"Deltacron" covid-19 strain strikes, adding new variables to the global epidemic?
Against the background of the tense global epidemic situation, bad news suddenly came out. On January 9, foreign media reported that the recombinant covid-19 strain of delta and Omicron was suspected to be found in Cyprus. Its gene is closer to delta strain, but it has a large number of unique variants of Omicron strain, which is named "deltacron". At present, 25 people have been found to be infected with the new "deltacron" strain. Whether the strain is more pathogenic and infectious remains to be further observed.
At present, the covid-19 strain that poses the greatest threat to the world is still "Omicron", which is spreading rapidly all over the world. The first is the United States. The average number of new cases in the United States in seven days exceeded 660000 in a single day, with a month on month increase of 72%, and Omicron accounted for more than 95%; The United Kingdom, France, Italy, Ireland and other European countries all set a new record in a single day; Australia added more than 110000 newly confirmed cases in a single day, setting a new historical record; The epidemic situation in India is more dangerous. In the random test, at least 400 people in the Indian Parliament tested positive for covid-19.
In this context, the global demand for covid-19 detection and oral drugs has further surged. At present, the United States is facing a shortage of covid-19 detection kits. The kits in American pharmacies are basically sold out, and the covid-19 kits with two doses of quick screening are fried, with a price increase of 188% - 471%.
the new strain of "delcron" is coming?
A newly discovered covid-19 strain has made the global epidemic situation more tense.
On January 9, Israel's Jerusalem Post quoted Cyprus media reports that researchers at the University of Cyprus suspected that they had found a recombinant covid-19 strain of delta and omecron, whose gene was closer to delta strain, but had a large number of unique variants of omecron strain. Therefore, the strain was named "deltacron" by researchers.
Once the news was reported, it attracted global attention. On the same day, # the topic of the suspected discovery of the recombinant strain # of delta Omicron directly topped the microblog hot search list, and the reading of relevant topics exceeded 240 million.
After sequencing 1377 samples, the research team in Cyprus found that 25 people were infected with the new "delta Kron" strain. Although its gene sequence was close to that of delta strain, there were 10 unique variants of Omikron strain. At the same time, up to 14 of the 25 infected people were hospitalized.
At present, the team has uploaded the genome of the strain to the gisaid international database, and will continue to observe whether this variant is more pathogenic or infectious, or whether it will be popular. However, in addition to causing widespread concern, the discovery of the strain also has some controversy.
Thomas picock of Imperial College London commented that there are some signs that the so-called "deltacron" strain may be the result of contaminated gene sequencing.
In fact, as early as December 2021, vaccine manufacturer Moderna warned that in the process of simultaneous transmission of Omicron and delta strains, a person may be infected with two strains at the same time, and the possibility that the two strains will mutate into a "super variant" is not ruled out.
According to historical experience, the probability of coronavirus recombination is relatively high. In August 2021, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory published a paper saying that the recombination greatly accelerated the emergence of new variants of covid-19 virus.
Gao Fu, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and director of the China Center for Disease Control and prevention, once the coronavirus recombines, the risk will be higher than the naturally mutated strain. Zhang Wenhong, director of the national infectious diseases Medical Center, also said that if the highly infectious Omicron virus strain recombines with other coronaviruses, such as mers (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus), the situation may be worse.
However, according to the data found so far, it is temporarily impossible to judge whether the "deltakron" virus strain will infect more people, and it is impossible to evaluate its possible impact. In an interview, the research team in Cyprus said that it is necessary to continue to monitor the pathogenicity and infectivity of the virus strain. At present, the risk is lower than that of the global transmission of Omicron virus.
the global epidemic is urgent again
At present, the covid-19 strain that poses the greatest threat to the world is still "Omicron", which is spreading rapidly all over the world.
The first is the United States. According to the data of the Centers for Disease Control and prevention, at present, Omicron accounts for more than 95.4% of the new cases in the United States, replacing Delta as the main variant virus in the United States. At the beginning of December last year, the confirmed cases infected with Omicron accounted for only 1%. Thus, Omicron's amazing propagation speed.
With the spread of the Omicron strain, the number of confirmed cases in the United States has been high. According to the latest report of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and prevention, after the number of newly confirmed cases exceeded 1 million on January 3, the average daily new cases in the United States reached 663735 in seven days, an increase of 72% over the previous week. So far, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of covid-19 in the United States is close to 60 million.
On the 7th local time, wallensky, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and prevention, warned that judging from the experience of South Africa, the current round of covid-19 epidemic in the United States has not reached its peak, and the infection of Omicron virus strain is stronger, which means that there will be more infection cases in the United States.
This undoubtedly puts great pressure on the American medical system. The associated press commented that the Christmas and New Year holidays have led to the travel of American people and the havoc of Omicron, resulting in an "explosive growth" in the number of covid-19 infections in the United States, which is now leading to the "disintegration" of basic public services.
According to the data of the U.S. Department of health and human services, as of July 7, the number of hospitalized patients with covid-19 pneumonia in the United States had reached 132000, close to the peak of 142000 in mid January 2021. The surge in hospitalizations has forced nearly 50% of state hospitals in the United States to postpone non emergency surgery.
Europe is also facing the rapid spread of Omicron strain. Britain, France, Italy, Ireland and other countries have significantly set a new record in one day. The European Center for Disease Control and prevention predicts that the Omicron strain will replace the delta strain in the first two months of 2022 and become the main epidemic strain in Europe.
On January 8, 313 deaths of covid-19 were reported in the UK. The cumulative number of deaths exceeded 150000 for the first time, reaching 150057; The number of confirmed cases per day is still as high as 146000. In addition, there are more than 300000 newly confirmed cases in France in a single day, and the number of newly confirmed cases has exceeded 300000 for two consecutive days.
On January 8, Australia added 116025 confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia in a single day, breaking the record of the highest new confirmed cases since the epidemic. According to the local health department, the number of inpatients will rise sharply in the next two to three weeks, and hospitals across Australia will face a severe test.
It is worth noting that the epidemic situation in India is more dangerous and even threatens the Indian Parliament. According to Indian television, at least 400 people in the Indian Parliament tested positive for covid-19 during the random test from January 6 to 7 local time. The 400 people were parliamentary staff and security personnel. In order to contain the epidemic, the Indian capital has entered a state of alert, and the city has implemented a weekend curfew policy.
The good news is that the case fatality rate of the Omicron strain is much lower than that of the delta strain. The latest research from many universities in the United Kingdom and the United States shows that the case fatality rate of the Omicron strain is almost close to that of the flu. In addition, data show that the case fatality rate of covid-19 in the UK has decreased from 3% in the winter of 2020 to 0.15% by the end of December 2021.
However, Zhang Wenhong warned at an offline meeting on January 8 that Omicron would "bite" people who lack immunity.
American "crazy robbery" covid-19 kit
According to the current research data, the main characteristics of the strains are strong infectious, high incidence rate, low hospitalization rate and low mortality rate. Therefore, the global demand for COVID-19 detection and oral drugs has increased sharply.
According to CCTV news, the United States is facing a shortage of covid-19 test kits. The kits in American pharmacies are basically sold out. Most covid-19 test points in the United States are overcrowded and even need to queue for hours to complete the test.
There is even speculation about covid-19 kit. According to foreign media reports, in the U.S. market, the price of covid-19 kit with two doses of quick screening is usually $14-24 / box. Now, due to the shortage of goods, the price has doubled several times in some markets to $75 / box (about 478.2 yuan), and even $80 / box (about 510.1 yuan), The increase was as high as 188% - 471%.
stimulated by this, the A-share in vitro diagnosis sector rose sharply last Friday, and the sector index rose nearly 3%. Faucet Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) has been very awesome recently, and its stock price hit a record high last Friday. Covid-19 detects "demon stocks" - Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) rose more than 6% last Friday. It is worth noting that since November 2021, Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) has increased by 770%. And Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) won the 20cm limit again last Friday.
Ma Shuai of Anxin Securities said that with the rapid spread of Omicron strain, the further promotion of home self inspection products in the United States and the upcoming spring semester in January, the demand for covid-19 detection will continue to be stimulated. Based on the judgment of future industry trends, it is expected that the total covid-19 testing market scale in Europe and the United States is expected to reach US $3.391 billion, equivalent to about 22 billion yuan in 2022.
At the same time, the first local confirmed case of Omicron virus infection occurred in Tianjin, China; The epidemic situation in Shenzhen has also been repeated. A wide range of nucleic acid testing will be carried out, and the demand for covid-19 testing will continue to expand.
In addition, the vaccine is still one of the effective weapons against the Omicron strain. Zhang Wenhong believes that at present, the enhanced vaccine by vaccinating covid-19 can still provide effective protection against severe cases caused by Omicron mutant strain, and encourage people to actively vaccinate.
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(source: China Securities Company)
