Under the counterattack of the epidemic, the global automobile industry has been blocked again.
On April 15, Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei's consumer business and CEO of smart car Bu, said on the social platform, "if Shanghai cannot resume work and production, after May, all science and technology and industrial industries involving Shanghai's supply chain will stop production, especially the automobile industry."
He Xiaopeng, chairman and CEO of Xiaopeng automobile, also expressed the same concern and said through the social platform, "if Shanghai and surrounding supply chain enterprises can't find a dynamic way to resume production, all vehicle factories in China may stop production in May."P align = "center" Image Source: social platform (he Xiaopeng circle of friends)
"The automobile supply chain enterprises in Shanghai and its surrounding areas are almost connected with the national automobile enterprises, which may have a slightly smaller impact on FAW Group and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . If it is not well controlled, it may be difficult to realize the annual sales of 5 million new energy vehicles this year." Cao he, President of quanlian car dealer Investment Management (Beijing) company, said in an interview with the reporter of daily economic news.
Affected by the news of supply chain shutdown, the performance of many "Star car enterprises" in the capital market began to decline. As of press time, Tesla (tsla) reported US $985 / share, down 3.66%; Xpev reported $26.93 per share, down 2.64%; NiO reported $19.65 per share, down 3.77%.
epidemic has brought phased impact, and production activities have dropped to a low level
\u3000\u3000 "According to the provincial production data of the National Bureau of statistics, the automobile output of Shanghai and Jilin Province respectively accounts for about 11% of the national automobile output. Some enterprises in Shanghai operate at full capacity, and Shanghai is also the core hub of China's high-end automobile parts enterprises. Therefore, the production and sales of passenger cars in the core areas of the automobile industry such as Shanghai and Jilin will be greatly affected in April. Due to the long automobile industry chain and high requirements for coordination, the production and sales of core parts will be greatly affected The shutdown of production and logistics base covers a wider range, and the production and marketing pressure of automobile market in April may be great. At present, the production situation of manufacturers in the first week of April is not optimistic. Automobile is the most complex and sophisticated industrial chain system. If (enterprise shutdown) lasts for a long time, the secondary disaster loss of automobile parts will be huge. " Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information joint committee, told reporters.
According to the latest survey of 102 enterprises in eastern cities of China, 36% of the companies stopped production in the first and second weeks of April due to the closure measures in Shanghai. Vehicle and parts, semiconductor and related industries were affected.
More importantly, the Shanghai epidemic may cut off the logistics system of the global automobile industry chain. From vehicle to chip, from parts to battery equipment, from sensors to industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , they are blocked in place. In addition, the freight volume of Shanghai port has decreased by 40%, and its impact on the global industrial chain is deepening.
"Since mid April, some enterprises have begun to shut down their supply chains due to the closure (Management) of Shanghai and other cities. If this continues, the industrial economic losses and costs will be great." Yu Chengdong said on the social platform.
In fact, the impact of the epidemic has been reflected in car production. According to the data of the passenger Association, the output of many car enterprises fell sharply in March. Among them, the output of FAW Hongqi fell 73% year-on-year in March, FAW Volkswagen fell 45.8%, SAIC GM fell 31.3%, Beijing Benz fell 30.7%, brilliance BMW fell 51% and SAIC Maxus fell 34% year-on-year.
"Because the epidemic has increased the pressure on the real economy, the power of consumption is insufficient. From the perspective of enterprises, the market is weak and orders are decreasing. The epidemic in Shanghai and Jilin has seriously affected the normal production and operation of local enterprises, such as SAIC passenger car, SAIC GM, SAIC Volkswagen, etc. primary suppliers are limited, (auto enterprises) Basically at a standstill. In the production stage, the production activities of the factory have been reduced to the lowest level in more than two years. " Shi Jianhua, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association, told reporters.
However, in Shi Jianhua's view, after more than two years of the epidemic, China's epidemic situation can still see the results clearly. It will not bring permanent harm, but only a phased impact. Shutdown is also a phased impact. After the epidemic is controlled, the backward production capacity and sales volume can be remedied, which will not have an irreversible impact on the performance of the automobile industry in the whole year.
several auto companies have announced to stop production
As one of the largest automobile clusters in China, the impact of the suspension and reduction of production in Shanghai is gradually fermenting and growing.
On April 9, Weilai automobile announced on its official app that it had suspended vehicle production. In this regard, Wei Lai said that since March, due to the epidemic, the company's supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have stopped production one after another, which has not been restored yet. Due to the above reasons, many users will delay the delivery of their vehicles in the near future.
On April 11, the relevant person in charge of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) said that affected by the epidemic in many places, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) many parts suppliers were affected, resulting in limited factory capacity; On April 14, the tank official announced that the production of its popular model tank 300 would be suspended from now on. The shutdown was due to the suspension and shutdown of eight suppliers of tank 300 affected by the epidemic. With the suspension of production of tank 300, the delivery of vehicles of tank 300 users will also be delayed. At present, the cumulative undelivered orders of 300 tanks have reached 140000, and the vehicle collection cycle has been more than half a year.
As early as March 28, Tesla began to suspend the production of Shanghai Super factory, and successively cancelled the production plans originally scheduled to resume on April 1 and April 2. On April 15, it was reported that Tesla (Shanghai Super factory) may not return to work until May 15. In other words, Tesla Shanghai Super factory may continue to shut down for one month. However, the relevant person in charge of Tesla China denied the above news when replying to a request for comment from the daily economic news.
In the previous half month, in order to cooperate with the epidemic control, FAW Group's five major vehicle factories in Changchun, including FAW Toyota and FAW Volkswagen, successively stopped production. SAIC Volkswagen also announced its shutdown after entering April.
The list of Japanese car manufacturers is getting longer and longer, not only in China. In addition to Dafa, Mitsubishi and Honda, Mazda was also forced to stop production due to the interruption of parts supply caused by the Shanghai epidemic.
Cui Dongshu said that according to estimates, the epidemic in Shanghai and other places is expected to bring 20% of the production loss to China's automobile industry. At the same time, the "Jiangsu Zhejiang emblem" zone with Shanghai as the core is also the core area for the supply of core auto parts. The epidemic situation in Shanghai will have a great impact on the supply of key parts in the auto industry.
"Guangdong, Jilin and Shanghai ranked among the top three in China in terms of automobile output, accounting for 33.3% of the total output. However, the interruption of the industrial chain magnified the impact of the epidemic on the production in the Yangtze River Delta, accounting for 21.6% of the automobile output and 31.2% of the added value of the automobile industry.
”Huafu Securities said in the relevant research report that since March, the epidemic has erupted in Guangdong, Jilin, Shanghai and other places. Considering the large economic volume of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, and the outbreak areas are large automobile production and marketing regions, the impact of the epidemic on the production and consumption of the automobile industry may far exceed the first quarter of 2020.
automobile industry launches "supply guarantee battle"
The reporter learned that many automobile supply chain enterprises of factories in Shanghai have prepared plans as early as before the sealing and control management, so as to ensure the maintenance of production during the sealing and control period.
"Before the sealing control management, the workers of the production line have been stationed in the factory. In the closed-loop management of the factory, they adhere to the production. Although the production capacity has decreased compared with the past, they can at least ensure the supply of orders for the whole vehicle factory." Insiders of an auto parts enterprise in Shanghai disclosed to reporters.
In addition, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) its complete vehicle factories and parts enterprises are also actively promoting the resumption of work and production. Recently, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) issued the notice on Issuing the guidelines for the prevention and control of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) resumption of work and production epidemic, which said that before the full unsealing of Shanghai, the group uniformly submitted an application for subordinate enterprises to start the "white list" of resumption of work and production enterprises in advance, and required that in the early stage of resumption of work and production, all units should do a good job in the modeling and scheduling of resumption personnel, service capacity, supply chain and other work, and make preparations for resumption of work and production, And said that the production enterprises started the stress test of returning to work and production on Monday, April 18, according to the scheduling situation.
"This is the preliminary preparation for the group to make a thorough investigation of the situation of its units. Whether it can return to work and production smoothly in the follow-up depends on the thorough investigation and the decision should be made according to the situation of the epidemic." Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) staff told reporters.
It is worth mentioning that the crisis of "supply interruption" caused by the epidemic has attracted key attention at the national level. "The good news is that some ministries and departments in charge are doing their best to coordinate and look forward to the support and joint efforts of more governments and departments in charge." He Xiaopeng wrote on the social platform.
Chang Lijia, general manager of Zhejiang Business Department of SAIC freight travel platform, said in an interview with chinanews.com: "since the outbreak of this round of epidemic in Shanghai, the parts supply chain of automobile manufacturing enterprises has been blocked, which has directly affected the progress of vehicle manufacturing. The top priority is to restore parts transportation by setting up a transfer station."
According to the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council and the work deployment of relevant Chinese ministries and commissions, in order to alleviate the shortage crisis of parts supply chain of some auto enterprises in Shanghai, Zhejiang deployed to establish an industrial chain emergency supply guarantee transfer station in Hangzhou.
On April 11, entrusted by the first Department of equipment industry of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the equipment industry development center of the Ministry of industry and information technology officially launched the "smooth supply chain coordination platform of automobile industry chain", which will solicit the actual difficulties faced by national automobile enterprises and supply chain enterprises and solve them in a timely manner. The main functions of the platform include basic information registration, question feedback and message reply of automobile industry chain and supply chain enterprises. Through the platform, we can exchange information on the practical problems of resumption of work and production, logistics and transportation, and establish the problem appeal and feedback mechanism of automobile industry chain supply chain enterprises, so as to timely coordinate and solve the practical difficulties faced by enterprises in production and operation.
In addition, in view of the logistics difficulties, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council also recently issued the notice on effectively ensuring the smooth transportation of freight logistics, which mentioned that if the epidemic situation requires the implementation of the whole area closed management of prefecture level cities, municipal districts, counties, prefecture level cities and above, the epidemic prevention and control measures shall be approved and published by the prefecture level and provincial joint prevention and control mechanism respectively. It is not allowed to restrict the traffic of vehicles and passengers at any time. It is not allowed to use the car site and registered residence as the restricted access conditions. It is not allowed to restrict the traffic and parking of vehicles by simply using the green belt of the truck division personnel and crew members.
However, it should be noted that the recurrence of the epidemic still makes the task of stable growth of China's automobile production and sales difficult. China Automobile Association said that looking forward to the situation of the whole year, affected by the macro-economy, the development of the automobile industry is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation. Local governments should refine and implement national policies and measures related to steady growth as soon as possible, and enterprises should continue to actively take effective response measures. At the same time, it is suggested that government departments introduce policies and measures to promote automobile consumption, including the effective purchase tax halving policy in the past.
