Today (January 10), the three major A-share indexes opened low. After the shock at the beginning of the session, the stock index experienced a wave of rapid diving, then stabilized and rose. After turning red smoothly, the stock index maintained the shock consolidation pattern. From the disk point of view, A-Shares are keen on the "taking medicine" market, the outbreak of covid-19 detection, traditional Chinese medicine, vaccine, Helicobacter pylori and other sectors, the subject of digital currency, pork concept and lithium extraction from Salt Lake are also prominent, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the sharp position adjustment of institutions at the beginning of the year accelerated the "high cut to low", and the collapse of high-level tracks reappeared. Stable growth is the main line for the first quarter at least. The market consensus on low-level blue chips will be strengthened, the starting point of the market will be delayed in the first half of the year, and the short-term adjustment will bring a better allocation time point.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let's see what themes are available for reference.
[topic I] traditional Chinese medicine
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that the state strongly supports the development of traditional Chinese medicine, inherits and innovates the development of traditional Chinese medicine, which is not only a major event for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, but also an inevitable requirement for building a health development model with Chinese characteristics in which traditional Chinese medicine and Western Medicine complement and develop in a coordinated manner; High quality and innovative development of drugs are the main theme in the next 5-15 years. In 14th Five-Year, the 12 full text of the plan referred to clinical value and clinical urgent need, 12 references to innovative drugs and 11 references to generic drugs. The SFA will further encourage and support the research and development of innovative drugs and generic drugs with clinical value.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities also mentioned that national policies continue to support the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry. The traditional Chinese medicine industry is one of the key industries protected by the state. The relevant national policies actively encourage the development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry and the traditional Chinese medicine decoction piece industry. The relevant regulatory departments of various provinces have also formulated relevant policy provisions to increase support for the traditional Chinese medicine industry and related enterprises. The continuous improvement of the industry supervision system and the support of industry regulations and policies are conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
The agency further analyzed that brand traditional Chinese medicine has the ability to raise prices. Recently, the ex factory prices of Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) Angong Niuhuang Pill and Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) Huoxiang Zhengqi oral liquid have increased, which has aroused the market's attention to the price raising ability of brand traditional Chinese medicine. Due to the price rise of upstream raw materials, brand traditional Chinese medicine has become the main force of price rise. Brand traditional Chinese medicine has both drug and consumption attributes. It has strong independent consumption and superimposed consumption upgrading. It is basically not affected by the cost control of medical insurance. In recent years, due to the limitation of precious traditional Chinese medicine raw materials, the price has increased significantly.
In terms of investment suggestions, we are optimistic about innovative traditional Chinese medicine, brand traditional Chinese medicine with consumption attribute and scarcity attribute, and the transformation of high-quality and low-cost traditional Chinese medicine manufacturers. It is recommended that Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , the in vitro cultivation bezoar business of its affiliated subsidiary continues to rise in both volume and price under the background of shortage of natural bezoar, and the price of its OTC brand Longmu Zhuanggu granules has also been raised. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co.Ltd(600771) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , etc. []
[Topic 2] covid-19 detection concept
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) mentioned that the current development of medical equipment industry is facing opportunities in challenges. China's medical equipment industry has achieved rapid development in the past. The market scale has increased from 480 billion yuan in 2015 to 840 billion yuan in 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of 11.8%. Covid-19 pneumonia has accelerated the regionalization and localization adjustment of the global industrial chain supply chain, and developed countries are increasingly competing for the highland of medical equipment. However, the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform are further promoted, and the integration of manufacturing industry and new generation information technology is accelerated, which brings new opportunities to the development of medical equipment, and there is a huge space for the development of medical equipment industry in the future.
In addition, Shanghai Securities said that the investment main line of the pharmaceutical health sector in 2022 can focus on bottom innovation, global sales, digital medicine and the return of the value of "epidemic beneficiary stocks". We need to focus on enterprises with high policy immunity, compound national population and inclusive medical policies, and independent innovation ability.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that under the basic construction of review, approval and centralized purchase negotiation policies, the reform of payment system is accelerated and the policy closed loop is expected to be formed. Industrial upgrading is deepened, industrial chain thinking is strengthened, innovation Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain and manufacturing upgrading are optimistic, and technological iteration and expansion of consumption are concerned.
In addition, Ping An Securities believes that when the epidemic caused by Omicron strain spreads in many places, the export of covid-19 testing preparation is expected to bring performance flexibility to Chinese enterprises. In late November, the epidemic spread in many places in China, and the detection of covid-19 among key populations has become an important part of epidemic prevention. Some regions even carried out large-scale covid-19 virus detection and screening, which has driven the growth of the demand for detection agents. Overall, the epidemic situation at home and abroad continues, and the sales of covid-19 detection reagent is expected to increase, which may bring performance flexibility to relevant enterprises. []
[Topic 3] Helicobacter pylori concept
According to media reports, recently, the U.S. Department of health and human services released the 15th edition of carcinogen report, including 8 new carcinogens. Including Helicobacter pylori chronic infection as a clear carcinogen, antimony trioxide as a reasonably suspected carcinogen, and six haloacetic acid by-products after disinfection of tap water are considered to have teratogenic and carcinogenic side effects. In particular, Helicobacter pylori is very common in daily life.
In this regard, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) said that according to the investigation and Study on the correlation between Hp infection rate and different environmental factors, Helicobacter pylori (HP) is the most common chronic bacterial infection in humans, accounting for more than 50% of natural bacterial infections in the world, and almost 90% of people in some countries have been infected with this bacterium. People are usually infected at an early age, up to 50% under the age of five.
According to the 2001-2014 national Helicobacter pylori survey, the Helicobacter pylori infection rate in China is between 40% - 90%, with an average of 59%. This bacterial infection first causes chronic gastritis and leads to gastric ulcer and gastric atrophy. In severe cases, it develops into gastric cancer. With the promotion and popularization of early gastric cancer screening in recent years, more and more people have a full understanding of Helicobacter pylori, and the detection, prevention and treatment of Helicobacter pylori will be paid attention to. Proton pump inhibitor (PPI), mainly omeprazole and pantoprazole, is an advanced drug for the treatment of peptic ulcer. It can quickly cure the ulcer by inhibiting gastric acid secretion and clearing Helicobacter pylori.
In terms of investment target, Luoxin Pharmaceuticals Group Stock Co.Ltd(002793) (002793) omeprazole's main product is omeprazole sodium for injection, and pantoprazole sodium enteric coated tablets are one of the company's important products for gastrointestinal diseases.
Lionco Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603669) (603669) digestive chemicals include omeprazole, pantoprazole sodium and lansoprazole, with a complete series in the field of prazole.
[Topic 4] vaccine concept
Guorong securities mentioned that the valuation of the vaccine industry is expected to be reshaped. Due to the long-term and complexity of covid-19, we believe that the valuation method of vaccine enterprises will be reshaped. Although covid-19 vaccine is currently under development, it is still unknown how to control the global epidemic in the future. There are still a large number of countries in Africa with extremely low vaccination rate. If not controlled, there is still the possibility of outgoing mutants. Low and middle-income countries need more cost-effective vaccines, and there is still room for Chinese vaccine enterprises to go to sea.
At present, the valuation of the vaccine industry is low, which the agency believes can be paid attention to. Covid-19 vaccine going to sea and long-term vaccination will continuously expand and prolong the demand. On the supply side, we believe that the first mover vaccine will have more obvious data and trust advantages, and the change of competition pattern is better than expected. Although the decline in fertility has a certain impact on the vaccine market, considering the low penetration of some vaccine varieties in China and the long-term sea space of enterprises, vaccine enterprises have obvious investment value at this stage.
YueKai Securities pointed out that in the face of severe and complex epidemic forms, Israel, the United States and Thailand have planned to implement the fourth dose of covid-19 vaccine. The latest research shows that the effect of two doses of vaccine is weakening, and the third dose is imminent. We believe that the key to epidemic prevention is to popularize the third vaccination and improve the vaccination rate of the third vaccination. Considering that the country has significantly strengthened the vaccination of the third injection recently and superimposed the vaccination expectation of the potential fourth injection, it is recommended that investors pay attention to covid-19 pneumonia epidemic prevention targets, such as Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) . []
(source: China stock market news research center)
