Recently, a number of Baijiu enterprises have been pleased with the quarterly reports, but the two quarter will continue to grow. Reporters learned that the current terminal demand shrink, Baijiu and other high-end liquor promotions Moutai price cuts, while the middle end liquor seems to be cost-effective. In addition, Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and others have announced the expansion of production this year. Industry analysis, the Baijiu industry is in the trend of differentiation, although the dynamic selling rate is declining, but the famous liquor still keeps a relatively high growth rate.
Since the end of March, Baijiu listed companies have released the first quarter results. With the recent outbreak of the epidemic, restricted consumption in some regions, can the Baijiu market continue to grow in the two quarter?
The financial Associated Press reporter recently visited several terminals and learned that the current terminal demand is shrinking, and downstream dealers are cautious in taking goods; In terms of price, recently, the rare Maotai and the year of the tiger animal Maotai have been reduced continuously, and Shangchao Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) also has a discount. Relatively speaking, mid-range wines have been more popular recently.
after the Spring Festival, the dynamic sales slow down
The Spring Festival in the year of the tiger is too early to lead to the peak season, and the leading liquor enterprises generally increased in the first quarter Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ( Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . SH) it is estimated that Q1 will achieve a net profit of 16.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19% The net profit is expected to increase by about 7 billion on a year-on-year basis Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ( Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) . SZ) expects to achieve a net profit of 465 million yuan from January to February, a year-on-year increase of 130%.
Recently, the financial Associated Press reporter visited the channel and learned that the terminal mobile sales has slowed down significantly recently. A high-end liquor dealer told the financial Associated Press: "the shipment volume of this year's Spring Festival increased by about 10% over last year, but after the outbreak this year, dealers became very cautious about taking goods out of concerns about capital turnover.".
Specialty stores also show a similar trend. A person from a liquor store told the financial associated press on April 12: "in early April, it was greatly affected by the epidemic, and the recent sales volume decreased compared with the same period in previous years.".
In terms of direct marketing channels, the dynamic sales may be slower. Recently, the reporter of the financial Associated Press visited a number of large supermarkets and found that some Huangtan Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and hongtan Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) are still digesting the products produced in the second quarter of 2021P align = "center" figure source: photographed by the financial Associated Press, high-end liquor in a chain supermarket in Changsha was promoted and reduced in price
In terms of price, the survey data of "today's wine price" showed that from April 3 to 13, the price of Maotai's rare Maotai and the year of the tiger animal Maotai fell, of which the wholesale reference price of the rare Maotai fell from 5880 yuan / bottle to 4750 yuan / bottle, and the year of the tiger animal Maotai fell from 3900 yuan / bottle to 3720 yuan / bottle in the same period. According to the analysis of insiders, after the launch of Maotai's new e-commerce platform, the prices of several liquor products have decreased, and Maotai has achieved initial results in stabilizing supply and controlling prices.
According to the "today's wine price", the rated price of 500ml Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (eighth generation) is 970 yuan / bottle. A dealer in Changsha told the financial associated press that the actual price of the product is slightly higher, "generally 980990 yuan / bottle".
At the terminal, the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) raised the suggested retail price to 1499 yuan / bottle. In tmall Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) official flagship store, the estimated price of the product after discount is 1220 yuan / bottle. The reporter saw in a RT Mart supermarket that the promotional price of the product is 1199 yuan / bottleP align = "center" source: Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) tmall flagship store, photographed by the reporter of the associated press of Finance in a chain supermarket in Changsha
Cai Xuefei, Baijiu Baijiu, an analyst and general manager of the liquor industry, told the financial union reporters that "the Baijiu industry has many price systems, and now it is in the off-season of liquor sales. This promotion is very normal. The promotion of the new year will be even greater. As long as the price range is within 1000 yuan, there will be no problem."
mid range wine highlights cost performance? Disputed expansion
According to the above, the sales volume of Baijiu liquor is better because of the shrinking demand. "The best sales volume here is Xiangjiao middle end wine, with more than 400 bottles. About 30 or 40 pieces are shipped a month, and the sales proportion can account for one third. I think the price is more appropriate, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) after all, the price is thousands.".
Since this year, most liquor enterprises have predicted that the industry will improve and expand production one after another. Since the beginning of the year, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ( Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . SZ), Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) ( Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . SH), Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) has announced the production expansion plan, of which Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) has a total investment of 9.102 billion yuan. After the completion of the project, the annual output of original wine will be increased by 51000 tons and the energy storage of original wine will be increased by 134400 tons.
Many unlisted companies have also announced plans to expand their production. It is reported that Hunan Xiangjiao wine industry is building a 20000 ton sauce wine expansion project, of which the first 10000 ton production line is planned to be completed and put into operation this year. In addition, Langjiu, Xijiu and Jinsha wine industry are promoting the expansion of production.
Is there a contradiction between the expansion of liquor enterprises and the slowdown of terminal movable sales? Cai Xuefei told the associated press that although the dynamic sales rate declined, the famous wine still maintained a high growth rate. "The whole Baijiu industry is actually in the trend of differentiation. The impact of the epidemic on alcohol consumption scenarios is quite obvious, and the demand for alcohol is compressed. In this case, consumers will first choose famous brands with brand names."
In fact, after Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) announced the expansion, some investors questioned the company's capacity digestion, The company replied: "the sales of the Baijiu flavor liquor consumed by the company last year is more than that of last year's actual production. The consumption of high-end and high quality liquor is still increasing. At the same time, the new capacity project is still implemented step by step, and the new Luzhou flavor liquor will not be oversupplied. The elegant elegant Maotai liquor has a very high price performance ratio and the probability will not sell.
