Blue hydrogen is preferred for chemical industry. Hydrogen can be divided into industrial hydrogen and energy hydrogen according to the application fields. At present, industrial hydrogen is the main consumption. The annual consumption of industrial hydrogen in the world is about 70 million tons, of which refining accounts for about half, and most of the rest is used to produce urea, methanol and various downstream chemicals. At present, about 75% of hydrogen supply comes from high emission grey hydrogen. In order to reduce carbon emission, low emission green hydrogen and blue hydrogen need to be used to replace grey hydrogen in the future. Among them, green hydrogen includes hydrogen produced by photovoltaic wind power electrolysis of water, and blue hydrogen includes hydrogen produced by light hydrocarbon chemical industry. At present, the industrial chain in the field of industrial hydrogen has been highly mature, and there is basically no conversion cost between green hydrogen and blue hydrogen, but all industrial links of transportation and storage in energy hydrogen have yet to be developed. Therefore, we believe that for light hydrocarbon chemical enterprises with a large amount of blue hydrogen, using hydrogen in chemical production is the first choice to realize the value of blue hydrogen as soon as possible;? How to choose hydrogenation chemicals. Blue hydrogen, a by-product of light hydrocarbon chemical industry, has the advantages of low emission and low cost. Its carbon footprint may be lower than the current green hydrogen. The cost is lower than that of traditional coal hydrogen production, and the cost is nearly 20000 yuan / ton lower than that of green hydrogen in the eastern region. Therefore, in the context of carbon neutralization, the project approval of blue hydrogen for chemical production is relatively simple and has great cost advantages. According to the investment scale and chemical output value corresponding to unit hydrogen, propylene oxide, adipic acid, butyl octanol, acrylonitrile, caprolactam and BDO by hppo method are relatively prominent products. Combined with the advantages and disadvantages of the production process and the comprehensive analysis of the prosperity of the products in the next few years, we believe that adipic acid and butyl octanol are relatively better product choices.
We believe that it is a reasonable choice for light hydrocarbon chemical enterprises to use the by-product blue hydrogen in the production of chemicals. According to the comprehensive analysis of unit hydrogen output value, unit hydrogen investment and future prosperity of products, we are more optimistic about adipic acid and butyl octanol, which can produce higher investment returns compared with other products in the future. From the perspective of secondary market investment, we suggest paying attention to satellite Chemistry ( Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) , buy), Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , buy), Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) ( Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , buy), Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ( Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) , not rated), etc. with light hydrocarbon chemical production capacity.
Risk tips
Changes in carbon neutralization policies, breakthroughs in new energy technologies, inconsistent project investment progress, and changes in assumptions affect the calculation results.
