[observing policies and discussing the market] the signal significance of this RRR reduction: in the case of the rapid narrowing or even upside down of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, this RRR reduction reflects that China’s monetary policy is still dominated by China, and the pressure of RMB exchange rate and capital outflow from the north have survived the fastest narrowing stage of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, leaving room for subsequent policy adjustment. In March, social finance comprehensively exceeded expectations, the growth rate of new social finance increased significantly by more than 19%, and the medium and long-term financing growth rate became positive, which is an important condition for the previous bottoms of a shares. With the steady growth force and the further improvement of social finance growth rate, China’s economy is expected to gradually come out of the trough in the near future the worst stage of the impact of the epidemic on the industrial chain may have passed: at present, with the peak trend of the epidemic in some areas, and the recent arrangements for the resumption of work and production of relevant enterprises have been released, the worst time of the impact on the industrial chain may have passed investment response: steady growth is still the core of the industry selected by the bank, and the first choice is to speed up the new construction and benefit sectors, such as cement, industrial metals, steel and chemical industry. The real estate policy further emphasizes the healthy cycle, and the industry can pay attention to household and consumption of building materials in case of reversal of difficulties. The new infrastructure is still in high prosperity. We can pay attention to photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage and lithium battery in addition, the stock prices of relevant industrial chains affected by the epidemic in some regions in the early stage have decreased significantly. With the peak trend of the epidemic in some regions and the arrangement of resumption of work and production, the stock prices in relevant fields may be repaired.
[resumption of trading · internal view] most A-share market indexes showed a downward trend this week, mainly due to , 1) recently, the pressure on epidemic control in some parts of China has increased significantly, and investors are worried about the negative impact on the economy; 2) The joint impact of the epidemic on the industrial chain is emerging; 3) US stocks fell continuously due to the aggressive contraction policy of the Federal Reserve;
[meso · boom] the year-on-year growth of global semiconductor sales expanded in February, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high growth rate in March 2 in February, the year-on-year growth of global semiconductor sales expanded, the year-on-year growth of sales in the Americas, Europe, Japan and the Asia Pacific region expanded, and the year-on-year growth of sales in China narrowed. In March, the year-on-year growth rate of IC import and export decreased; The revenue of Taiwan stock IC design, IC manufacturing, memory, silicon wafer, PCB, led and other manufacturers continued to rise year-on-year, some growth narrowed, and the revenue of some IC manufacturing fields, some panel and some lens manufacturers decreased year-on-year. In March, the automobile production and sales increased month on month, the production and sales decreased year on year, the production and sales of passenger cars decreased slightly year on year, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to maintain high-speed growth year on year. In March, the sales volume of excavators in major enterprises decreased year-on-year, and the sales of heavy trucks still did not improve.
[capital · numerous and few] increased the position of new energy against the trend, and ETF made a large net purchase northward capital inflow of 2.88 billion yuan this week; The total net outflow of financing funds in the first four trading days was 16.32 billion yuan; 1.33 billion partial equity public funds were newly established, down 1.17 billion from the previous period; The net subscription of ETF corresponds to a net inflow of 18.76 billion yuan. In terms of industry preference, the higher net purchase scale of northbound capital is electronics, electrical equipment, real estate, etc; Net purchase of financing funds for chemical industry, steel, commercial trade, etc; There are more applications for information technology ETFs and more redemptions for pharmaceutical ETFs. The scale of net reduction of important shareholders is reduced; It is planned to increase the scale of reduction.
[theme · wind direction] this week’s industrial observation – the industrial Internet work plan in 2022 was issued, focusing on the accelerated implementation of digital infrastructure 4 on April 13, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued a notice on printing and distributing the 2022 work plan of the industrial Internet special working group. The industrial Internet has gradually entered the stage of scale promotion, and is expected to become another important direction of the digital economy after digital RMB and digital computing in the East and the west, focusing on data centers, network security, etc.
[data · valuation] the valuation level of all A-Shares this week decreased by , PE (TTM) decreased by 0.3x to 14.2x, which is in the quantile of 33.2% of the historical valuation level. The valuation of the sector rose and fell, among which the valuation of the mining sector rose more, and the food and beverage sector fell significantly.
risk tip: the policy strength is less than expected, and the US dollar has appreciated significantly
