Since the beginning of this year, the semiconductor industry has experienced a round of in-depth adjustment. Since the beginning of the year, the A-share Semiconductor Index (bk1036) has fallen by more than 28%, reaching a phased low on Friday (April 15).
In sharp contrast to the market trend, the sector showed a bright quarterly forecast. According to the statistics of the science and Innovation Board daily, as of press time, a-share 20 semiconductor companies have released Q1 performance forecasts: 9 companies have predicted revenue, of which 6 have increased by more than 40% year-on-year; 18 companies predicted net profits, of which 13 increased by more than 50% year-on-year
Q1 performance forecast of semiconductor industry (year-on-year change)
breakdown, the three branches of equipment, materials and power semiconductors show higher prosperity
At present, only Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) disclosed the performance forecast among semiconductor equipment manufacturers, and its Q1 revenue and net profit increased by 40% - 60% and 170% - 200% respectively year-on-year; In the material sector, the lower limit of net profit increase of Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) , Jiangsu Nata Opto-Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300346) , Grinm Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(600206) , Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) , Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) is 46% - 275%; In the power semiconductor sector, the net profits of Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) , Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) and Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) have achieved positive year-on-year growth, and Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) also expects the revenue to increase by 45% year-on-year in the quarter.
Looking back at the design sector at profitfell year-on-year.
▍ localization demands and demand driven changes support high performance growth
According to the production expansion plans of major wafer factories, the production expansion is still at its peak from 2022 to 2023, and the core demand of Chinese wafer factories has changed from "stable production" to "solving supply chain security", which significantly boosted the localization process of semiconductor equipment and materials, and then boosted the order volume of relevant companies. Huachuang Securities said that at present, China's wafer factories are far from meeting the independent and controllable needs. The production expansion plan of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) 's key customers is advancing steadily, and it is expected to see the landing of large orders in the short term.
On the other hand, in the past, the era of consumer electronics led by smart phones was gradually handed over to automotive electronics. At the same time, under the background of carbon neutralization, there will be a strong demand for new energy power generation. The demand driven change has brought huge incremental space for power semiconductors such as IGBT, MOSFET and MCU. At present, the on hand orders of Infineon and Italy France semiconductor, the world's leading manufacturers of power devices, are more than twice and 1.5 times of the revenue in 2021 respectively.
▍ the high outlook of the industry is questioned, and the three main lines are still optimistic
At present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the spread of the epidemic have suppressed the recovery of downstream terminal demand and led to short-term tension in the supply of some raw materials. The market is worried that the demand for consumer products such as PC / mobile phone will decline in 2022. The sales volume of new energy vehicles as an increment is affected by the cost and supply chain, while the foundry capacity of wafer is difficult to have a large-scale increment in the first half of the year, and its price rise for IC design companies will constitute transfer pressure. Therefore, whether the high prosperity of the semiconductor industry can be sustained has been marked with a big question mark.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) analyst Huang Leping said bluntly that affected by the lack of core, the Q1 revenue growth of the equipment industry this year slowed down, and it is expected that the stock price of the semiconductor industry will still be under pressure in the next month Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) analyst Wang Mou said that although the global semiconductor production capacity will be released gradually after Q2, the factors affecting downstream demand in the second half of the year are more complex, and it is difficult to judge the decline space of semiconductors. Whether a hard landing or a soft landing is mainly related to the stability of downstream demand growth of new energy.
However, in the long run, the three main lines of equipment, materials and power semiconductors are still widely optimistic. Deng Yao, an analyst at Guokai securities, said that the short-term disturbance does not change the long-term growth. Looking forward to the second quarter, the growth rate of the first quarter report may slow down due to the high base and epidemic factors, coupled with the structural relief of the lack of core, and the market is expected to continue to differentiate. It is suggested to pay attention to the equipment field with strong performance cashability, as well as the leading companies in the field of power semiconductors whose domestic substitution process is accelerated under the trend of automotive intelligence and dual carbon.
He Chen, an analyst at Caixin securities, also said that Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) and Huahong semiconductor law can preliminarily confirm that China's major wafer foundry is not affected by regulation, and its production expansion plan is still steadily advancing. Therefore, the income of semiconductor equipment in the early stage is expected to be gradually confirmed in the first half of the year. At the same time, the performance of semiconductor materials driven by the wafer foundry capacity successively invested since 2020 is expected to be reflected gradually.
