the strongest sound of track investment in recent years - the new energy vehicle sector, staged a dramatic and soul stirring play in early 2022.
in the first trading week of the new year, the main force of market adjustment focused on new energy vehicles, CXO medicine, medical treatment and chips. The new energy vehicle sector has eclipsed the "champion" fund in 2021, and the "champion curse" has been said again.
the reporter of China Securities Journal found that previously, fund managers generally expected that the new energy vehicle sector would be a pattern of structural differentiation in 2022, especially in upstream raw materials, midstream batteries and other links. With the change of supply and demand environment, investment opportunities will be deeply differentiated. However, fund managers also believe that the recent sharp decline in the new energy vehicle sector has exceeded market expectations. Under the condition that the long-term trend of the industry remains unchanged, the adjustment also gives investors a better layout time point.
Whole line adjustment of plate
The overall performance of the A-share market in the first trading week of 2022 was not satisfactory. The Shanghai stock index fell 1.65%, and the major indexes are still looking for short-term support after shock adjustment. The market profit-making effect was poor, and more than 3000 stocks fell. In the industry, the decline was mainly driven by new energy vehicles, CXO medicine, medical and chip sectors. The main rising sectors are mainly home appliances, banking, petroleum and petrochemical and real estate. According to wind data, 14 of the top 50 heavyweight stocks of public funds at the end of the third quarter of 2021 fell by more than 10% last week. Among them, Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) fell 19.32% in four trading days, Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) fell more than 15%, and Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) fell more than 8%.
The significant adjustment of the new energy vehicle sector has aroused market attention. The sector "flag bearer" Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell 8.18% in the four trading days of the first trading week of 2022. This makes the public fund income ranking of "talking about heroes with new energy vehicles" instantly "pale". According to wind data, as of January 8, the average decline of 56 active partial equity funds with the words "new energy" since 2022 was 7.35%, with a median decline of 7.93%. Moreover, the fund products that won the "champion" of fund income in 2021 due to their successful investment in new energy leading enterprises have encountered the nightmare of "opening the door to kill" and "champion curse".
"I thought of falling, but I didn\'t expect to fall like this." The sigh of Gu Cheng (a pseudonym), a fund manager in Shanghai, represents the voice of many fund managers investing in new energy vehicle racing tracks. The reporter of China Securities Journal also learned in the previous interview that most fund managers believe that the opportunity for the new energy vehicle sector to enter 2022 will be divided. For example, for investment in new energy vehicles, Zhao Yi of ABC Huili fund previously believed that differentiation will become the main feature of the sector in the next stage in an interview with China Securities Journal.
Zhao Yi said that in 2020, the leading stocks in the new energy vehicle sector performed well. In 2021, all industry companies, even as long as there is a concept of "new energy vehicle +" stocks, have achieved good gains. It is difficult to reproduce this situation in 2022. Following this logic, Zhao Yi said that with the further improvement of the valuation of industrial chain companies, there is also a "ceiling" for the upward share price, which ultimately depends on the performance growth. At present, excellent companies in the industrial chain can achieve further performance growth, but poor companies will encounter market test, and differentiation is inevitable. Choosing really good companies for investment will be the core "weapon" against differentiation and fluctuation.
Lin XiaoCong of Cathay Pacific Fund said that unlike the opportunities brought by the rise of raw material prices in the upstream and the "gap" between battery supply and demand in the midstream in 2021, the investment opportunities of new energy vehicles will be transferred to the downstream in the future, especially the vehicle enterprises affected by the rise of raw material prices and "lack of core". Once the repressive factors are lifted, its profit expectation and valuation space will open quickly.
\u3000\u3000 "From the perspective of stock investment, it is expected to be ahead of the fundamentals. 2021 is an ideal stage for new energy vehicle investment, realizing the simultaneous rise of volume, price and valuation. Unlike 2021, some new energy vehicle enterprises may face the situation of volume rise, price fall or flat in 2022, so the valuation is difficult to expand or shrink, which belongs to mean regression. In 2022, the investment in new energy vehicles should be" grounded ", To calculate factors such as sales volume, price and performance elasticity, we can\'t just look at logic and track. " Tao can and Tian Yuanquan, fund managers of CCB new energy industry stock fund, said when commenting on the recent sudden change in the market of new energy vehicles.
focus on industry prosperity and enterprise profit growth
Gu Cheng believes that the "race" between the expectations and fundamentals of the new energy vehicle sector seems to be ahead in terms of stages, so the sector has ushered in a large adjustment recently.
In the view of institutional investors, there are many reasons for the adjustment of the sector. Shen Chao, a macro strategy analyst at HSBC Jinxin, believes that the market performance at the beginning of 2022 is poor. On the one hand, the poor performance of the peripheral stock market is a drag on the A-share growth stock plate; On the other hand, some sectors rose greatly in the early stage, and there was a demand for changing positions in the new year, resulting in some sectors callback.
In addition to the macro environmental changes, what changes and changes have fund managers seen from the meso level of the new energy vehicle industry and the micro level of individual stock companies?
Recently, the "decline" of new energy vehicle subsidies has become a major factor for investors to attribute the decline of the sector.
"The decline of subsidies will occur every year. At present, the absolute amount of subsidies for new energy vehicles is small, so it is expected that the decline will have a limited impact on the overall demand. The sharp increase in the sales of new energy vehicles mainly comes from the rapid improvement of product power. In the future, we will see the further improvement of the iterative speed of electric vehicles, which is far higher than that of fuel vehicles, and the product advantage over fuel vehicles will expand." Qianhai open source fund Cui Chenlong said.
Zhao Yi believes that the decline of subsidies must be a trend, especially after the industry gradually matures, which is in line with the normal business logic. It is more necessary to return to the nature of products and see whether they have a better experience, more cost-effective and meet consumer needs. If the answer is yes, then subsidies are only a small and short-term influencing factor.
Therefore, the focus perspective of investment still needs to focus on the core areas - industry prosperity and enterprise profit growth. Cui Chenlong pointed out that due to the long industrial chain of new energy vehicles and the production expansion cycle, there is an imbalance between supply and demand in some links for a period of time, resulting in price fluctuations. These fluctuations are short-term factors and do not affect the long-term development trend and space of the industry. The potential demand for new energy vehicles is huge, and the advantageous products continue to be in short supply. According to the long-term space judgment, the current penetration rate of new energy vehicles is still low.
Tao can and Tian Yuanquan believe that in the first half of 2022, the supply of most upstream links in the industrial chain is tight. In the second half of 2022, with the release of new production capacity in some links, the supply and demand pattern will be improved, some links may reduce prices, and the stock price performance of the new energy vehicle industrial chain, especially the upstream links of lithium batteries, will be divided. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is the core index to characterize the development trend of the industry. With the continuous increase of the supply of high-quality models, the upward trend of penetration rate has not changed.
The monthly penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase significantly from 7% to 20% in 2021. Due to the base, the penetration rate will decrease in 2022, but the demand growth rate of new energy vehicles will remain high.
\u3000\u3000 "Looking back on the historical cycle, once the penetration rate of C-end consumer goods exceeds 3% - 5%, the penetration rate will increase rapidly. The core reason is the change of supporting facilities and supporting ecosystem. When the penetration rate increases, the supporting infrastructure will increase rapidly, the product technology iteration and fault resolution will accelerate, and the consumer experience will be greatly improved. At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and China's It has exceeded 10%, the global level is 5% - 10%, and new energy vehicles are still in the process of accelerating prosperity. At the same time, electric vehicles are only a scenario of battery applications. In 2021, we have seen applications in energy storage and other industries, such as electrification in heavy trucks, construction machinery and other fields, which has begun to increase gradually. It also means that new growth points of relevant enterprises have emerged, laying a foundation for the sustainable growth of enterprise performance. " Zhao Yi said.
grasp the investment rhythm
How do investors deal with the fluctuation of new energy vehicle investment?
\u3000\u3000 "For many companies in the field of new energy vehicles, the common view is that the valuation is too high, but it is not. The sharp rise in share prices of most enterprises, especially leading enterprises, in 2021 is due to the rapid growth of performance. Truly high-quality new energy vehicle enterprises have better investment value in 2022, and the recent adjustment is the time point for the layout of long-term institutional investors. For new energy vehicle enterprises, 20 In 21 years, with the gradual expansion of the industrial chain, the situation of short supply in the whole industrial chain will be gradually alleviated. The performance of competitive companies is expected to maintain high growth in 2022, but the performance of some companies may be lower than expected. " Zhao Yi's point of view is straightforward.
Tao can and Tian Yuanquan pointed out that the medium and long-term growth of the new energy vehicle industry is relatively certain, China's industrial competitive advantage is prominent, the overall valuation of the industry is reasonable, and there are still large investment opportunities in the medium term. If equity assets are to be allocated, the new energy vehicle industry is an important direction that needs continuous attention in the future. However, after two years of rise, there is a risk of rise and correction in the sector in the short term. For institutional investors, the rhythm of investment in 2022 is very important; For ordinary investors, if the funds related to the new energy vehicle industry chain have been laid out in the early stage, appropriate profit taking can be considered at this stage. If they have not laid out in the early stage and are optimistic about the industry in the medium and long-term dimension, they can intervene in the way of fixed investment.
"From the perspective of long-term investment, the best time to layout new energy vehicles is the past and the present." Cui Chenlong reminded Jimin that before investing in relevant funds, it must be fully aware that as a single track product, such funds generally have large volatility and many changes in the industry. Therefore, spare money that can be invested in a long cycle is suitable for buying single track funds with large volatility, and it is not recommended to buy such funds for funds that need to be used in a short time, In order to avoid losses due to mismatches in the nature of funds.
"We should not forget the high volatility of growth stock investment because of the continuous high boom and the continuous rise in the early stage. The combination of high yield and low volatility is not a long-term normal state. The market is telling investors this in its way. However, for investors, this\' education method \'is too harsh." Gu Cheng said.
However, it is interesting that investors are also adapting to the opportunities brought by the fluctuation of new energy vehicle investment. Wind data show that in the four trading days this year, the increased shares of new energy ETF, battery ETF, lithium battery ETF and new energy vehicle ETF have exceeded 100 million.
(source: China Securities Journal)
