Under the guidance of the double carbon goal, the wind power industry has ushered in unprecedented new opportunities for development. China's wind power industry has completed the process from following to leading and surpassing. China has established a mature industrial chain covering wind power development and construction, equipment manufacturing, technology R & D, testing and certification and supporting services.
What role will wind power play in the process of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization? To shoulder the burden of the main energy in the future, what else should wind power focus on? Has wind power got rid of its dependence on subsidies and entered the era of parity? How to arrange the distribution and storage of wind power? How to realize the integration of wind power and rural environment?
In response to the above problems, the reporter of Huaxia times conducted an exclusive interview with Qin Haiyan, Secretary General of the wind energy professional committee of China Renewable Energy Society, to deeply explore the new pattern of the wind energy industry. Qin Haiyan said that there is no "ceiling" in China's wind power resources, and the wind power industry has the conditions to "play a major role" in the implementation of the dual carbon goal. It can be predicted that in the next 3-5 years, the power generation capacity of the same wind farm will increase by about 3 times, and the cost of kwh power can be reduced by another half.
Huaxia times : wind power is a clean energy with zero carbon emission. What role will it play in the process of realizing "carbon peak and carbon neutralization" in China?
qinhaiyan : implement the double carbon goal, power system first, and wind power will play the role of the main force. At present, the energy industry accounts for about 88% of China's total carbon dioxide emissions, while the power industry accounts for about 41% of the carbon dioxide emissions of the energy industry. Therefore, in order to achieve the goal of carbon neutralization, the power system must take the lead in decarbonization. In the absence of disruptive new technologies, power system decarbonization will mainly rely on wind power and photovoltaic power generation. At the same time, since the cost of wind power has been equal to or even more economical than that of traditional fossil energy power generation, and has the potential to further reduce the cost, the large-scale application of wind power will reduce the energy consumption cost of the whole society and realize a more economical energy transformation.
China's wind power industry has the conditions to "play a major role" in the implementation of the dual carbon goal. In terms of resources, the latest evaluation results show that the exploitable amount of wind energy resources and technologies at a height of 140 meters on land in China exceeds 5.1 billion kw, and the exploitable potential of offshore wind energy resources and technologies exceeds 3.5 billion kw. There is no "ceiling" in the amount of resources. At the technical level, China has the independent R & D and design capacity of large megawatt wind power units, and a wealth of models can well meet the development needs of various environmental and wind conditions such as low wind speed, high altitude, low temperature and high temperature. In terms of industrial chain, China has established a mature industrial chain covering wind power development and construction, equipment manufacturing, technology research and development, testing and certification and supporting services. It is the world's largest wind power equipment manufacturing base. While meeting the Chinese market, wind power equipment is exported to more than 30 countries. The output of wind turbines accounts for more than 2 / 3 of the world, including generators, hubs, frames, blades, gearboxes The output of bearings accounts for 60% - 70% of the world. In terms of cost, in the past 30 years, with the dual promotion of technological innovation and scale effect, the price of wind power equipment has been reduced by more than 70%, and the development cost of wind farm has been reduced by nearly 50%. Wind power has become a power source with mature technology and obvious cost advantage.
Huaxia times : how to view the development prospect of wind power industry? To shoulder the burden of the main energy in the future, what else should wind power focus on?
qinhaiyan : with the proposal of the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, the wind power industry has ushered in a historic period of development opportunities. During the "14th five year plan" period, the development scale of wind power will increase by more than 250 million KW, and the average annual new installed capacity will not be less than 50 million KW, which is the minimum requirement to achieve the dual carbon goal. Among them, the "Three North" market needs to increase the installed capacity of wind power by 100125 million KW, with an average annual increase of 20-25 million KW; The installed capacity of offshore wind power needs to be increased by 40-80 million KW, with an average annual increase of 8-16 million KW; The central and Southeast markets need to increase the installed capacity of wind power by 75-100 million KW, with an average annual increase of 15-20 million KW. By 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China will reach 580 million KW, 1 billion kw in 2030 and at least 3 billion kw in 2060.
To fully grasp the opportunities of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, the wind power industry still needs to focus on the following work:
First, expand the development scale of wind power according to local conditions. Combining the development conditions of different regions and arranging the wind power development mode according to local conditions is the foothold to improve the scale and quality of wind power development during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The "Three North" region has large reserves of wind energy resources, high wind speed, and the cost of kwh power is even lower than that of conventional thermal power, which is suitable for large-scale centralized development. In the face of larger installed capacity and relying on UHV external transmission to solve the problem of wind power consumption, on the premise of safe operation, gradually reducing the power generation of thermal power plants, especially self owned power plants, can have an immediate effect on solving the problem of large-scale wind power consumption. Wind power will be a clean and cheap scarce resource, which can attract industries with high demand for low-cost and clean power to transfer to the "Three North" region, and turn wind power with zero carbon economy into a "value highland" of industrial enterprises. Local development and nearby utilization of wind energy resources in central and Southeast China is the key to realize "electricity comes from around" and drive rural revitalization.
Second, expand application scenarios to benefit more subjects. For wind power enterprises, the future development opportunities are contained in a wider range of application scenarios. In areas rich in new energy such as wind power, we should establish extensive cooperative relations with local governments, industrial parks, high energy consuming industries and other industries, build a zero carbon power base, and attract export industrial parks, high energy carrying industrial zones, manufacturing, data and other industries to inland areas with highly competitive green power, which can not only effectively alleviate the pressure of emission reduction in central and eastern China, but also promote industrial upgrading in inland areas, We will raise the level of economic development and help revitalize the northeast and develop the West. In the central and Eastern load center area, combined with the green consumption policy, promote the construction of 100% renewable energy demonstration cities, build green parks, green factories, green products and green communities, provide resources and opportunities for zero carbon development for local pillar industries, and ensure stable economic growth.
Third, accelerate technological innovation and continuously improve the economy of wind power. In order to further improve efficiency and reduce costs, there are still shortcomings in the wind power industry chain that need to be supplemented, and the industry needs to tackle key and common technologies. It includes the large-scale, customized and intelligent development of wind turbines, the continuous breakthrough of high-power gearbox, 100m blade and other component technologies, the research and development of offshore wind power frontier technology represented by floating, the research and development and application of high-performance alternative materials, the professional research and development of onshore and offshore engineering equipment, and the comprehensive application technology innovation of multi energy complementarity in new power systems. In particular, the collaborative innovation of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and the three networks integration innovation of the external industry around the power network, information network and transportation network are the next key directions.
Fourth, improve the flexibility of the power grid and support the large-scale grid connection of new energy. Building a new power system with new energy as the main body means that the proportion of wind and light in the future power system will be higher than 80%, or even 100%, which puts forward higher requirements for the flexibility of the power system.
On the one hand, it is necessary to improve the power transmission and consumption capacity of renewable energy across provinces and regions through the construction and optimization of export channels, make full use of existing resources, improve the consumption capacity of renewable energy at a lower cost, promote the expansion of development scale in renewable energy rich areas, and meet the power use demand of energy intensive areas. On the other hand, we should speed up the establishment of new power systems and improve the flexibility of power grids through the application of various energy storage methods. In addition, a market-oriented mechanism should be established to meet the needs of large-scale grid connection of new energy. With the help of energy Internet technology, build the next generation of intelligent power system, price on demand, and promote the return of power to its commodity attribute, from the previous adjustment of supply according to demand to "dance with the wind" and "move with the light".
Huaxia times : last year was the last year of China's offshore wind power subsidy, and the onshore subsidy ended in 2020. From the situation after the cancellation of the subsidy, have enterprises got rid of the subsidy dependence at present? Can we say that the era of wind power parity has come?
qinhaiyan : China's wind power does not have the conditions for full parity Internet access. Driven by large-scale development and technological progress, the cost of onshore wind power per kilowatt hour in China decreased by 40% from 2010 to 2020. At present, new wind power projects in most regions can be connected to the Internet at parity. Over the same period, the cost of offshore wind power in China decreased by nearly 53%, and it is expected to realize parity access in the next three years. At present, Guangdong, Shandong and Zhejiang have made clear the "provincial subsidy" policy for offshore wind power, which will boost the orderly trend of offshore wind power to affordable Internet access. This means that China's wind power will go online at parity during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
In the future, there is still a lot of room to improve the economy of wind power in China. The main contribution of the decline in the cost of wind power comes from the improvement of power generation capacity and efficiency, not just the decline in cost. Relying on the progress of advanced control technology and material science, in the past decade, the diameter of wind turbine rotor has continuously broken through and increased to twice the original. Under the same wind conditions, the power generation capacity has increased to about three times. Even if the unit kilowatt cost of wind farm has not decreased much, the kilowatt cost can also be reduced to 50% of the original. It is estimated that the wind power generation capacity of the latest wind farm with a blade diameter of about 200m can be reduced by about three times in the next five years, and the power generation cost of the new wind farm can be increased by about three times.
Huaxia times : wind power is intermittent, and energy storage is a major development trend in the future. The state has also issued documents to support wind power matching and energy storage for many times, but the current price of energy storage is high, and the matching and storage will cause the project investment cost to be too high, resulting in the enterprise unable to calculate the account. How to solve this problem?
qinhaiyan : equipped with energy storage, it can really cut peak and fill valley, improve power quality and act as standby power supply in the power system, which will improve the fluctuation and rapid response of output to a certain extent. However, at present, some local governments require new energy development enterprises to allocate energy storage in a certain proportion according to the installed capacity of the project in the form of coercion or disguised coercion, which is unfair and uneconomical.
At present, energy storage is still not the most cost-effective choice for peak shaving. The flexibility of traditional power supply and a large amount of flexibility on the demand side in China's power system are far from being fully utilized.
In response to the requirements of some local governments to force wind power projects to add energy storage devices, all localities shall be prohibited from ordering wind power and other new energy projects to add energy storage devices in accordance with the law and regulations, and it is prohibited to require new energy projects to add energy storage devices in disguised form through priority approval. We should establish the auxiliary service market mechanism, find the regulation service with the best cost performance for the power system through market-oriented means, and reasonably channel the service cost to the user side.
Huaxia times : how to solve the noise and other problems caused by wind power close to residential areas? How to achieve integration with rural environment?
qinhaiyan : the existing measures and technical means can effectively solve the problem of wind power noise. All wind power projects will be subject to strict environmental impact assessment before construction. The noise requirements shall comply with the provisions of relevant international and national standards, and the general practice in the industry is that the wind farm is at least 500 meters away from the residential area. Therefore, the noise generated during the operation of wind turbines usually will not cause significant interference to the production and life of the surrounding people. At the same time, the existing technical means such as low-noise aerodynamic shape design, adding sawtooth tail edge structure and optimizing operation control strategy can greatly reduce the noise impact during the operation of wind turbine.
In order to realize the harmony between the development of wind power projects and the ecological environment, on the one hand, wind power enterprises will carry out scientific planning and construction, and take careful measures for soil and water conservation and vegetation restoration; On the other hand, it is also exploring the use of deindustrialization design to integrate the local characteristic humanistic elements into the project design. Many examples show that through these methods, wind power projects can not only integrate with the rural environment, but also make the surrounding more beautiful.
