Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : current time point! The investment stage brought by the expected reversal of pig breeding sector has reached
At the current time point, it has reached the investment stage brought by the expected reversal of the pig breeding sector. First, the short-term pig price long and short game. It is expected that the pig price will stop rising before the Spring Festival. Consumption boost: strong demand is one of the factors that may not lead to a sharp decline in pig prices in the short term. Winter is the traditional production period of bacon and sausage, so the demand for pork will be higher than that in other seasons, which may drive the upward price of pigs.
Increase in supply: 1) in terms of the amount of slaughter, due to the early time of the Chinese New Year in 2022, there may be trampling before the festival. As farms and farmers are generally pessimistic about the price of pigs after the year, according to the understanding from Tianfeng agriculture and third-party institutions, there may be stampede out before the year. Moreover, some farms / households are unwilling to hold pigs for the new year, so it may also lead to the possibility of centralized marketing before the year. 2) In the early stage, the pig price rebounded, the weight of the pressed pigs increased, and the pressed farmers anchored the slaughter before the festival. It is expected that there are relatively many reborn pigs in general; 3) Although the frozen meat inventory rate and the high point have been greatly improved, it is still high at present. Moreover, considering that frozen meat stockers may have a strong demand for delivery at the end of the year, it may also lead to downward pressure on pig prices.
Second, in the medium and long term, the bottom of pig price is now, and it is expected to reverse in the middle of this year. The loss of the pig industry as a whole has led to the obvious de industrialization of production capacity, and the de industrialization trend has been determined. This view is confirmed by official data, tripartite data and grass-roots research data of Tianfeng agriculture. 1) According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, as of November 2021, the number of fertile sows in China's fixed-point monitoring continued to decline by 1.2% month on month. In December, the production capacity of fertile sows was still being decontaminated. Compared with the high point of fertile sows in May, it continued to decline for six months, with a cumulative decline of more than 7%. Moreover, in terms of the de commercialization range in November, even when the pig price rose so high from mid to late October to November, the de commercialization range can still reach 1.2%, which reflects that the de commercialization trend in the industry has been determined. According to the research data of Yongyi, Zhuo Chuang and Tianfeng agricultural grassroots, the capacity of the industry has been reduced by more than 10%.
On the subject matter, the focus is [ Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) ] (with high growth elasticity and sufficient capital reserves), [ Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) ] (with cost advantage and steady growth), followed by [ New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) ], [ Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) ], [ Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) ], [ Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) ], [ Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) ], [ Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) ], [COFCO Jiakang], etc. []
AVIC Securities: there is short-term consumption support at the end of the year the yellow feather broiler plate is expected to usher in a business cycle
The supply and demand fundamentals of yellow feather chicken will promote the market cycle upward. 1) On the supply side, the long-term breeding loss in the early stage has significantly reduced the industry's production capacity. According to the China Animal Husbandry Association, in November 2021, the number of parents of yellow feather broilers was 13.4356 million, which has been at the low point of nearly four years. We believe that the overall production of yellow feather broilers in 2022 will be at a low level in recent years. 2) On the demand side, with the bottom of the market for live pigs and other animal proteins, the substitution squeeze of demand for yellow feather broilers will gradually ease and the margin will be better. In addition, the consumption of live poultry suppressed by the epidemic has been fully digested in the past two years, with marginal improvement; In the short term, supported by consumption at the end of the year and boosted by long-term economic recovery, the yellow feather broiler plate is expected to usher in a business cycle. Pay attention to the relevant targets of Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and other plates. []
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities: the pig industry is expected to usher in a new round of cycle reversal ! focus on recommending high-quality industry leaders with safe valuation
According to official data, the speed of capacity removal in the industry has slowed down recently due to the rebound of pig prices, but the trend of capacity removal is still continuing. In 2022, with the deregulation of production capacity, the pig industry is expected to usher in a new round of cycle reversal. We are optimistic about the investment opportunities of breeding industry and seed industry in the medium and long term, and focus on recommending high-quality industry leaders with safe valuation.
In terms of valuation, at present, the market value of most pig enterprises is below the historical average and has a certain margin of safety. Therefore, the sector is optimistic about the rating. Individual stocks mainly recommend Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) with leading cost and Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) with obvious improvement in production indicators. 2) Dynamic insurance: on the eve of the new cycle, the prosperity of pig vaccine was under short-term pressure, but the static PE was at the bottom of history, the safety margin of valuation was high, and the optimistic rating was maintained. Individual stocks mainly recommend Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) with reasonable valuation and significant growth. []
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : the price inflection point of this cycle was exposed and the golden allocation period of pig breeding in the first quarter was grasped
The first quarter is the golden allocation period. The core logic is that the expectation of pig cycle reversal will accelerate, because the market's doubts about time and space will accelerate. In terms of time, the price inflection point of this cycle is expected to be from April to June 2022, and the time window continues to approach; From the perspective of space, the cumulative removal rate of fertile sows has reached about 7%. It is expected to accelerate the removal rate under low pig prices in the first quarter of 2022, and the cumulative removal rate is expected to reach more than 12% by the end of the first quarter of 2022. At the same time, under the joint influence of the three cycles of supply, demand and inventory, the pig price began to decline significantly, driving the clearing of sow production capacity. The market's expectation of the future reversal of the pig cycle will be re strengthened, catalyzing the performance of the sector.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : the intensive release period of seed industry policies is before the Spring Festival, and the sector is expected to usher in policy catalysis
Years ago, pig prices will mainly fluctuate at the bottom, and the rate of capacity removal of fertile sows will be narrowed. However, considering the obvious decline of pig prices after the Spring Festival, the scope of capacity removal may be increased. From the current time node, the market value of some high-quality pig breeding stocks has dropped to a historically low level, and the configuration window has been gradually opened. For the selection of specific targets, it is recommended in turn: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.Ltd(000048) . In addition, New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) are expected to benefit fully.
In addition, we believe that the seed industry, as the chip of agriculture, is an important basis for ensuring China's food security. Under the background of covid-19 pneumonia, the state pays more attention to the seed industry, and the seed industry business environment is expected to be further optimized. In addition, the seed industry policy will be released in the Spring Festival, including the No. 1 central document and the action plan for seed industry revitalization.
In terms of target selection, we mainly recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) with obvious first mover advantage and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with excellent performance of hybrid maize varieties. []
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : most companies have been at or near historical lows the pig sector has long-term investment space
For the pig industry, the pig price rebounded slightly, but the farmers were more willing to sell. In the long run, the over dispersed industry pattern has brought greater integration opportunities. Since the non plague, leading enterprises have accelerated their production capacity layout and gradually increased their market share. In the downward stage of the cycle, the advantage of cost leading enterprises will be easier to win. In the past, the impact of free range farmers was greater. With the increase of scale, the production capacity change of scale field will determine the inflection point of the industry. From the average market value, most companies have been at or close to historical lows, and the pig sector has long-term investment space. We are optimistic about Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) of pig enterprises for a long time. We suggest paying attention to New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , etc.
For poultry, continue to recommend the yellow chicken plate. In terms of yellow chicken, due to the long loss time, the yellow chicken industry has the earliest capacity removal, and the continuous capacity removal makes the current stock volume at a low level in the past three years, and the pace of removal tends to be transmitted from the parent generation field to the ancestral field. The elimination of parental breeding chickens is actually similar to the elimination of fertile sows. Once the stock of breeding chickens decreases, it will take at least three quarters to restore production capacity. Therefore, the fundamentals of yellow chickens in 2022 are worth looking forward to. With the withdrawal of small and medium-sized production capacity, the industry concentration is further improved. We continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities of Huangji plate, and recommend Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) . []
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : transgenic commercialization is gradually approaching seed industry leaders are expected to fully benefit
The commercialization of GM is gradually approaching, and the leader of seed industry is expected to fully benefit. The commercialization of GM is gradually approaching, and we judge the impact as follows: ① the sale of GM corn seeds may begin in the second half of 2023. The revised draft may be approved at the beginning of this year. According to the revised draft, if it is within the scope of suitable planting area, it is only necessary to conduct one-year productive experiment. Therefore, seed production will be carried out as soon as 2023 and sales will begin in the second half of 2023. ② Corn seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. The promotion area of genetically modified maize in China is expected to reach 400-500 million mu. If the gene patent fee of 10 yuan per mu can correspond to a revenue of 4-5 billion yuan, the maize seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. ③ Seed industry leaders are expected to fully benefit. Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) have obtained biosafety certificates for genetically modified maize traits; Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) has high-quality maize germplasm resources; Syngenta is a global agricultural technology giant and the national team of China's seed industry. Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) and Syngenta are expected to stand out in the commercialization process of China's transgenic seed industry. As it will take time for production experiment, variety approval and performance fulfillment, it is expected that the seed industry sector will fluctuate upward. []
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) : pig prices will still be weak and volatile. There may be a short-term opportunity for pig prices around the middle of January
We predict that in early January, pig prices will still be weak and volatile, and there may be a short-term opportunity for pig prices to rise around mid January. On January 1, 2022, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) and Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) signed a strategic cooperation agreement. The strategic cooperation between the two sides mainly involves pig procurement. The original procurement method through "dealers" is gradually transformed into "point-to-point" direct sales, which is conducive to both sides to use their own advantages to open up the industrial chain and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. In the cycle dimension, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the changes of industrial production capacity. In the enterprise dimension, it is recommended to focus on the phased results of enterprise cost reduction and efficiency increase. It is recommended to focus on the breeding head enterprises with obvious advantages in cost control, and then focus on the second-line and small American Standard enterprises with great expected improvement and growth certainty. []
(source: China stock market news research center)
