Key investment points
Market space: optical storage high boom track superposition, inverter opens the space for high-speed growth. The shipment volume of photovoltaic inverter is completely positively correlated with the demand for photovoltaic, and the installed capacity of photovoltaic increases rapidly under the background of global carbon neutrality. It is expected that the global installed capacity demand of photovoltaic will reach 391gw by 2025, and the five-year compound growth rate will exceed 20%; Energy storage system is an important basis for building a new power grid. The increase of the penetration rate of wind and solar new energy forces the demand for energy storage system to increase upward. According to cnesa prediction, by the end of 2025, the cumulative application scale of the global electrochemical energy storage market will be 138.6gw, an increase of 10 times in five years, and the CAGR will be 57.3% from 2021 to 2025. Superimposed with the demands of photovoltaic and energy storage, according to the calculation of the global photovoltaic installed capacity of 391gw and energy storage installed capacity of 47.8 GW in 2025, the new market scale of inverter is expected to reach 96.9 billion yuan in 2025, and the market space will grow rapidly.
Technology trend: the permeability of series inverter is improved, and the integration of optical storage becomes a trend. The main reasons why series inverter can gradually replace centralized inverter include wide application scenarios, continuous maturity of technology, rapid decline of cost, prominent advantages of multi-channel MPPT, and higher power generation is favored by power station investors. With the improvement of energy storage permeability, the integrated optical storage inverter is adapted to the optical storage system, which can effectively improve the utilization rate of power generation. The integrated optical storage inverter will become the overall trend of the industry in the future.
Competition pattern: China's photovoltaic inverter has been replaced by the sea, and the second-line enterprises have sprung up. China's photovoltaic industry has come from behind, and the dual leading pattern of Huawei and Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) inverter has been formed. In recent years, the technical maturity of domestic inverters has been continuously improved, and the gap between product quality and performance and overseas inverter manufacturers has been narrowing. With the help of low-cost advantages, the penetration rate of domestic inverters in overseas markets has been accelerating. At present, six of the top ten inverter manufacturers in the world are from China. It is expected that China's inverter market share is expected to increase to 75% by 2025. In addition, the scattered household PV market has created opportunities for second-line inverter enterprises Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) and second-line enterprises have sprung up. With the advent of household storage blue ocean era, the profitability of enterprises with channel, brand and product competitiveness will be further improved in the future.
Investment suggestion: the two high-quality tracks of photovoltaic + energy storage are superimposed. In 2022, the demand for inverters will be rapid and large-scale, and the industry has high demand α Attribute, high performance, digestion of overestimated value, optimistic about the development of inverter links. Recommendation (1) ground power station and large-scale energy storage PCs leader Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , strong viscosity of downstream customers, and rapid growth of inverter and energy storage system shipments under the cooperation of optical storage; (2) Small leaders of series inverter Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , continue to enjoy industry dividends under the improvement of household photovoltaic penetration, and continue to expand business boundaries and enhance business stability. It is suggested to pay attention to the small household storage leader Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , take the lead in seizing the overseas household storage blue ocean market, and jointly build a performance moat for the three businesses of heat exchanger, environmental appliances and inverter.
Risk tip: the downstream demand is less than expected, the price fluctuation and supply risk of raw materials, the risk of trade friction and the risk of intensified market competition.
