The real estate sector continues to make efforts.
Following the strong rise of the previous day, the real estate sector rose against the trend again on April 15. With the strength of the real estate sector, the net value of active equity funds with heavy positions in real estate stocks continued to rise, and the highest performance in the year has risen by more than 40%. Real estate ETF funds have received a large influx of funds, and the share of some products has more than tripled.
Public funders believe that the current economic downward trend has not been reversed, and real estate, as a pillar industry, plays a role in stabilizing the economy. In the short term, the excess market of real estate may continue until the market transaction expectation gradually rises to the predetermined economic goal, that is, to complete the mission of “stable growth”, in which the blue chip valuation of leading real estate and sector has more room for repair and growth.
real estate sector rebounded 31% in one breath
In recent days, the real estate sector has attracted much market attention.
On April 14, the real estate index rose nearly 4% in a single day, causing heated discussion in the market. On April 15, the real estate sector bucked the trend again, and the index rose slightly throughout the day. There are still strong stocks in the sectors that have been significantly differentiated, and there are not a few that have stepped out of the continuous board and reached a new stage high or even a record high.
As of the closing, Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) , Chongqingyukaifaco.Ltd(000514) , Beih-Property Co.Ltd(600791) , Tande Co.Ltd(600665) , etc. sealed the trading limit. Among them, Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) Chongqingyukaifaco.Ltd(000514) , Beih-Property Co.Ltd(600791) promotion to triple board.
Since mid March, the real estate sector has stepped out of the independent rising market. On March 16, the Finance Committee held a special meeting to study the current economic situation and capital market issues.
The meeting made it clear that “we must implement the central decision-making and deployment, earnestly revitalize the economy in the first quarter, take the initiative to respond to monetary policies, and maintain a moderate growth in new loans. As for real estate enterprises, we should timely study and put forward effective solutions to prevent and resolve risks, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model”.
The most important change in the above statement is that the debt resolution problem has been implemented to real estate enterprises from the previous real estate industry. So far, the real estate sector has launched a vigorous Jedi counterattack, and the sector has continued to set off a tide of trading,
According to the data, in the month from March 16 to April 15, the real estate index rose by 27.21%, leading the rise among the 11 primary industry indexes, with a difference of more than 36 percentage points from the information technology index at the bottom. In the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.81%.
The 800 real estate index has rebounded sharply by 31.41% since March 16, leading the performance of mainstream industries.
In terms of valuation, after a rebound of more than 30%, the real estate sector ushered in an obvious valuation repair. As of April 15, the latest valuation of 800 real estate index rose to 9.5 times, which was significantly repaired from the previous lowest point of 6.4 times, but it was still lower than the historical time range of nearly 60%.
CITIC Mingming bond research team believes that the sharp rise in the real estate sector since mid March includes the boost to market sentiment caused by the loosening of real estate policies in various cities, as well as the expectation of the market for further loosening of real estate policies under the increasing downward pressure on the economy. In addition, under the background of the increasing impact of the epidemic, the certainty of real estate stocks is stronger, and the stock funds also begin to transfer to the real estate sector.
heavy position fund earns 42% most
With the strength of the real estate sector, the performance of active equity funds with heavy positions in real estate stocks has also risen, and some products have increased by more than 40% this year.
As of April 14, the real estate index rose nearly 17% in the past month against the background that the Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.07%. At the same time, the funds with the highest growth in the same period are mostly products that “ambush” the real estate sector in advance.
According to the data, as of April 14, the net value of 68 active equity funds (consolidated statistics of each share) has increased by more than 10% in the past month, of which the performance of 10 funds has increased by more than 15%.
Some funds may have adjusted their positions in the near future. The direction of position adjustment is that the recent increase is relatively leading, including steel, coal, real estate, etc. And some funds have been sticking to real estate stocks and achieved good returns.
For example, among the top ten heavyweight stocks at the end of 2021, the top six heavyweight stocks are all real estate related stocks and have been held for 2 years (8 periods), among which the three stocks with the highest weight have been held for more than 4 years (16 periods).
Since this year, as of April 14, the net value of 10000 macro timing and Multi Strategy units has increased by 42.48%, leading the active equity funds. In addition, the growth of Wanjia Xinli and Wanjia selected funds over the same period was more than 35%.
The three funds are managed by Huang Hai alone. Combing the positions of the three products, it is found that the positions of the three funds are highly convergent. In the heavy position real estate industry, the proportion of real estate stocks held by some funds was up to more than 80%.
In addition, there are real estate stocks in the list of heavyweight stocks of most fund products with high growth, such as Jingshun Great Wall resource monopoly, Qianhai open source cycle optimization a, etc.
real estate ETF shares increased significantly
While the active equity net value of heavy positions in real estate related sectors continued to rise, the performance of real estate index funds was also good. Among them, ETF funds have achieved significant net capital inflow, and the fund shares have increased more than twice during the year.
In the context of wide market volatility and large-scale decline in the performance of equity funds this year, only real estate themed, bank themed and energy themed products in passive index funds maintained positive returns during the year. As for ETF products, as of April 14, the highest increase of real estate theme ETF in nearly a month has been nearly 20%.
The shares of four real estate ETF funds also increased significantly. Statistics show that as of April 14, the share of real estate ETF has increased in the past month, among which the share of Huabao CSI 800 real estate ETF increased the most, reaching 97.11%.
As a fund tracking the 800 real estate index, the real estate ETF has rebounded by 29.46% with the sharp rise of the index since March 16, ranking first among the ETFs of more than 550 stocks in the same period. The range turnover rate is as high as 809%, which is the most active ETF industry in the same period.
Over the same period, the share of China Securities all index real estate ETF also increased rapidly, with an increase of more than 75%; The ETF shares of the other two properties both increased by a quarter.
I mentioned that, as the largest real estate ETF at present, as of April 14, China Southern Securities all refers to the net inflow of funds from real estate ETF funds for seven consecutive days, amounting to nearly 800 million.
By extending the time to the beginning of the year, the share of Huabao CSI 800 real estate ETF increased from about 30 million at the beginning of the year to 106 million, an increase of 234.55%; Huaxia China Securities all refers to the share of real estate ETF, which also nearly doubled.
real estate stock investment opportunities still exist
As for the future trend of the real estate sector, the public offering industry generally believes that as long as the downward pressure of the economy is not substantially relieved, or the bottom of real estate sales is not confirmed, the deregulation policy of real estate will continue to be introduced, so there is still room for real estate stocks to rise.
Huabao fund Jiang junyang believes that the current economic downward trend has not been reversed, and real estate, as a pillar industry, plays a role in stabilizing the economy. Recently, more than 50 cities have issued demand side policies, and mortgage interest rates are falling in more than 80 cities. On the supply side, the industry concentration is still improving, the financing conditions of middle waist enterprises are improved, and the profitability of the industry will be greatly improved. At present, the real estate sector has the characteristics of low valuation and high dividend. Real estate ETF will be a good choice for investment.
Some fund managers said in the first quarterly report that the real estate industry may accelerate the pace of relaxation, and there is still good return potential after the real estate market stabilizes in the future.
Qiu Dongrong, the star fund manager of Zhonggeng fund, believes that finance and real estate in the large market value stocks. The logic of allocation is: in the financial sector, we are optimistic about regional banking stocks related to the manufacturing industry chain, serving the real economy and having unique competitive advantages. This kind of banking business is relatively simple and has limited exposure to real estate risk, showing the characteristics of stable operation, low fundamental risk, extremely low valuation and high growth.
Real estate companies focus on leading central enterprises with high credit and low financing cost, which will be the beneficiaries of this round of risks. Qiu Dongrong believes that the long-term demand for real estate is still, and the medium and short term is also an integral part of steady growth. With the adjustment of real estate policies and the support of financial resources, the systemic risk will decline. Such companies have stronger anti risk ability, high possibility of extension expansion and extremely low valuation. When the real estate market is stable in the future, there will still be good return potential.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the policy direction is clear and optimistic about blue chip real estate enterprises. The year-on-year decline of 40% – 50% in the real estate industry is not the norm in the industry. We believe that the competent authorities will actively introduce policies to stabilize demand and have the ability to stabilize expectations. From the historical recovery, the excess returns of the real estate sector and leading real estate stocks in the policy relaxation cycle are very significant.
