Key investment points
Performance of the chemical sector this week: the overall market composite index fell slightly this week (April 11-april 16). The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 321124, down 1.25% this week, the Shenzhen cost index fell 2.60% and the SME board 100 index fell 3.34%. Chemical stocks this week: the chemical sector fell slightly this week, down 4.25%. The stocks with the highest growth rate include Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) , Ningbo Tianlong Electronics Co.Ltd(603266) , Cnsig Inner Mongolia Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(600328) , Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co.Ltd(600618) , Jiangsu Suyan Jingshen Co.Ltd(603299) , Shandong Cynda Chemical Co.Ltd(603086) , Northern Copper, ST double ring, St red sun and Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) . Driven by the increase of product prices and photovoltaic materials, the prosperity of soda ash industry has increased Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) as an enterprise mainly engaged in soda ash production and sales, it touched the limit on April 14, and the company implemented environmental protection policies. The main business of the wholly-owned subsidiary includes sewage treatment and reuse, which is a green industry. On April 15, auto parts stocks rose strongly. Although the price trend of raw materials is difficult to predict due to the epidemic, the trend of electrification and intelligence in the auto industry remains unchanged Ningbo Tianlong Electronics Co.Ltd(603266) as a company engaged in the development of precision molds and the production and sales of parts, and the company’s joint-stock enterprises are related to the automotive industry, touching the daily limit, it is possible to continue to rise in the future market.
This week’s crude oil market dynamics: market supply shortage concerns remain, and crude oil prices fluctuate and rise. Ice oil distribution closed at US $117.0/barrel (mom + 11.60%); WTI crude oil closed at US $106.95/barrel (mom + 11.37%). Tracking of key chemicals: among the chemicals we are concerned about this week, phosphorus ore (+ 45.12%), diesel (+ 12.41%), glufosinate (+ 10.00%), metallic silicon (+ 6.25%) and coke (+ 6.00%) have the highest price increases. This week, the market price of phosphorus ore has increased. At this stage, mainstream enterprises have suspended the quotation for orders, mainly for their own use, and there are few outward phosphorus ore resources. The supply of phosphorus ore is limited. In addition, the grade of phosphorus ore mined in 2022 is low, the output is tight, and the supply is tight, which drives the price up.
Chemical catalysis can reduce the cost of HMF production and expand the whole industry chain. Derivatives in the future can be expected: 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (5-HMF) is a chemical substance produced by dehydration of glucose or fructose, which can be used to replace petroleum energy. Due to its unique furan ring structure, it is recognized as one of the top ten most valuable bio based platform compounds. With the introduction of relevant favorable policies and the continuous breakthrough of technology, 5-hydroxymethylfurfural is expected to reduce the cost and enter the large-scale production period of 10000 tons.
Main line of Chemical Investment: (1) cycle main line: economic recovery drives the improvement of the profitability of procyclical chemicals. (2) The main line of growth: the trend of technological application and innovation – market expansion and subdivision of growth tracks.
Risk warning: crude oil supply fluctuates sharply; The situation of trade war worsened; The risk of large exchange rate fluctuations; The risk of falling downstream demand.
