Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the collapse of the high track reappears, and the starting point of the market in the first half of the year will be delayed
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the sharp position adjustment of institutions at the beginning of the year accelerated the “high cut to low”, and the collapse of high-level tracks reappeared. Stable growth is the main line for at least the first quarter. The market consensus on low-level blue chips will be strengthened, the starting point of the market in the first half of the year will be delayed, and the short-term adjustment will bring a better allocation time point. on the one hand, the pre disclosure of the annual report is gradual, the performance of the high track is difficult to exceed expectations, the performance of the low plate is difficult to be lower than expectations, and the configuration cost performance changes one after another. The sharp position adjustment effect of the organization at the beginning of the year accelerated the “high cut low”, and the sudden collapse and reappearance of the high track is the main reason for the market adjustment at the beginning of the year. On the other hand, infrastructure first and real estate later, the steady growth policy in the first quarter is expected to move from relay to joint force, and the relevant main lines have strong sustainability. It is expected that the economic data disclosure in the fourth quarter of 2021 will confirm the bottom recovery trend of the economy, and there is sufficient guarantee for stabilizing the economy and the market; In addition, the impact of peripheral liquidity expectations on the market is gradually weakening.
the starting point of the market in the first half of the year will be delayed. The first quarter is still the best participation window for the blue chip market in the whole year. The short-term adjustment will bring a better allocation time point. It is suggested to continue the firm layout around the “three low positions”. in terms of industry configuration, we continue to recommend “three low levels”, including: 1. Varieties whose fundamentals are still expected to be low, and focus on midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as vehicle, lithium battery cell, photovoltaic equipment, etc; In addition, some of the consumer industries represented by Baijiu in the fourth quarter of 2021 have already fulfilled the larger valuation restoration. It is suggested that the basic expectations in the first quarter of this year are still at a low level of tax exemption and entertainment consumption. 2. For the varieties whose valuation is still relatively low, it is recommended to pay attention to the high-quality developers, building materials and home furnishing enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, the Internet leaders of Hong Kong stocks after the impact of medium concept stocks, and the fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials; 3. High boom varieties with relatively low stock price after adjustment, such as semiconductor equipment driven by localization logic, special chip devices and military industry.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: value returns to the stage, focusing on undervalued
According to Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities, since the beginning of 2022, the A-share market has experienced some adjustment, and the gem index and CSI 1000 index have decreased by 6.80% and 4.09% respectively. Behind the analysis of market fluctuations, the core lies in the valuation pressure caused by the expected change of liquidity at the denominator. On the one hand, what we see is that the demand for steady growth has been further established, and the expectation of economic growth has changed from the original fear of stalling to the expectation of stabilizing; On the other hand, what we see is the consensus judgment of the market on the downward earnings of 22q2. Therefore, the “poor” of molecular end profit is not the leading factor in the current market. In contrast, at the denominator end, China’s loose expectations tend to be consistent and the marginal increment is less. Superimposed on overseas monetary policies, the adjustment of market liquidity expectations was accelerated, and the investment focus was switched from high growth to undervalued value. on the whole, taking steady growth as the anchor, with the expected improvement of fundamentals, the valuation repair channel is opening. In the future, on the basis of grasping the high prosperity, we should face up to the matching degree between profit and valuation, and grasp the investment opportunities of value style.
industry configuration: focus on undervalued value and grasp consumption and infrastructure repair. is accompanied by market driving force from molecular end to denominator end, investment focus switch from high growth to underestimation, and according to the order of steady growth, the overcorrection of pessimistic expectations is superimposed. Recommendation: 1) consumption: accelerate the expected bottom; recommend the direction of pig, household appliances, furniture, social service / tourism, Baijiu and so on with supporting performance and negative expectation. 2) Infrastructure: improve infrastructure investment and help “revitalize infrastructure” exceed expectations in the future: building materials, construction, power operation, etc; 3) Finance: securities companies and banks; 4) Consumer electronics.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : continue to take “steady growth” as the main line, and manufacturing growth is waiting for a turnaround
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that after the indicators gradually improve, the market may reverse the downturn and gradually turn positive, focusing on bank credit, social financing, project approval of the national development and Reform Commission, increased financial support, housing related policies, etc. In terms of style, we believe that “stable growth” will still be the main line of the market in the near future, while the manufacturing growth style may continue to be suppressed, and we still need to wait for the opportunity.
industry configuration suggestions: continue to take “steady growth” as the main line, and manufacturing growth is waiting for a turnaround. 1) areas potentially supported by marginal policy changes or forces, including industrial chains related to stable demand for infrastructure and real estate (construction, building materials, household appliances, home furnishings, real estate, etc.), potential consumption support areas, securities companies, etc; 2) For the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted this year, the valuation is not high, and the medium – and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including household appliances, light industrial homes, automobiles and parts, Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine, aviation and hotels; 3) The short-term share price of the manufacturing growth sector with a large increase last year may be restrained, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors. The potential turnaround depends on the change of market style again. The potential time point may be at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter.
Haitong strategy: the spring market can still be expected, and the structure is balanced
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that in the beginning of the year, the plates were switched from high to low, and the four plates were compared horizontally: the overvalued value of new energy was high, the boom was booming, the need for valuation digestion and other changes in the market environment. The valuation of financial real estate is at the bottom and the institutions are low, and the space for valuation repair in history is also considerable. The counter cyclical sector benefits from the steady growth policy, which is already in force. The industry in trouble is expected to reverse this year, and the performance is clear. The inflection point needs to wait for “April decision”. Referring to history, after the decline in the beginning of the year, the market can still be expected in the spring. It is structurally balanced and underestimated big finance + new and old infrastructure powered by policies.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : continue to be optimistic about the undervalued repair market, and the hard science and technology sector has been fully adjusted
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said it continued to be optimistic about the undervalued repair market. For the “new half army” and other hard science and technology plates, combined with the five crowding index and previous callbacks, the current adjustment space has been relatively adequate. In the short term, on the one hand, grasp the phased opportunities for the repair of undervalued real estate chain, infrastructure chain and securities companies, on the other hand, lay out “small high-tech” with long fighting short and bargain hunting.
Focus on three directions: 1) real estate chain and infrastructure chain: on the one hand, benefiting from marginal changes in policies, “steady growth” is expected to rise. The economic work conference called for “moderately advanced infrastructure investment” and “promoting the construction of indemnificatory housing”. On the other hand, the subsequent monetary and credit is expected to be further relaxed, which will also bring about the valuation repair of infrastructure, real estate and other sectors. 2) Securities companies: the economic work conference proposed to “fully implement the stock issuance registration system”, which is expected to support the long-term performance of securities companies. At the same time, with the continuous deduction of the cross-year market, as a plate with strong linkage with the market, securities companies β Attributes will also be fully interpreted and released.
3) The scientific and technological growth represented by “small high tech” is arranged on a bargain hunting basis. Recently, the scientific and technological growth plate has been adjusted, which is mainly disturbed by factors such as position, mood and style. However, in combination with the five congestion indicators and previous callbacks, the space for subsequent adjustment may be limited. In the medium and long term, scientific and technological growth is still the inevitable choice for high-quality development and bigger cake under common prosperity. It is also one of the most distinctive themes of the times to meet the urgent need to improve scientific and technological competitiveness and get rid of the “neck stuck” dilemma under the background of the game between China and the United States.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : A shares are “cold in spring” in the short term, and the positive trend in the medium and long term remains unchanged
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has welcomed style rebalancing under the disturbance of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the valuation adjustment of the high boom track. Considering the current loose liquidity in China, the gradual introduction of counter cyclical policies and the reasonable overall valuation of the market, we are still optimistic about A-Shares in the medium and long term. We believe that the signal of the end of this round of A-share “spring cold” cycle: China’s monetary policy has changed from “steady and neutral” to loose again, and China’s monetary and fiscal forces have once again contributed to “stable growth”.
Investment strategy: A shares are still in the current “cold spring” cycle, and adhere to the main line of “stable growth” in terms of configuration. Since the beginning of the year, under the disturbance of the Fed’s monetary policy and the valuation adjustment of the high boom track, the A-share market has welcomed style rebalancing. Considering the current loose liquidity in China, the gradual introduction of counter cyclical policies and the reasonable overall valuation of the market, we are still optimistic about A-Shares in the medium and long term. We believe that the signal of the end of this round of A-share “spring cold” cycle: China’s monetary policy has changed from “steady and neutral” to loose again, and China’s monetary and fiscal forces have once again contributed to “stable growth”. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to take “steady growth” as the main line: first, it is related to traditional infrastructure, such as building materials and buildings; Second, the real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chain benefiting from the marginal improvement of real estate policy. Focus on theme: meta universe, traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
Guosheng Securities: what is the difference between the current and the beginning of 2021?
Guosheng Securities believes that in 2022, A-Shares are “not popular”, and institutional heavy position stocks and popular track stocks break and callback. The external is also impacted, the global risk appetite drops sharply, and the value strategy is sought after. The scene of deja vu at the beginning of 22 years inevitably reminds people of the Spring Festival market of 21 years. The scene of deja vu at the beginning of 22 years inevitably reminds people of the Spring Festival market of 21 years. In conclusion, there are many similarities between the two segments of the market: first, the market trend is similar, which is also the high valuation of heavy stocks; Second, the contributing factors are from the jump in US bond interest rates, and the external environment is generally similar (epidemic easing + inflationary pressure); Third, it is difficult to continue incremental funds, which is another important reason for the stampede of heavy warehouse stocks.
At the current time point, the two practical problems for market research and judgment are: 1. How to evaluate the level of this round of adjustment? 2. Will the track market reappear in the medium term in the future?
On the first question, the market at the beginning of the 21st century does have a strong reference significance for short-term judgment. As mentioned above, the current round of market decline mainly comes from external shocks (changes in US bonds) and capital difficulties (the increment at the beginning of the year is difficult to exceed expectations), while the fundamental trend has not changed fundamentally, and the macro environment is evolving in the direction conducive to equity assets. Therefore, referring to the beginning of the 21st century, it can be defined as the monthly level adjustment, and the pressure is mainly concentrated in the overvalued value and heavy position sectors. Second, we believe that history is not a simple repetition, and the follow-up market of 21 years is difficult to reproduce in the medium term in the future. In the medium term of the future, the internal and external environment has reversed the trend compared with 2021: China’s steady growth policy is in full force, the credit pulse has bottomed out and rebounded, and the short-term double carbon target may also be loosened; The external Federal Reserve strengthened its expectation of shrinking the table and probably started to raise interest rates in the first half of the year. It is the general trend to tighten global liquidity. These are the differences from 21 years, which also means that the follow-up market in 21 years is of little significance for the medium-term reference in the future.
Core conclusions and strategic suggestions: (1) credit conditions are about to stabilize in a real sense. The inflection point at the bottom of m1-ppi has been confirmed. The probability will continue to repair upward in the later stage, continue to be optimistic about the repair of value stocks in the medium term, and recommend high-quality banks, state-owned enterprise developers and buildings / building materials in the direction of steady growth; （2） The new infrastructure development direction is: wind and solar energy storage, power operation and communication; （3） Auto parts and household appliances with reversed upstream costs benefit from low valuation and concept catalyzed media.
YueKai Securities: the restlessness in spring under steady growth can still be expected, first the market α Posterior disc β Market
YueKai Securities said that the policy expectation before the two sessions of the “calendar effect” of A-Shares is expected to heat up. According to the statistics, the A-share market has performed well in terms of the winning rate and the average rise and fall in the 15 trading days after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years. We think it is difficult to end the agitation in spring. The logical support behind this round of market is: this round of market starts from the wide currency + wide credit brought by the expected rise of steady growth under the economic downturn cycle. At present, there is still room for wide currency, wide credit has yet to be effective, and both expectations have not been fulfilled.
No. 1 central document and local NPC and CPPCC held at the end of January -2. Since 2004, the central government has issued the No. 1 central document entitled “three rural” (agriculture, rural areas and farmers) for 18 consecutive years. According to the situation in previous years, agriculture and seed industry sectors will have good performance, but the sustainability is poor. Mid March: focus on setting the tone of the national two sessions. Whether it is the local two sessions or the national two sessions, the annual work deployment is established, indicating the new direction of reform and the layout of key industries supported by policies throughout the year, so as to promote the steady growth and the expected warming of key supporting industries this year. Pay attention to the main line of steady growth and undervalued value, real estate, building materials, household appliances in the infrastructure and real estate chain, as well as consumer industries that expand domestic demand; High quality transformation development focuses on high-end manufacturing and energy transformation.
In terms of rhythm, with the gradual convening of the local two sessions and the establishment of the work deployment of the whole year, the market is expected to gradually stabilize in late January. With the expected warming before the national two sessions, it is expected to launch the restless market in spring. It is suggested to pay attention to the performance of large cap stocks in the near future by looking back on the direction of high winning rate and high odds of historical A shares α Opportunities, focus on the development of small and medium-sized stocks after the festival β Flexibility.
Minsheng Securities: the style of value outperforming growth is expected to continue, waiting for the new consensus of the market
Behind the market adjustment is the plate with high growth rate and independent of the assumption of economic aggregate recovery. Under the lack of valuation protection, the expected rate of return of “good can be better” may not be rich. Institutions do not always choose to pursue assets with high growth rate. In the environment where the prosperity begins to spread, high growth rate is not the first demand of institutional investors, and more cost-effective assets are the allocation direction. Recently, the value style of China and the United States stock markets has begun to significantly outperform the growth style. In the funds going north, even the allocated funds have reversed. We think this change will continue in the future.
the probability of stabilization and recovery of future demand is increasing. In the long-term dimension, the value outperforms the growth with directional certainty. However, it is still in the “expected deduction” stage, and it will take time for the cohesion of new market consensus. Growth investors can wait for a good switching opportunity, and value investors should also grasp the most certain path in demand recovery. at present, in terms of reducing energy and carbon neutralization costs, China obviously has stronger execution and determination than overseas, which will benefit the varieties whose cost depends on China’s energy and environment (such as electrolytic aluminum and coal chemical industry). The constraint of inflation in the recovery of demand should not be forgotten, which is an opportunity and greater challenge in the future. We recommend nonferrous metals (aluminum, copper), crude oil chain (oil service, oil transportation), real estate, banking, steel, coal and construction.
The theme recommends Rural Revitalization (county consumption, agrochemical industry and seed industry).
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) : focus on the market “high-low switching” opportunity
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that at present, the overall A-share market still shows an obvious structural market. In the window period of overseas interest rate hike, China is still expected to maintain a reasonable margin of liquidity. Under this support, the market may enter the “high-low switching” stage, and the undervalued board is expected to be the first to be repaired, Previously, some track stocks with high congestion may face greater selling pressure in the adjustment. On the whole, “structural bull” will become the main line of market style throughout 2022. At present, it may coincide with the better allocation period of switching to low market blue chips. It is suggested to actively adjust positions and grasp the opportunities in the “high-low switching” of the market.
In terms of industry, (1) pay attention to the low reversal opportunity of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery plate. At present, the valuation of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector, represented by the pork breeding sector, is relatively low. Near the Spring Festival, the stronger downstream demand may bring seasonal rise opportunities to the sector. Although the recent epidemic disturbance continues, combined with the mandatory consumption attribute of the sector, the impact or the whole is limited. At the same time, the pork sector is about to enter the stage of accelerated capacity removal, In the second and third quarters, the pig price is expected to harvest a cyclical reversal, and the first quarter coincides with a better allocation period. It is recommended to focus on it. (2) Avoid blindly chasing up the yuan universe plate in the short term. With the change of Facebook’s name to meta, the popularity of the meta universe concept plate soared for a time. We remind again that meta universe still has a way to go from hardware equipment R & D to adaptive software development to the industrialization of business model. During the sharp rise of the sector in a short time, some stock valuations ushered in “tuyere” opportunities, but they do not have the matching performance cashability. It is recommended to deal with them carefully. (3) Although the new energy sector is expected to maintain a high boom under the industrial logic, the current track congestion is still too high. It may face a large callback risk in the market style switching, and the configuration cost performance is significantly lower than that in 2021. It is recommended to reasonably control the position. (4) It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of financial sectors with relatively low valuations such as banks and insurance. With the Spring Festival approaching, the central bank is expected to strengthen the release of liquidity in the second half of the month. At present, the cost side of banks has improved significantly, which may drive profits to continue to rise. It is recommended to pay attention.
future strategy
Summary of brokerage information: not afraid of market decline, closely follow the main line of steady growth
Break through! Fund managers “turn” are tapping these opportunities
Eight institutions on the market: the disintegration of the group and the reproduction of steady growth are the main line of sustainable development
(source: China Securities Company)
