hpv vaccine “only needs one shot” news, instantly plunged several concept stocks
On April 14, Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) plunged rapidly during the session, falling more than 18%, and the total market value fell back below 200 billion, but it still failed to stop falling the next day.
On the news front, according to the news released on the official website of who recently, from April 4 to April 7, the WHO advisory expert group on immunization strategy (SAGE) held a meeting to review the evidence of one dose of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, and came to the conclusion that single dose HPV vaccine can provide reliable protection, which is equivalent to the effect of two or three doses of vaccination scheme. Affected by this news, Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) fell one after another
As of the closing on April 15, Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) continued to decline, and finally closed at 115.98 yuan / share, down 0.02%, with the latest market value of 185.6 billion yuan.
“just one shot” tumbled the share price
Cervical cancer is the fourth most common malignancy in the world. It is also the only malignant tumor that is considered to be the cause of human cancer. However, the incidence rate and mortality rate of cervical cancer has not declined significantly.
The burden of cervical cancer in China is heavy, and the incidence of cervical cancer is highly related to HPV infection. After years of research and development, there are five HPV vaccines approved for marketing in the world, including GlaxoSmithKline’s divalent HPV vaccine, Merck’s tetravalent HPV and jiuvalent HPV vaccine, Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) ‘s divalent HPV vaccine and Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) divalent HPV vaccine.
According to the information released by who, it reviewed the evidence of one dose of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine and concluded that a single dose of HPV vaccine can provide reliable protection, which is equivalent to the effect of two or three doses of vaccination regimen.
In other words, the effect of one injection of HPV vaccine is the same as that of three injections.
At the same time, who assistant director general nothemba (nono) simelela said that single dose vaccination has lower cost, takes less resources and is easier to manage. It also makes it easier to carry out replanting campaigns for different age groups, reduces the challenge of tracking and managing multiple vaccinations, and the saved health funds and human resources can be used for other health priorities.
In this regard, sage recommends the following immunization procedures: women aged 9-14 (the highest priority population) are vaccinated once or twice; 15-20-year-old women were vaccinated once or twice; Women over 21 years old were vaccinated twice (with an interval of 6 months). Individuals with low immune function, including HIV infected people, should be vaccinated with three doses if feasible, and at least two doses if not. There is limited evidence of the efficacy of a single dose in this group.
Public information shows that cervical cancer is mainly caused by human papillomavirus (HPV), which is the main cause of cancer in women. HPV vaccine has high efficacy, which can prevent almost 100% of vaccine type specific HPV infections and diseases, and significantly reduce the risk of cervical cancer at the individual level.
It is reported that three kinds of HPV vaccines have been licensed: bivalent vaccine can prevent HPV16 / 18; Tetravalent vaccine can prevent HPV16 / 18 / 6 / 11; The nine valent vaccine can prevent nine HPV genotypes, including HPV6 / 11 / 16 / 18 / 31 / 33 / 45 / 52 / 58.
As the largest vaccine for prevention, the nine price vaccine is almost hard to get, while the only one that supplies the nine price vaccine in the world is moshadong. There are about 3.6 billion women in the world, which can only be in short supply.
“vaccine myth” can be continued
Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) as the only sole agent enterprise in China that owns moshadong four valent HPV vaccine and nine valent HPV vaccine, according to the data of recent three years, nearly 90% of the company’s operating revenue comes from the agent vaccine.
However, in the mid-term report of 2021, Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) agent products accounted for 54.03% of the revenue, while the revenue of independent products began to rise, reaching 6.037 billion yuan, accounting for 45.84%.
Perhaps because the vaccine agency contract will expire soon, Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) must find a new profit growth point. It is reported that the vaccine cooperation between the company and MSD will expire at the end of June 2023. If the license cannot be renewed, it may affect half of the company’s revenue.
In March of this year, a recombinant New Coronavirus protein vaccine (COVID-19 recombinant protein vaccine) developed by Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , a wholly owned subsidiary of Chi Fei dragon and the microbiology Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences, was granted conditional listing.
The vaccine also received the platform of academician Zhong Nanshan. Previously, on April 8, academician Zhong Nanshan said publicly that his third injection was Zhifei’s recombinant protein covid-19 vaccine.
However, this will not change Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) ‘s business model of “agency + autonomy”. Reviewing the development history of Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) and according to the information on its official website, the company was founded in 1995 and landed in the A-share market in 2010. The company is mainly engaged in the R & D, production and sales of vaccines and biological products. At the beginning of its establishment, the company mainly engaged in agency business. After that, through independent research and development, the company gradually established its own product system, namely “agency + autonomy”.
As for the R & D investment of Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , compared with the R & D expense rate of the industry, the proportion of the company’s R & D investment has always been less than 3%. But in fact, 54% of Zhifei’s income comes from agent vaccine. The R & D manufacturer of agent vaccine is MSD (USA), which has little to do with Zhifei itself.
Therefore, excluding the income of agency products, Zhifei’s R & D expense rate meets the industry standard. However, with the significant increase in the income of independent products, its expense rate will decline again in 2021.
Some investors also pointed out that although the short-term market reaction was excessive, the latest statement of the World Health Organization also brought some uncertainty to HPV vaccination. If there are major changes in HPV vaccination in the future, the relevant business of Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) and other HPV vaccine sales enterprises will be greatly impacted.
how long will it take for universal vaccination
The who also proposed in the article that by 2030, the coverage rate of HPV vaccination for girls aged 9 to 14 will reach more than 90%, the coverage rate of effective cervical cancer screening for adult women aged 35 to 45 will reach more than 70%, and at least 90% of women with lesions after screening need to be treated and managed reasonably.
However, it should be noted that the coverage rate of people who have completed two doses of HPV vaccine in 2020 only accounts for 13%.
In China, after Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) and Mercedes, the four and nine valent vaccines imported into Chinese mainland are only millions of per year. HPV nine valent vaccine and quadruvalent vaccine are still in short supply.
According to the data, in 2020, the tetravalent HPV vaccine of MSD was issued in batches of 7.2194 million; The number of nine valent HPV vaccines issued in batches is 5.066 million. It can be seen that the gap of HPV vaccines in China is still large, and it is normal that “one dose is difficult to obtain”.
In March this year, Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) ended its 17 year long run and China’s second HPV vaccine was approved. Wozehui, a bivalent human papillomavirus vaccine (hpv2 vaccine) independently developed and produced by its subsidiary Yuxi Zerun, has obtained the listing approval of the State Drug Administration. This is the second bivalent HPV vaccine approved in China, and Yuxi Zerun is also the fourth enterprise in the world to obtain the listing license of cervical cancer vaccine.
On April 14, Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) said in the announcement that the company provided more products to the society by increasing production capacity to meet the market supply. In 2021, it has reached the capacity of 30 million tubes / year, and actively supplied the market to enable more school-age women to prevent cervical cancer through vaccination.
