Since March, the epidemic has been repeated in many parts of the country. Due to the strict epidemic prevention measures in some areas, the transportation and storage industries are limited, and the number of flights in China has decreased sharply.
Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) ‘s March transportation production briefing showed that 16000 aircraft took off and landed in March, a year-on-year decrease of 54.89%; The passenger throughput was 806100 person times, a year-on-year decrease of 76.86%.
In April, the number of flights across the country fell further. According to public information, the number of the three major flights fell by 80.9% year-on-year from April 1 to 13.
The airport sector of the secondary market is another scene. In the past month, airport stocks have become popular in an all-round way, and most aviation stocks have outperformed the main indexes. The capital game has repaired the performance of the airport sector.
airport sector recovery blocked
At present, the aviation operation is close to the freezing point. According to the ticket sales of Ctrip on April 16, the supply side will gradually recover, and the number of flights from Shanghai to Beijing will rise to 60 classes / day on April 29.
Since April, affected by the epidemic situation in many places in China, the operation of airlines and airports has been at an overall low level. According to the latest data, the number of flights continued to decline in April. The average daily number of flights from April 1 to April 15 was 2662, a year-on-year decrease of 80.09% and 81.32% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) ( Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) . SH) decreased by 90.3% year-on-year, and Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ( Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) . SH) decreased by 81.8% year-on-year.
Compared with March, the decline was also obvious. The data showed that from April 1 to 13, the volume of the three major flights decreased by 48.0% month on month compared with March, Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) decreased by 80.1%, and Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) decreased by 60.7%
Compared with 2019 before the epidemic, the number of three major flights from April 1 to 13 decreased by 79.9% compared with the same period in 2019, Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) decreased by 89.6%, Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) decreased by 77.7%, and the number of flights in the whole industry was about 20% of that in 2019.
In fact, under the situation that the passenger traffic volume continues to be disturbed by the epidemic, China’s transportation industry has recovered significantly from January to February 2022, with the recovery degree reaching the highest level in the same period since 2020, showing relatively strong demand resilience.
Among them, Air China Limited(601111) ( Air China Limited(601111) . SH), China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) ( China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) . SH), China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) ( China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) . SH), Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) 5 major airlines had an average passenger occupancy rate of 67.14% in February, with year-on-year and month on month growth, and the highest level in the same period since 2020.
Taking Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) as an example, in February, the company’s aircraft took off and landed 29000 sorties, an increase of 45.88% year-on-year; The passenger throughput was 2.5573 million person times, a year-on-year increase of 89.42%.
“On the one hand, the Spring Festival holiday from January to February has formed a certain support for the passenger volume, which is dominated by migrant workers and family visits. Since March, affected by the epidemic, the demand has dropped to a relatively low level again. At the same time, the major aviation accidents in that month also have a certain impact on the passenger volume. From the historical data, the peak period of influence is often within one month after the accident.” “From the perspective of the blocked recovery of the industry, it mainly depends on the inflection point of this round of epidemic,” a transportation industry analyst told the first financial reporter.
capital game aviation and airport performance restoration
Judging from the decline of passenger volume data, the current round of epidemic has a great impact on the aviation industry, but the aviation and airport sectors have not fallen sharply, and are even more resistant to decline than many sectors.
Data show that from March 17 to April 17, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Xiamen International Airport Co.Ltd(600897) , Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) , Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) . Among them, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) increased by nearly 9%. In terms of annual growth, the cumulative growth of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) and Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) exceeded 11%, outperforming all major indexes of a shares.
In addition, the average annual increase of the eight airline stocks still recorded a decline, with an average decline of 8.57%. However, in the past month, with the aggravation of the epidemic disturbance, the aviation division sector has rebounded significantly. According to the data, from March 17 to April 17, the eight airline stocks rose by an average of 1.3%, of which Air China Limited(601111) led the rising sector, with a cumulative increase of 11.56%.
The above analysts told reporters that although it is impossible to predict the extent of the multi-point spread of the epidemic in China and the inhibitory effect of the accompanying travel restrictions on demand, the worst time of the aviation industry has passed, and China’s passenger transport is expected to continue to recover with the steady growth of China’s economy.
“We believe that the current market funds regard the aviation industry as an important element under the background of ‘steady growth’, which is the expectation that the passenger volume will continue to reach the highest level in the same period since 2020 after the epidemic is effectively controlled.” The analyst told reporters, “from the current point of view, the main logic of the airport unit is the repair logic. How much repair, how large-scale performance flexibility, and short-term epidemic disturbance will not have a fundamental impact on the main logic of repair.”
The reporter noted that with the gradual disclosure of the annual report of airport stocks, from the fourth quarter of 2021, there are certain differences in the attitude of various institutions towards the aviation department and airport stocks.
In 2021, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) ranked first in China’s airports in terms of passenger throughput. In the fourth quarter of last year, Huaxia Life Insurance Co., Ltd. newly became the sixth largest circulating shareholder of the company, holding 140364 million shares. The portfolio of northbound funds and social security fund 101 has reduced its holdings in a certain proportion.
Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) in terms of institutional holdings reduction and position increase, the range is larger. BEIXIANG capital and Huijin reduced their holdings in different proportions, while the national social security fund 102 portfolio and everyone Life Insurance Co., Ltd. – Universal products increased their holdings.
In terms of Aviation Division, gf’s three products reduced Air China Limited(601111) about 16 million shares in total; While reducing its holdings of Air China Limited(601111) , northbound capital increased its holdings of China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) .
Among the private aviation companies, as of February 22 this year, the products of Harvest Fund, two products of China Europe Fund and northbound funds have been reduced. Among them, the China EU new trend mix increased its positions in the third quarter of 2021 and reduced its positions in the fourth quarter.
