric passenger vehicles with a range of 300 km to 400 km (including 300 km) will be 9100 yuan in 2022, a decrease of 3900 yuan compared with 2021; For pure electric passenger vehicles with a range of more than 400 km (including 400 km) and a selling price of no more than 300000 yuan, the subsidy is 12600 yuan, and the subsidy is reduced by 5400 yuan; The subsidy for plug-in hybrid models (including added programs) decreased to 4800 yuan, a decrease of 2040 yuan.
In this context, many new energy vehicle enterprises continue to act on the price, or directly raise the price, or adjust the price over time.
On the last day of 2021, Tesla raised the price of its models again. According to Tesla China's official website, the price of model 3 rear wheel drive version was adjusted to RMB 26565200 and that of model y rear wheel drive version was adjusted to RMB 3018400, an increase of RMB 10000 and RMB 2108800 respectively compared with the previous price.
Last December, FAW Volkswagen also announced that the overall price of id.4 crozz and id.6 crozz electric vehicles will rise by 5400 yuan on January 1 this year. On January 9, SAIC Volkswagen indicated that it would purchase SAIC Volkswagen ID before February 28, 2022. Family models can enjoy SAIC Volkswagen New Energy subsidy of 5400 yuan. In addition, gac-e'an and Nezha automobile have also successively announced that after the subsidy in 2022, the selling price will be increased according to the decline of the subsidy.
Despite the "rise" of new energy vehicles, auto enterprises including Byd Company Limited(002594) , Euler, SAIC GM Wuling and Chery new energy are still on the sidelines. A Byd Company Limited(002594) salesperson in Guangzhou told reporters: "at present, the price of the models sold in the store has not increased, but it is uncertain when they will rise."
According to incomplete statistics, in the 12 years since 2009, the cumulative subsidy for Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles has reached 147.8 billion yuan, covering more than 1.9159 million new energy vehicles. Although the decline of subsidies has long been expected, it is a test to varying degrees for auto enterprises and consumers.
However, the industry generally believes that the new energy vehicle market has changed from policy driven to market driven, and the decline of subsidies has a limited impact on the overall market growth of new energy vehicles. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information joint committee, said: "the 30% decline in subsidies will have a certain impact on the growth rate of new energy vehicles. Facing the challenges of the post subsidy era, car enterprises are bound to adjust their prices. However, price increase is a short-term phenomenon. If car enterprises want to maintain competitiveness, price decline is a long-term trend."
Cui Dongshu judged that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was originally expected to be 4.8 million in 2022, but should be adjusted to more than 5.5 million at present, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles should reach about 25%. The sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%. With the significant improvement of Chinese consumers' recognition of the new energy market and the stability of policy subsidies, it is bound to promote the sharp increase in the total sales of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in 2022 and continue to maintain the super leading position of more than 50% of the world's share.
"The giants of traditional automobile enterprises have begun to invest huge amounts of money in new energy vehicles. The giants of larger Internet and technology companies have entered to build cars. The policy subsidies are about to disappear, and the next competition will only be more intense. Those brands that grow up through subsidies and lack competitiveness will withdraw quickly. The real competition has just begun, and the past was at most a warm-up." Wang Xia said.
When the bonus fades, it becomes clearer who is swimming naked. As the new forces of car manufacturing have crossed the threshold of annual sales of 100000, extremely krypton, lantu and extremely fox have begun to increase their volume, and cross-border models such as Xiaomi and Baidu have started mass production and delivery. The competition for new energy vehicles in the second half will be more intense - competing for products, capacity, cost, technology and user needs
Li Bin, founder and chairman of Weilai automobile, said recently: "from 2019 to 2024 is called the qualification stage, and 2024 and 2025 will be the real final stage." He believes that the qualification has entered the most critical three years, "how well the next three years are doing directly determines whether they can qualify."
(source: 21st Century Business Herald)
