review: since November 2021, the judgment style has switched to the direction of steady growth such as financial real estate, and the real estate of state-owned enterprises has been the first direction. So far, the excess return has been significant. The weekly report on March 13, 2022 judged that "the most panic time has passed, and the market will usher in a phased repair window".
Outlook: the phased market is still in the state of index shock consolidation and capital stock game. The impact of the supply chain may be mitigated and the investment opportunities after the epidemic situation is improved will be arranged
phased market is still in the state of index shock consolidation and capital stock game 1) the RRR reduction was implemented as scheduled, but the range did not exceed expectations 4 on April 15, the central bank announced the reduction of reserve requirements and released about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds. However, the market has been expected before and is relatively restrained in terms of range, so its impact on the market is relatively limited 2) in the short term, the market risk preference is still weak, and the game characteristics of capital stock are obvious on the one hand, from the perspective of new capital, the issuance scale of various financial products fell sharply, the new issuance scale of partial stock funds decreased by 82% year-on-year in the first quarter, and the increment of absolute income institutions such as insurance and private placement was also limited; On the other hand, from the perspective of capital positions, according to our high-frequency monitoring, although the negative feedback position reduction in the first quarter has eased, the positions of most institutions are still low, and the power of short-term stock position increase is also limited 3) from the perspective of risk appetite, the second quarter is still a turbulent period overseas, including the rise of inflation, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates and shrink tables, the rise of US bond interest rates, the fluctuation of US stocks, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and other external factors will continue to be disturbed. At the same time, it was also suppressed by the Chinese epidemic
it is worth noting that with the promotion of supply guarantee and production resumption, the impact of the supply chain may be gradually alleviated 4 on April 15, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of transport and the people's Bank of China jointly issued a voice to convey the spirit of the special meeting on ensuring smooth logistics and stable industrial chain supply chain chaired by Vice Premier Liu He of the State Council. The drag of the epidemic on the supply chain and economy is expected to ease. At the same time, on the evening of April 16, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of economy and information technology issued the guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation of industrial enterprises returning to work and production, requiring strong, orderly and effective promotion of enterprises returning to work and production, so as to ensure the safety and stability of the industrial chain and supply chain. Among them, the first batch of enterprises to resume production include many operation support and economic support enterprises in addition to key industries such as automobile manufacturing, integrated circuit, equipment manufacturing and biomedicine. The pressure of supply chain impact on automobile, new energy, semiconductor and other sectors is expected to be alleviated.
structure, focusing on three directions 1) layout epidemic improvement + supply chain repair: on the one hand, if the epidemic situation in China is improved in the future, the sectors seriously affected by the epidemic, such as food and beverage, commerce and retail . On the other hand, as China promotes the resumption of production and work to ensure smooth logistics and stable supply chain of the industrial chain, the suppression of supply chain concerns on automobile, new energy, semiconductor and other sectors is also expected to be alleviated 2) high prosperity in the first quarter: quarterly performance exceeding expectations will become an important support for the performance of the sector. At present, among the stocks that disclose the first quarterly report in advance and win in advance, photovoltaic, chemical, Pharmaceutical and other disclosure rates are high, and the overall probability of exceeding expectations is high 3) diffusion and spillover of the real estate sector: after the continuous rise of real estate, the allocation and cost performance of the "steady growth" related sectors, which are similar to the style attribute of real estate, benefit from the expected rise of policy relaxation, and the rise is relatively backward, are prominent. At the same time, the global market is still in a mess of high volatility and low risk appetite. Building materials, construction, banking, securities companies and other sectors have both security and policy driven.
investment strategy: focus on the above three directions in stages. In the medium and long term, we will continue to be optimistic about the five major directions of scientific and technological innovation 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
risk tips: focus on the unexpected return of global capital to the United States and the game between China and the United States.
