According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, from 2010 to 2020, the global onshore wind power cost decreased by 56% from US $0.089/kwh to US $0.039/kwh; The cost of global offshore wind power decreased by 48% from US $0.162/kwh to US $0.084/kwh. Wind power is gradually becoming one of the most economical renewable energy sources in the world. China’s cumulative wind power capacity and growth rate led the world. By the end of 2020, China’s wind power installed capacity accounted for 38.5% of the world. The next 5-10 years will be a critical period for China’s energy transformation and green development. During the “14th five year plan” period, renewable energy will become the main body of China’s energy consumption increment. Wind power, as one of the main renewable energy, is expected to develop rapidly. A number of offshore wind power projects are ready to emerge. Many places have defined the construction plans of offshore wind power bases and actively promoted high-power models. We suggest paying attention to the investment opportunities of large tow carbon fiber, anhydride curing agent and domestic grouting materials brought by the innovation of blade materials and the accelerated rise of sea breeze in the process of upgrading and cost reduction of wind power industry.
The trend of large-scale blades is obvious, and large tow carbon fiber ushers in great industrial development. With the increase of wind turbine power, especially stimulated by the demand for offshore wind turbines, the trend of large-scale wind turbines in the world is becoming more and more obvious, and the requirements for lightweight, high strength, high stiffness and fatigue resistance of materials are becoming more and more clear, and carbon fiber just takes into account these characteristics. According to the prospectus of Zhongfu Shenying, the 120m wind turbine blade with carbon fiber can effectively reduce the overall weight by 38% and the cost by 14%. The large tow carbon fiber breaks the application limitations brought by the high price of carbon fiber and has broad development prospects in the field of wind power blades. Sao carbon fiber predicts that the global demand for carbon fiber in blades will reach 93400 tons in 2025 and the CAGR will be as high as 25% from 2020 to 2025. Chinese enterprises are expected to benefit from the trend of large-scale wind power blades by laying out large tow carbon fiber industrial chain. Beneficiary:
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) , Jilin Carbon Valley, Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) .
Blade pultrusion beam technology is becoming more and more mature, anhydride curing agent is emerging, pultrusion molding has significant advantages in girder manufacturing, and large-scale application in China is imminent. If the epoxy resin system is used as the curing agent, the viscosity of the resin system is large, and the mechanical properties and heat resistance will be greatly reduced and the electrical properties will be reduced after adding diluent; Using Methyltetrahydrophthalic anhydride as curing agent, it can maintain low viscosity in a few hours and has a good impregnation effect on carbon fiber. We estimate that the global installed capacity of wind power will increase by 120gw in 2025. According to the penetration rate of pultruded carbon beam, 16000 tons of anhydride will be added; Considering that the pultrusion process is also a trend in the traditional glass plate, the demand for anhydride of the overall wind power blade girder is expected to exceed 30000 tons, and the wind power blade will become a new downstream application of anhydride that can not be ignored. Beneficiary object: Puyang Huicheng Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300481) .
The vigorous development of sea breeze drives the demand for grouting materials, and domestic replacement is imperative. The grouting materials for offshore wind duct support need to have the characteristics of low water consumption, large fluidity, high early strength, ultra-high strength, micro expansion and high durability. We assume that an offshore wind turbine uses about 100-200 tons of grouting material. At present, the mainstream offshore wind turbine is about 8mW. According to China Energy News, the installed capacity of offshore wind power during the 14th Five Year Plan period has reached 45gw, with an average annual demand of about 113000-225000 tons of grouting material, corresponding to the market scale of 560-1130 million yuan. With the development of offshore wind power towards large-scale and deep sea, the use of grouting materials for single fan may increase.
At present, China’s grouting material market is mostly occupied by overseas chemical giants sika and BASF, and China’s technology enabled grouting material leading enterprises are rising rapidly. Beneficiary object: Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) .
Risk tip: the growth of wind power installed capacity is less than expected, the technological breakthrough is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified.
(source: open source securities)
