Weekly performance of the sector: this week (2022 / 4 / 112022 / 4 / 15), the mechanical equipment sector fell 4.8%, and the top five sectors were food and beverage / commercial trade / household appliances / transportation / agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, rising respectively:
\u3000\u Shenzhen Sunwin Intelligent Co.Ltd(300044) %/3.1%/1.4%/1.3%/1.1%；
Sector valuation level: the median pettm of machinery sector is 29x, of which the highest valuation is shipbuilding (72.4x) and the lowest valuation is construction machinery (12.9x). From the historical data within 10 years, the P / E ratio of the machinery sector is in the quantile of 13.45%;
Industry highlights: (1) in the first quarter, the power consumption of the whole society increased by 5%, and that of high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 5%; (2) The demand for steel has warmed up, and the price has stabilized and rebounded; (3) National Energy Administration: the number of hydrogenation stations in China ranks first in the world; (4) Under the background of “steady growth”, infrastructure investment reached a new high.
The demand for equipment may be low before high, waiting for steady growth, and the relevant investment will stabilize: Recently, under the influence of the epidemic, the purchase / delivery / orders of some factories have been affected, and the production still depends on inventory in the short term, but the equipment investment has been damaged. (1) We are still confident in the growth of equipment demand: from January / February to early March, the recovery of downstream operating rate can be seen from the recovery of PMI. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume of forklifts increased by 33%, and the cumulative output of metal cutting machine tools / industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) increased by 7% and 30% respectively. The growth of industrial equipment production and sales volume reflects the resilience of downstream demand. However, we expect the data or performance from March to early April to be general, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic. After the recovery of the epidemic, there may be “short-term stock replenishment fluctuation” of industrial equipment in the industry. The superimposed 21h2 base is low. We believe that the cumulative demand for equipment in the whole year is likely to be low before high. (2) The state continues to take care of economic development and wait for steady growth: Recently, the state has continued to introduce a series of steady growth policies, including the central bank’s announcement on April 15 to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points, which will increase its support for the real economy. However, we still need to observe in terms of subdivided areas. On April 15, the national development and Reform Commission said that up to now, 32 fixed asset investment projects have been approved, with a total investment of 520 billion yuan, mainly concentrated in transportation, water conservancy, energy, high technology and other industries; Plan and reserve major projects in advance in the field of infrastructure construction; We will intensify the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and focus on eight key areas, including high-end new materials, major technical equipment, intelligent manufacturing and Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , new energy vehicles, high-end medical equipment and innovative drugs, and agricultural machinery and equipment. Since a certain transmission cycle is required from project initiation to investment, and the investment of private enterprises generally lags behind the improvement of their profits, we believe that the specific fields still need to be clarified, and the construction machinery / traditional energy equipment / new energy equipment with in-depth value has a high probability of becoming the starting point of steady growth. We suggest paying attention to it.
It is recommended to pay attention to:
(1) construction machinery: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ( Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , not rated), Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ( Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , bought), Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ( Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , not rated), Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) ( Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) , not rated), Yantai Eddie Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(603638) ( Yantai Eddie Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(603638) , not rated); (2) Industrial equipment: Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) ( Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) , Unrated), Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) ( Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) , Unrated), Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co.Ltd(000837) ( Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co.Ltd(000837) , Unrated), Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) ( Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) , Unrated), Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) ( Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , Unrated), Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) ( Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) , Unrated); (3) Logistics automation: Nanjing Inform Storage Equipment (Group) Co.Ltd(603066) ( Nanjing Inform Storage Equipment (Group) Co.Ltd(603066) , not rated), Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603611) ( Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603611) , not rated), Cimc Vehicles (Group) Co.Ltd(301039) ( Cimc Vehicles (Group) Co.Ltd(301039) , not rated); (4) Energy equipment:
Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) ( Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Unrated), Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ( Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Unrated), Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) ( Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) , Unrated), Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) ( Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) , Unrated), Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) ( Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) , Unrated), Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing Co.Ltd(688377) ( Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing Co.Ltd(688377) , Unrated); (5) Rail transit equipment: Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) ( Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) , not rated), Guangdong Huatie Tongda High-Speed Railway Equipment Corporation(000976) ( Guangdong Huatie Tongda High-Speed Railway Equipment Corporation(000976) , not rated); (6) Service & Consumption: Shenzhen Anche Technologies Co.Ltd(300572) ( Shenzhen Anche Technologies Co.Ltd(300572) , buy), Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) ( Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) , not rated), Jack Sewing Machine Co.Ltd(603337) ( Jack Sewing Machine Co.Ltd(603337) , not rated), Zhejiang Jiecang Linear Motion Technology Co.Ltd(603583) ( Zhejiang Jiecang Linear Motion Technology Co.Ltd(603583) , not rated), Changzhou Kaidi Electrical Inc(605288) ( Changzhou Kaidi Electrical Inc(605288) , not rated), Hangzhou Youngsun Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603901) ( Hangzhou Youngsun Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603901) , not rated).
Risk tips
The development of the epidemic is less than expected, the macro economy is less than expected, infrastructure investment is less than expected, raw material prices rise, and Global trade conflicts intensify.
