respondents believe that the poor performance in the first week of 2022 does not mean the weakening of the market in the first quarter and even the whole year. A shares and Hong Kong stocks are valuation depressions in the global capital market. Performance is the king, which is the standard for stock selection. They pay attention to the home appliances and financial sectors with low valuation.
In 2022, there was no “good start” on the first trading day of a shares, and the performance was weak in the five trading days as of January 10. Baijiu and new energy stocks were “hurt”, and brother Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) were retreating larger, and the market value was 100 billion yuan. Pig spot fell sharply, while pork stocks rose against the market, with a cumulative increase of more than 5% in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in recent five trading days.
“Last year’s increase was too large, and profit taking occurred in the new energy sector. It is expected that the trend will show significant fluctuations and internal differentiation in 2022.” Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said that the poor performance in the first week of 2022 does not mean the weakening of the market in the first quarter and even the whole year. A shares and Hong Kong shares are valuation depressions in the global capital market. Performance is the king, which is the standard for stock selection. We pay attention to the home appliances and financial sectors with low valuation.
“Ning and Mao” will fall sharply
On January 10, A-Shares rebounded after falling in the morning, and finally rose and fell. The Shanghai index rose 0.39% to 3593.52 points, and the gem index fell 0.04% to 3095.69 points.
In the five transactions since 2022, the main indexes of A-Shares have been depressed, but the overall performance of individual stocks is more or less, and the daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has exceeded trillion yuan continuously. The Shanghai stock index fell by 1.27%, the gem index fell by nearly 7 points, and the Kechuang 50 index fell by nearly 6%.
In terms of sectors, real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, architectural decoration, etc. performed well, while power equipment, national defense and military industry, electronics, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage performed poorly. The reporter noted that the new energy and military industry sectors that rose like a rainbow in the early stage showed obvious characteristics of “profit taking”, and the decline was ahead.
Dragged down by “big brother” such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , the gem index fell significantly. Today, power equipment (Shenwan) and national defense industry (Shenwan) led the decline. In the five trading days since 2022, they led the decline by about 9% and 8% respectively. In terms of power equipment, the market value of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) with a market value of trillion yuan has fallen by more than 8% in recent five trading days, and the latest market value has evaporated about 120 billion yuan compared with the last trading day in 2021. Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) has decreased by more than 12%, and Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) has decreased by more than 7%.
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) the “drunken” performance in the previous trading days also broke the hearts of investors. It rebounded today and closed up 1.24%, and the decline narrowed to 4.1% in the past five trading days. The latest market value evaporated more than 100 billion yuan compared with the last trading day in 2021. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and other Baijiu stocks are not good enough, and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) is down nearly 10%.
On the eve of the Spring Festival, the stock market showed that it “doesn\’t like drinking”, but “likes eating meat”. Recently, pork, chicken and other stocks rose sharply. The trend of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (Shenwan) sector was gratifying. Today, it led the market with an increase of 3.59%, 82 related concept stocks closed up, leading stocks Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) rose by more than 5%, and 6 stocks such as Ningxia Xiaoming Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300967) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) rose by the limit. In the five trading days since 2022, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (Shenwan) sector has performed well, with a cumulative increase of more than 5%, and the cumulative increase of Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) has exceeded 20%.
Yang Delong analyzed to the reporter of the international finance news that the sharp decline of the new energy sector is more due to profit taking due to the excessive increase last year. However, the trend of long-term investment opportunities remains unchanged. It is expected that the trend of new energy will show significant fluctuations and internal differentiation in 2022. After the stock price rises, the stock valuation of many new energy is high, and the differences are bound to increase, resulting in stock price fluctuations. It is necessary to properly make some medium and long-term bands to prevent taking a “roller coaster”. After several consecutive years of expansion, new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic and wind power may experience a process from insufficient production capacity to overcapacity. The industry competition will increase and the industry leading enterprises will have more advantages.
how to configure in the first quarter
For the reasons for the market decline in recent days, Galaxy Securities analyzed that one is that some tracks, such as double carbon track, are overvalued and have a long upward time, and the relative advantage decreases, dragging down the market downward. At present, the main line of the market is the theme of steady growth. Abundant liquidity is looking for undervalued value or theme sectors for allocation. Therefore, short-term real estate, large finance, large infrastructure and other sectors perform well. Second, at the beginning of the year, investors changed positions and shares due to the impact of assessment factors, the configuration style changed to a certain extent, and some funds will be cashed by investors before the Spring Festival, and the market fluctuated in the short term. In the current depressed market sentiment, it is suggested to adopt defensive strategy and wait for a new turn for the better in the market. The valuation of the new energy sector releases risks. There is no obvious sign of improvement in the fundamentals of big finance and other industries, but the valuation is low and defensive, and there is momentum for valuation repair in the short term.
Yang Delong told the international finance news that with the economic recovery and the continuous development of countercyclical policies, the market of A-share market in the first quarter is worth looking forward to. The poor performance in the first week of 2022 does not mean the weakening of the market in the first quarter and even the whole year. A shares and Hong Kong shares are valuation depressions in the global capital market, and the performance is the king is the standard for stock selection.
Yang Delong suggested to allocate from the perspective of risk hedging and bottom reading, and pay attention to some wrongly killed white horse stocks, especially household appliances and financial sectors with low valuation. Due to the impact of strict implementation of epidemic prevention and control, consumption growth is suppressed, and the stock price may fluctuate. Those who hold consumption white horse stocks with stable growth can patiently wait for the market to pick up.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) believes that the current market is in the superposition period of “performance vacuum period, economic downturn period and epidemic recurrence period”. The valuation of the original mainstream track has been very full, but the existing new plate has not emerged, so the market as a whole is in a weak shock pattern. In the short term, we can continue to lay out stable growth sectors. In the medium term, growth tracks such as new energy and military industry sectors with more pullbacks are expected to rebound. When the valuation falls and the performance data is disclosed, the investment value will appear again.
(source: International Finance News)
