Market performance: the A-share market as a whole fell sharply this week. The gem index fell 2.2% and 2.7% in two consecutive trading days on January 4 and January 5. The weekly rise and fall of the Shanghai stock index and the gem index were - 1.7% and - 6.8% respectively. New energy, semiconductor, military industry and other sectors with good early gains retreated greatly, and undervalued sectors such as real estate industry chain and big finance performed better. In terms of market trading activity, the average daily turnover increased from 1 trillion yuan last week to 1.2 trillion yuan, and the turnover rate increased from 1.3% to 1.6%. The net capital inflow to the North slowed down, with a net inflow of 6.2 billion yuan this week.
Reasons for the recent market decline: driven by the retreat of new energy, semiconductor and military industries, the market fell as a whole this week. We believe that the recent market decline is mainly due to: 1. Some tracks, such as the double carbon track, are overvalued and have a long upward time, and the relative advantage decreases, dragging down the market. At present, the main line of the market is the theme of steady growth. Abundant liquidity is looking for undervalued value or theme sectors for allocation. Therefore, short-term real estate, large finance, large infrastructure and other sectors perform well. 2。 At the beginning of the year, affected by assessment factors, investors changed positions and shares, and the configuration style changed to a certain extent. Before the Spring Festival, investors will cash some funds, and the market fluctuated in the short term. 3。
On January 6, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the FOMC meeting in December to accelerate the discussion of taper, raise interest rates in advance and reduce the balance sheet, which had an impact on risky assets.
The index opportunity is small, and the stable growth expectation supports the market: the spring market has several characteristics: 1. Before the opening of the spring market, the market will generally experience a period of decline. The decline range of the early market determines the rebound strength of the spring market to a certain extent. 2。 Optimistic policy is a sufficient condition for the opening of the market in spring. Over the years, the release of liquidity by the central bank, the recovery of credit data and the maintenance of stability by regulators are all the driving forces for the upward market in spring. If the economic upward trend or the improvement of market fundamentals are superimposed, the increase will be greater during the market period. 3。 Electronics, home appliances, building materials and computers have performed well in previous spring markets. Looking forward to the future, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee stressed that next year's economic work should be "steady and seek progress while maintaining stability". At the same time, the central bank's RRR reduction also released a strong signal of steady growth. Under the condition that the expectation of marginal easing of monetary policy is relatively consistent, the signal of steady growth will provide power for the opening of the market in the spring of 2022.
Configuration suggestions: the macroeconomic downturn and the congestion of some track transactions in the first quarter are important factors restricting the upward market, but the abundant market liquidity and the relatively loose money credit cycle support the market. At present, the market sentiment is relatively low. It is suggested to adopt defensive strategy and wait for a new turn for the better in the market. In terms of industries, new energy related industries have a large increase and high valuation, and the recent risks have been released; Some industries with poor performance in the early stage, such as big finance and real estate, have no significant signs of improvement in fundamentals, but the valuation is low and defensive, and there is momentum for valuation repair in the short term. Recommended balanced configuration: 1. Semiconductor, military industry, green power, individual consumer goods and other high prosperity sub industries can be configured for a long time. 2。 Electronics, home appliances, building materials, computers and other sectors with good performance during the spring market. 3。 Large finance, large infrastructure and other sectors with valuation and repair power and both attack and defense are configured in a balanced manner.
Risk tip: the risk of policy exceeding expectations.
(source: China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities)
