The agency predicts that the global lithium carbonate gap will exceed 160000 tons in 2025, accounting for 13%. In other words, the global lithium carbonate supply and demand will remain in a tight balance in the next few years. Even if the recently rising prices will eventually fall, the "money path" of the lithium carbonate industry that has stood at the outlet is expected to be bright in 2022.
"We also predicted that it might reach 300000 yuan per ton before the Spring Festival. Unexpectedly, the price broke through the 300000 yuan mark after new year's day." For the recent continuous rise in the price of lithium carbonate, the person in charge of a lithium carbonate enterprise in Qinghai lamented to the reporter of Shanghai Securities News that the relationship between supply and demand is still very tense and is settled according to the "current price" every day.
To what extent? The person in charge said that customers who come to the door to "seek carbon" don\'t ask the price. Everyone takes the goods as soon as they have them. "Some customers can\'t get the goods with their \'relationship\', and the company doesn\'t have excess inventory at all." The person in charge said frankly that the latest transaction price of battery grade lithium carbonate produced by his enterprise is 320000 yuan / ton. In his opinion, lithium carbonate, which is already "sky high", does not worry about selling at all.
The latest data released by Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network on January 6 shows that the quotation of lithium carbonate has increased rapidly since December 27, 2021. After a one-day rise of 10000 yuan / ton on January 5, the quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate rose again on January 6, reaching the price of 292000 yuan / ton to 300000 yuan / ton. The average price of 296000 yuan / ton increased by 8000 yuan compared with the previous day, an increase of 6.47% compared with the beginning of the year.
In fact, there is a consensus that the expectation of the "new year" of new energy vehicles in 2022 will stimulate the soaring price of lithium carbonate, the upstream material of lithium battery, but what is the tension between supply and demand of lithium carbonate? How long will the price increase last? What price will it rise to? The common view in the industry is that the relationship between supply and demand cannot be balanced in the short term, and the price rise may continue until the middle of the year.
supply exceeds demand: money can't buy goods
Since last July, the average sales price of lithium carbonate has risen from 90000 yuan per ton to 300000 yuan per ton recently. For manufacturing enterprises, such a good day has not come to an end. The core of the price increase is due to downstream demand, which is mainly driven by the demand for new energy electric vehicles, and the demand for cathode materials, especially lithium iron phosphate, has increased significantly.
Easily know the east wind, colorful, always spring. The explosive growth of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the middle of 2021 is in sight. According to the statistical data of China Automobile Industry Association, by November 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles had completed 3.023 million and 2.99 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times.
The market outlook for 2022 seems more optimistic. Recently, Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Automobile Industry Association, said that the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market has entered a stage of rapid development. It is expected that the production and sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 5 million in 2022, realizing a growth rate of about 50%.
The strong support of the downstream terminal makes the price rise of upstream materials "no violation". The price of lithium carbonate is rising every day. Those who take the goods not only don\'t ask the price, but even the "trust relationship" can\'t get the goods.
"The customer's more problem is\' do you have any goods in your house \', which is really insensitive to the price." According to the analysis of executives of a lithium concentrate production enterprise in Tibet, the reason why customers are not sensitive to price should be that battery manufacturers have deeply realized the scarcity of lithium resources. "Spending more money to get resources may not be a bad thing. For battery manufacturers, they pay more attention to market share. Taking goods at high prices to grab the market is also to kill the enthusiasm of small factories to take goods, so as to better seize the market."
The downstream is not only insensitive to price, but also has a "situation that you can\'t get goods with money". Relevant persons of Zangger lithium industry under Zangger mining told reporters that Zangger lithium industry produced 7500 tons of lithium carbonate in 2021. With 4000 tons of inventory in 2020, it has been basically sold out and has no inventory, which can not meet the demand of existing orders.
price outlook: up to 400000 yuan / ton?
"For every additional new energy vehicle, the average consumption will increase by 40 kg to 50 kg of lithium carbonate. As long as there is demand in the downstream of the market, there will be price support." Relevant persons of Zangger lithium industry further said that for the downstream, after the high price lithium carbonate is allocated to the whole vehicle of new energy vehicles, the cost accounts for about 5%, and the prices of electrolyte and negative electrode materials have not increased greatly. At present, the price increase of lithium carbonate does not have a great impact on the downstream cost of the industrial chain, which is also one of the reasons why customers are not sensitive to the price increase of lithium carbonate.
"Judging from the recent sales situation, the price increase can continue, and it is not a big problem to break through 400000 yuan per ton." For the price rise logic, a person from a lithium carbonate enterprise in a share believes that some new or expanded cathode material plants of Chinese lithium battery manufacturers will enter the production period in the second half of 2022. Their rigid demand for lithium carbonate raw materials will support the rise of lithium carbonate price, and the price rise may continue until the middle of the year.
Taking the positive electrode material manufacturer taifengxian as an example, the company now has an annual production capacity of 30000 tons of lithium battery positive electrode materials. The company's expansion project "intelligent manufacturing base of high energy density lithium battery materials with an annual output of 160000 tons" has been completed and will be put into operation this year. People close to the company told reporters that as long as there is demand downstream, the company's production expansion project can quickly "enter the state".
The big expansion of the battery factory has added confidence to the upstream price rise. Since 2021, many power battery enterprises, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , honeycomb energy, AVIC lithium battery, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , have announced that they will build new lithium battery projects and expand production capacity. According to incomplete statistics, only the head power battery enterprises announced that the new production capacity in the next five years has exceeded 2000gwh, about 20 times the loading volume this year.
A researcher from a securities firm said that with the continuous production of new projects by downstream battery manufacturers, the lithium carbonate market will remain high in 2022. Perhaps the estimated price of 400000 yuan per ton by manufacturers is not a high point.
scarce resources: it is difficult to fill the gap in the short term
Behind the tight supply-demand relationship of lithium carbonate is the scarcity of lithium resources, and the difficulty and progress of lithium resource development are difficult to match. The speed and magnitude of downstream demand growth is the key to the problem. The prediction of the more scarce market situation in 2022 has led to the sharp rise of lithium carbonate price at this stage.
Some professional organizations have issued warnings. For example, S & P's global market intelligence raised the global lithium carbonate supply in 2022 from 497000 tons predicted in 2021 to 636000 tons, and raised the lithium carbonate demand from 504000 tons predicted before to 641000 tons, or even higher.
It can also be seen from the current public disclosure that there will be no large increase in lithium carbonate capacity in 2022. Taking Qinghai Salt Lake, which accounts for half of China's lithium extraction market, as an example, its annual lithium carbonate output in 2021 is about 100000 tons, and its maximum new capacity in 2022 is Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) . Its Lanke lithium industry completed and put into operation a 20000 ton battery grade lithium carbonate project last October.
In fact, the new capacity of the 20000 ton project of Lanke lithium industry is the most determined "increment" of Qinghai Salt Lake in 2022. Even if the production process level of lithium extraction enterprises is further improved, the new lithium carbonate capacity of Qinghai Salt Lake in 2022 is very limited.
Tibet, which is also rich in salt lake resources, is still unable to directly produce lithium carbonate products in 2022 due to infrastructure conditions and other problems. Specifically, the Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) 10000 ton battery grade lithium carbonate project with an investment of nearly 2 billion yuan, which has the mining right of Zabuye Salt Lake, the third largest salt lake in the world, is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of September 2023.
capacity Outlook: it is expected to ease in 2023
"Because lithium carbonate production needs resources, there is still a process to obtain mining rights, and enterprises with mining rights have been implementing the development plan. In fact, there are no large projects to start construction, so the capacity release may be after 2023." Some people familiar with lithium mine development said that in the face of the industry pattern of short supply, lithium carbonate enterprises with lithium resources should speed up their development. If the development progress of Tibet salt lake resources and South American salt lakes is accelerated, the relationship between supply and demand in the market may be eased.
It should also be noted that due to the scarcity of lithium resources, it seems more and more difficult for downstream manufacturers to achieve "guaranteed supply" by acquiring upstream resources. The best case is that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) lithium battery giants acquired overseas lithium mine assets in 2021.
Facing the scarcity of lithium resources and the broad prospects of downstream terminals, downstream battery manufacturers have to take a default attitude towards the soaring lithium carbonate. However, there is an end to the price rise. In order to better promote industrial development, downstream manufacturers also began to achieve the purpose of seizing resources through cooperation with upstream.
Take Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) as an example, the company and Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) signed a cooperation agreement in mid December 2021. The two sides intend to cooperate in depth in the fields of new energy, lithium battery and so on; In August 2021, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) controlling shareholder China Baowu group, which involves Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) lithium resource development cooperation, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) preferred Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) as a strategic supplier of lithium carbonate.
Downstream embracing upstream can not fundamentally solve the problem of lithium resource scarcity. Some institutions predict that the global lithium carbonate gap will exceed 160000 tons in 2025, accounting for 13%. In other words, the global lithium carbonate supply and demand will remain in a tight balance in the next few years. Even if the recently rising prices will eventually fall, the "money path" of the lithium carbonate industry that has stood at the outlet is expected to be bright in 2022.
"What can really solve the problem depends on recycling and recycling. A series of support policies have been issued in this regard, and many companies are practicing and exploring." Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) a researcher introduced to reporters. The reporter learned that at least three listed companies in China have built lithium resource recovery lines, but the capacity scale is small. There is still much to be done in this regard.
The price of lithium carbonate is reported at 300000 yuan / ton, and the supply and demand ends or supporting prices continue to rise (with shares)
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : in 2022, the lithium carbonate shortage may rise to 500000 / T. who has the strongest premium ability in the industrial chain?
(source: Shanghai Securities News)
