Aviation and tourism are the industries most affected by the epidemic, but these two industries are industries with very "rigid" market demand. There is often a saying of "retaliation for consumption" when the epidemic eases. Judging from the development of the global epidemic and the ups and downs of the industry, the aviation industry is the most flexible industry, and the share prices of American airlines have repeatedly become the vanguard of the rebound. Some analysts believe that at present, China's prevention and control will become more normalized, and some industries hardest hit by the epidemic are expected to reverse the bottom. In the future, with the gradual calm of the global epidemic and the gradual normalization of China's prevention and control, the industries previously hit by the epidemic will also reflect sufficient flexibility. It is suggested that investors choose to allocate civil aviation, tourism hotels and other sectors during the shock process.
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civil aviation: change for the better is in the pipeline
Affected by the recent rebound of the local epidemic and industrial safety accidents, the daily travel times of airlines have been close to the worst period of the epidemic in 2020. In the first year of the epidemic, some small and medium-sized private airlines with weak anti risk ability were either transferred from private capital holding to local state-owned assets holding, or taken over by new shareholders. Under the impact of the new round of epidemic rebound, the balance sheet of the whole industry is still suffering, the possibility of industry mergers and acquisitions continues to increase, and a new round of changes is already in the process of preparation.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) analyst licensing pointed out that with the evolution of the virus itself and the publication of the New Coronavirus treatment plan (trial version ninth), China's epidemic will enter the second half of this year, and this year is expected to usher in the long-term starting point of the aviation industry. Looking forward to the future, the certainty brought by the valuation and repair logic of the airport aviation sector will lead the industry. At the same time, we are also optimistic about the long-term investment value of the airport sector in the post epidemic era and the supply and demand elasticity of the aviation sector in the upward phase of the cycle, but the inflection point still needs to wait patiently.
Since the beginning of 2020, the overall recovery of civil aviation passenger transport demand has been relatively slow. Due to the factors such as the rise of aviation fuel price and more prevention and control expenses, the civil aviation industry is facing great profit pressure. For the difficulties existing in the civil aviation industry, 14 departments including the national development and Reform Commission issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry this year, and put forward five relief and support policies for the civil aviation industry. The policy proposes that the civil aviation industry is a capital intensive, highly leveraged and highly indebted industry. The negative impact of the epidemic on the civil aviation industry has increased the difficulty of enterprise financing and capital turnover. Suspending the advance payment of value-added tax in the air transport industry, coordinating the transfer payment funds and the financial resources of local governments to support the epidemic prevention and control of the civil aviation industry, and expanding the credit debt financing channels of civil aviation enterprises will play a positive role in supplementing the cash flow of the civil aviation industry and helping the civil aviation industry through difficult times.
It can be seen that the 14th five year plan of civil aviation defines 20212022 as recovery period and savings period, and 20232025 as growth period and release period. The rescue policy will help the civil aviation industry tide over the trough cycle. With the gradual improvement of the global epidemic and the orderly relaxation of prevention and control policies, the demand and performance of the industry are expected to accelerate the rebound.
In the short term, the repeated epidemic has led to a continuous decline in the implementation of civil aviation flights. We should pay attention to the improvement of the supply and demand pattern of the industry after the epidemic is alleviated. Sun Yan, an analyst at Anxin securities, said that from the demand side, it is impacted by the epidemic in the short term. With the promotion of acupuncture and specific drugs and the promotion of scientific epidemic prevention, the suppressed travel demand will gradually recover. On the supply side, the introduction of transport capacity of airlines is slow, the growth of transport capacity has been strictly controlled in the past two years, and the low growth of supply in the medium term has high certainty. In addition, with the opening of overseas border lines, international flights have gradually resumed, waiting for the improvement of China's epidemic situation and a clear growth trend of international passenger transport demand.
The epidemic caused the civil aviation industry to fall to the bottom, but under the expected improvement, the bottom recovery space is also very broad Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) analyst Cheng Xinxing pointed out that with the continuous promotion of covid-19 vaccine and treatment technology, the demand for air passenger transport will gradually recover in the next two years, and the revaluation of the value of relevant companies is a deterministic event. We maintain the "overweight" rating of the industry and suggest investors pay attention to Air China Limited(601111) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) , etc.
potential stock selection
\u3000\u3000 Air China Limited(601111) 60111 7
In the second quarter, the company benefited from the improvement of the prevention and control situation and the rapid recovery of demand. In the summer transportation peak season in the third quarter, due to the impact of the epidemic, the recovery process of the industry was greatly disturbed. In the off-season of the industry in the fourth quarter, due to the continuous impact of the epidemic and the strict epidemic prevention measures in Beijing, the ask of the company was less than 50% of the level in the same period in 2019. Driven by the recovery of Chinese business, Air China rasK increased by 7.13% year-on-year to 88.41% in the same period in 2019 Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) pointed out that as the only flag carrier in China, Air China sits at the first National Capital International Airport and has the best time resources and route network. Affected by the recent rebound of local epidemic and industrial safety accidents, the demand for civil aviation has been restrained, and the prosperity of the industry is temporarily low. The company is expected to fully benefit from the upward stage of the cycle.
\u3000\u3000 Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) 60102 7
The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 35 million yuan to 52 million yuan in 2021, turning losses into profits over the same period of last year. China's aviation demand recovered in 2021, and the company quickly released production capacity by virtue of its competitive advantage. In 2021, the passenger seating rate of the company recovered to more than 80%, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 14.02% in passenger turnover in 2021 and 87% in the same period in 2019 Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that in 2021, the company relied on low-cost advantages to ensure the rapid recovery of ask, leading the companies in the same industry. At the same time, the company made a slight profit under the pressure of rising oil prices and operating leases, which continued to prove the company's market competitiveness. In addition, the company continues to maintain a positive expansion strategy. With the recovery of aviation demand in the future, the profitability of the company will recover rapidly, and the growth will be gradually reflected.
\u3000\u3000 China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115)
The company's "one-step" plan is another important innovation of product and service awareness of civil aviation. For a long time, due to high front-end costs and cumbersome processes, aviation and ground travel modes are at a competitive disadvantage in the field of medium and short distance. Reducing unnecessary chains and making aviation products closer to modern life is an important way to optimize the long-term competitiveness of civil aviation Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) pointed out that during the "14th five year plan" period, the growth rate of aircraft fleet in the aviation industry is expected to be less than 6%, and there is room for upward improvement in the relationship between supply and demand in 2022. At the same time, if the international line is liberalized at the end of 2022, the daily utilization rate of aircraft will be effectively improved and the turnover efficiency will be greatly improved. At that time, the profitability of the airline company will have great room for improvement China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) leads the industry in civil aviation product innovation. We believe that the industry can see an inflection point in operation in 2022 and are optimistic about the improvement of the company's performance flexibility after price increase.
\u3000\u3000 60 Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) 0029
The ask of the company in 2021 decreased by 0.37% compared with the same period in 2020 and 38.0% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, the passenger transport demand in China recovered well. The ask of Chinese routes in 2021 increased by 5.9% compared with the same period in 2020 and recovered to 87% in the same period in 2019. The supply and demand of overseas airlines is still low. In addition, the company's revenue per passenger kilometer in 2021 was 0.4946 yuan, an increase of 7.60% over the same period in 2020 and 1.7% over the same period in 2019 Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that the epidemic situation outside China has been repeated, and the recovery of air passenger demand has been negatively impacted. We believe that the growth logic and location advantages of head airlines have not fundamentally changed due to the epidemic situation. With the continuous advancement of covid-19 vaccine and treatment technology, the demand for air passenger transport will gradually recover, and the revaluation of the company's value is a deterministic event.
\u3000\u3000 Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885)
Although the company continued to lose money in 2021, it decreased significantly year-on-year. The company's ask in 2021 increased by 15.3% compared with the same period in 2020, and the ask of Chinese routes increased by 19.7% compared with the same period in 2020 and 5.5% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, China's passenger transport demand recovered well Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that the company plans to increase 3.3 billion yuan for the introduction of aircraft and standby engine projects and the repayment of bank loans. After the funds raised this time are in place, the company's transportation capacity and business scale will be effectively improved, the airline operation capacity will be expanded, and the company's operating revenue and profitability will be further improved. Repeated outbreaks outside China, the recovery of air passenger transport demand is negatively impacted, and the company's short-term performance is under pressure. However, with the continuous advancement of covid-19 vaccine and treatment technology, the demand for air passenger transport will gradually recover, and the company will return to the growth track.
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Tourist Hotels: the industry is strongly supported by policies
Although the tourism and hotel sector continued to be under pressure in the first quarter, the pace of industry recovery continued with the expected improvement. At the news level, the Ministry of culture and tourism held a press conference in the first quarter, and a number of measures promoted the recovery of tourism in the second quarter. Firstly, the opinions on promoting the revitalization of rural areas enabled by cultural industry has been issued, which has promoted the development of cultural industry and tourism in rural areas, expanded consumers' optional tourism modes and destinations, and provided a new direction for the development of China's tourism industry; Secondly, this year, the establishment of a list of China's special tourism resources will be carried out to classify high-quality tourism resources, which will help promote the maintenance and updating of tourism resources in various scenic spots and enhance their attraction to tourists; Finally, in May this year, all parts of the country will organize China Tourism Day in an orderly manner to stimulate residents' Tourism enthusiasm and promote the recovery of tourism through the issuance of cultural and tourism consumption vouchers, tourism enterprise promotion and other tourism benefit measures.
At the same time, expanding domestic consumption also stimulates the tourism market to a certain extent. It can be seen that this year's government work report gives clear policy guidelines for promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand, which is mainly reflected in financial support. The tax rebate and reduction is 2.5 trillion yuan, of which 1 trillion yuan is the continuation of the individual income tax reduction and exemption policy in 2021. With the increase of disposable income and the decline of the impact of the epidemic on tourism, Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) analyst Liu Yang predicts that the recovery intensity of tourism this year will be significantly stronger than that of last year, and the significant multiplier effect will form an effective support for the expansion of domestic demand. Multiplier effect makes tourism play a unique role in stimulating domestic demand. Under the new development pattern of double circulation, the multiplier effect of tourism makes it play an important role in promoting domestic demand.
Wei Hongmei, an analyst at Dongguan securities, pointed out that the China Tourism Research Institute expects that in the first quarter, China's tourism revenue and China's tourism revenue will decrease by 5% and 13% year-on-year respectively, and the consumer service industry will be under pressure in the short term. Yunnan, Zhejiang, Heilongjiang and other provinces have successively launched relief policies and relevant measures to support the development of cultural and tourism industry, and the implementation of assistance policies. In the long run, the epidemic is controlled and the expectation of certainty is high.
From the perspective of industry segments, AVIC securities analyst Pei Yifan pointed out that with the stability of epidemic prevention and control, the pace of industry recovery is expected to accelerate, which is good for the leading enterprises in the segment track. In terms of the tourism sector, the recovery of China's tourism industry will focus on short-distance, customized and leisure tourism, and is optimistic about high-quality scenic spots and enterprises with perfect tourism industry chain; In the hotel sector, the epidemic disturbs short-term performance, leading hotels expand against the trend, continue to open stores in large quantities, constantly consolidate their internal strength, and highlight the head effect. Once the travel demand is released, it will directly benefit from the recovery of the industry, the cycle reversal is in sight, and the performance elasticity is expected; The tax-free sector is affected by the epidemic in the short term. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the potential of Hainan as an international tourism consumption city, which is also conducive to promoting China to form a new development pattern with China's big cycle as the main body and China's international double cycle promoting each other.
If the epidemic situation is improved before May Day, tourism consumption will increase significantly Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) analyst Zhang Xiaolin pointed out that in the medium and long term, the recovery of the tourism market mainly depends on the trend of the epidemic in China and the R & D process of covid-19 specific drugs. Overall, the willingness of Chinese tourists to travel remains unchanged, and the tourism market will recover in stages under the repeated influence of the epidemic. It is suggested to pay attention to China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) .
potential stock selection
\u3000\u3000 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888)
From the perspective of stores, the expense side of the company is mainly composed of labor and depreciation, which has significant rigidity. Then, the passenger flow will recover and the passenger unit price will be further improved, and the profitability of stores is expected to continue to improve. From the perspective of the group, the new harbor duty-free city is expected to reduce the headquarters expense rate and improve the overall profitability of the group in addition to the revenue and profit of the single store Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) pointed out that the passenger flow of Sanya and Haikou airports has only recovered to the level of 70-80% before the epidemic. Considering the collaborative enhancement of drainage capacity by the business types of outlying islands and Hainan's natural resource endowment, we believe that there is still 30% - 40% room for the recovery of passenger flow in Hainan. The repeated epidemic has hindered the passenger flow in Hainan, followed by the easing of the epidemic and the recovery of passenger flow in Hainan. With the superposition of the rigid cost characteristics of the tax-free industry in outlying islands, the profit end of China tax exemption is expected to continue to grow. The landing of new harbor is expected to lead the company out of the second growth curve.
\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754)
Although the epidemic situation of the company was repeated in 2021, the exhibition stores were disturbed, and the expansion rhythm changed slightly, the company still moved forward to the three-year doubling plan as a whole. As of the third quarter of 2021, the number of pipelines in the company remained high at 5074, with sufficient exhibition space Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that China's hotel chain rate has entered the middle and late stage, and we believe that the hotel group will enter the stage of product strength as the core competition in the future. In the middle of the three-year plan of the company, GIC Innovation Center + GPP direct cost reduction + full life cycle financial empowerment + the core variable for the improvement of hotel product power in the epidemic stage after the formation of hotel digitization; With the rationalization of internal governance mechanism, informatization and digital upgrading, as well as the subsequent experience of the group's high-star hotels and the empowerment of Radisson, the ability of product power moat to overturn single and weak brands will be continuously strengthened, and the potential of store opening growth + performance flexibility can be expected.
\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136)
The company is not only a leading leisure tourism enterprise in East China, but also a leading one-stop leisure and vacation destination in China. Under the background of continuous pressure on the overall tourism market after the epidemic, we have achieved an orderly recovery of performance by relying on high-quality products and excellent operation capacity. In five of the seven quarters since the epidemic, we have achieved net profit attributable to the parent company, and the gross profit margin remained at a level of more than 50% in 2020 and the first three quarters of 2021. Minsheng Securities pointed out that the company has always been positioned as a national one-stop leisure and vacation destination, not limited to a single scenic spot product or style, and has successfully built a number of high-quality projects such as Nanshan bamboo sea, landscape garden, Yushui hot spring, water world and so on. On the occasion of its 30th anniversary, the company put forward the strategy of "consolidating the base area, taking root in the Yangtze River Delta, paying attention to urban agglomeration and professional development", which aims to explore the extension expansion inside and outside the province on the basis of steady development and open up the space for long-term growth.
\u3000\u3000 Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144)
The company expects to make a year-on-year turnaround in 2021, although the number of main shows in various scenic spots has decreased significantly since November, which has dragged down the recovery process. However, the company still has long-term growth potential and looks forward to the flexibility of the scenic spot after its full opening. From the perspective of stock projects, after the impact of the epidemic is weakened, the stock projects will continue to repair their performance, and the second round expansion projects such as Guilin and Zhang Jia Jie Tourism Group Co.Ltd(000430) are expected to usher in the performance outbreak period. From the perspective of incremental projects, the construction of Foshan, Xitang and Zhuhai performing arts Valley is continuously advancing Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that the repeated outbreaks in many places limited the flow of tourists to a certain extent and had a negative impact on the recovery speed of the industry. However, with the vaccination and stable control of the epidemic situation, the recovery situation of each scenic spot of the company will be accelerated. The good business development of Huafang group, the successive implementation of new projects and the comprehensive expansion and upgrading of existing projects will become the main driving force for the rebound of the company's performance.
\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043)
The company's revenue in 2021 was 3.890 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 18.33%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 558 million, with a year-on-year increase of 20.28%. The performance met market expectations. During the reporting period, the company bucked the trend and opened and reopened 7 stores under the brands of " Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) ," taotaoju "and" Xingyue city ", completed the merger and acquisition of 6 Haiyue taojumen stores, and added 13 stores in total Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) points out that in 2021, Guangzhou and Maoming bases will further enhance their production capacity through technological transformation. The moon cake production capacity of Guangzhou and Xiangtan bases will realize cross regional coordination and linkage, and the production capacity of Xiangtan base will be further improved. Meizhou phase I trial production will be carried out in the third quarter of 2021, and the subsequent gradual production will help further breakthrough the production capacity of quick freezing business; Xiangtan phase II will be put into operation in 2023 and is expected to add 38500 tons of capacity. In the future, the quick freezing capacity will be further released.
