In the past month, the Shanghai stock index has fluctuated and consolidated in the range of 31503300 points. We released "how to judge whether the market has bottomed out?" on March 24 It is believed that the market may still repeat in the short term, but the stage similar to the sharp decline in the early stage may have ended, and the subsequent market may gradually enter the bottom grinding stage at present, there are still many internal and external uncertainties. However, considering that the current asset price may have reflected more pessimistic expectations, the cumulative market correction time is long and the adjustment range is large, and the overall market valuation has returned to the historically low position, there is no need to worry too much about the future performance. The market opportunities in the medium and long term dimension are greater than the risks.
structurally, we believe that under the current uncertain environment, on the one hand, we should control the position; On the other hand, in terms of configuration, it is suggested to find a direction with "relative certainty , and pay appropriate attention to the relevant sectors of" steady growth "; For enterprises with better performance that may exceed expectations, the first quarter may be the low point of the whole year from the perspective of year-on-year profit growth; Shareholders and executives increase their holdings of enterprises with good fundamentals. In addition, for the manufacturing growth style with high market attention, there are signs of accelerated adjustment recently. We believe that although there may be a lack of catalytic factors in the short term, some high-quality companies gradually show their long-term configuration value after more early adjustments.
currently focus on three directions:
1) in the "bottom grinding" stage of the market, the stable growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as traditional infrastructure, stable demand for real estate and related industrial chains (real estate, building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.);
2) risks in the manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have been released, but the turnaround lies in the marginal improvement of "stagflation" risk, global liquidity and market sentiment factors;
3) for the middle and lower reaches consumption with many adjustments, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects in 2021, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc.
market return Gu : index closed slightly, and transaction continued to fall
Overseas geopolitical conflicts are still deadlocked, the expectation of US monetary policy is tight, and the 10-year interest rate difference between China and the United States has been upside down for the first time since 2010; China's steady growth policy continues to work, the national Standing Committee releases the signal of continued easing, and the local epidemic is still widely concerned. In this context, the A-share market continued the "bottom grinding" trend, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.2% this week. Market turnover continued to fall slightly, and the average daily turnover shrank to about 900 billion yuan. Northward capital continued to fluctuate, with a small net inflow of 2.88 billion yuan and a cumulative net outflow of 23.5 billion yuan since the beginning of the year. In terms of style, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index with white horse and blue chip fell 1.1% in the week, and the growth enterprise market index and Kechuang 50 fell 4.3% and 5.2% respectively. In terms of industry, the coal sector with strong performance since the beginning of the year continues to lead the market; Partial consumption of food and beverage, commercial retail, beauty makeup and household appliances also performed well; The manufacturing growth sector generally performed poorly, led by power equipment.
Market Outlook: continue to focus on "steady growth" and pay attention to the signals of recent policy meetings
In the past month, the Shanghai stock index has fluctuated and consolidated in the range of 31503300 points. We released "how to judge whether the market has bottomed out?" on March 24 China believes that the short-term market may still be repeated, but the stage similar to the sharp decline in the early stage may have ended, and the subsequent market may gradually enter the bottom grinding stage from the current environment, the internal and external factors are still complex and uncertain in the near future , 1) from the external point of view , the geopolitical situation is still in a stalemate, the international oil price has rebounded recently, and the Brent crude oil price has returned above $110; Under inflationary pressure, the United States and other major developed countries continue to tighten their monetary policies, and the Federal Reserve has accelerated the pace of raising interest rates and shrinking tables. The yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds has recently risen to 2.83%, which is higher than the yield to maturity of China's 10-year Treasury bonds (2.76%) in the same period. The margin may affect the RMB exchange rate and international capital flows 2) internally , the situation of epidemic prevention and control in some parts of China is still very serious. Some areas are under sealing management, which has an impact on the supply chain and logistics end, and the production end and demand end are under downward pressure; Economic growth and the corresponding "steady growth" policy are facing challenges. After the recent easing signal released by the national standing committee, the central bank comprehensively reduced the reserve requirement by 25 basis points over the weekend, which is the first time in the history of the central bank. To sum up, we believe that there are still many uncertainties at home and abroad, but considering that the current asset price may have reflected more pessimistic expectations, the cumulative market correction time is long and the adjustment range is large, the overall market valuation has returned to the historically low position, and there is no need to worry too much about the future performance. The market opportunities in the medium and long term dimension are greater than the risks .
structurally, we believe that under the current uncertain environment, on the one hand, we should control the position; On the other hand, in terms of allocation, it is suggested to find a direction with "relative certainty", and can pay appropriate attention to: 1) the relative performance of the relevant sectors of "steady growth" has continued since December last year. Combined with the current policy development period, we believe that the phased relative performance in relevant fields will continue for some time; 2) At present, it is at the peak of the disclosure of the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022, focusing on enterprises with good performance and may exceed expectations. We sorted out some of the results in the preview of the first quarterly report: which companies are expected to exceed expectations released on April 10 in combination with the opinions of industry analysts. At the same time, it is also suggested to pay appropriate attention to companies that may be the lowest point of the whole year in the first quarter from the perspective of year-on-year profit growth; 3) Recently, with the decline of asset prices, the scale of net reduction of shareholders' and executives' holdings has dropped significantly. Wind statistics show that there have been 350 holdings increase announcements since March, with a total amount of 10.3 billion yuan. It is suggested to pay attention to enterprises with recent holdings of shareholders' and executives and good fundamentals. In addition, for the manufacturing growth style with high market attention, there are signs of accelerated adjustment recently. We believe that although there may be a lack of catalytic factors in the short term, some high-quality companies have experienced more early adjustments, and the long-term configuration value gradually appears .
Recent progress in the following aspects should be noted:
1) economic and financial data release in March 3 month financial data exceeded expectations; The increment of social financing scale in the first quarter hit a record high in a single quarter. In March, CPI rose by 1.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month. Although the impact of geographical conflict on global commodity supply is still ongoing and regional epidemic control is also affected, the impact on the overall price of Chinese consumer goods is temporarily limited under China's supply guarantee measures and logistics guarantee.
2) pay attention to the signal of quarterly economic situation analysis meeting and the implementation of "steady growth" measures the economic data of the first quarter has been gradually disclosed. According to the Convention, after the end of the first quarter, the senior management may analyze the economic situation in mid and late April and determine the tone of follow-up policies according to the situation. Since the beginning of this year, some aspects have made more progress than expected. We should pay attention to the setting of follow-up policies.
3) first quarterly report of listed companies 4 mid to late October is the peak of intensive disclosure of quarterly reports. At present, 540 companies have disclosed the performance forecast of the first quarter, and the proportion of good performance is 74%. We expect that this proportion may fall in the future. At present, the proportion of good performance in finance, nonferrous metals, coal and other sectors is high, and the proportion of good performance in light industry manufacturing, consumer services and other middle and downstream industries is relatively low.
4) local epidemic situation in China : there is still great pressure on epidemic prevention and control in Shanghai, with an average of more than 20000 new infections (including confirmed and asymptomatic infections) per day this week. There are still new cases in many other provinces and cities, the scope of epidemic prevention and control has been expanded, and the logistics and industrial production in the Yangtze River Delta have been affected.
5) capital market reform direction "opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on accelerating the construction of a national unified market" was issued, which proposed to "accelerate the development of a unified capital market", requiring unified supervision, rules and systems, institutional and business innovation, and the development of real estate financing and supply chain finance. Recently, the CSRC and other three departments issued the notice on further supporting the healthy development of listed companies, and put forward 12 measures to further support the development of listed companies and maintain the stability of the capital market.
6) overseas : US inflation hit a new high, and the geopolitical conflict is still in a stalemate. In March, the US CPI increased by 8.5% year-on-year, mainly affected by the rise in energy prices caused by the Russian Ukrainian incident (energy prices rose by 11% month on month in March). 5. In June, there is still a great possibility for the United States to raise interest rates by 50bp each. In the face of the increasing sanctions imposed by the United States and the West on Russia, Russia's anti sanctions actions have escalated.
bank industry suggestions : the main line of steady growth still has allocation value, and pay attention to the growth style according to the progress of the global inflation situation
currently focus on three directions:
1) in the "bottom grinding" stage of the market, the stable growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as traditional infrastructure, stable demand for real estate and related industrial chains (real estate, building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.);
2) risks in the manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have been released, but the turnaround lies in the marginal improvement of "stagflation" risk, global liquidity and market sentiment factors;
3) for the middle and lower reaches consumption with many adjustments, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects in 2021, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc.
recent concerns: 1) performance disclosure of listed companies; 2) Epidemic situation outside China; 3) Overseas geopolitical situation and US monetary policy; 4) Progress in China US relations.
