On April 15, the coal index fell 2.53%, the largest decline in nearly a month. However, three shares of Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) ( Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) . SZ), Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co.Ltd(600508) ( Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co.Ltd(600508) . SH), Yunnan Yunwei Company Limited(600725) ( Yunnan Yunwei Company Limited(600725) . SH) rose by 7.08%.
As the most stable sector of A-share profitability this year, should coal be "flameout"?
According to the previous statistics of times finance, less than 6% of equity funds achieved positive returns in the first quarter. However, the coal funds under Cathay Pacific Fund, Wells Fargo fund, Zhongrong fund and China Merchants Fund took a 20% range return, far ahead of their peers.
After entering April, the rise of coal is still fierce. As of April 15, the coal index rose 34.27% this year, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 15.21% in the same period.
This year, the coal sector is coming fiercely. It is difficult not to remind people of the "coal crazy" in the third quarter of last year: the market price of power coal once exceeded 2000 yuan / ton, and the share price of coal enterprises kept rising.
However, times finance and economics noted that at the moment when the share price of coal enterprises was started, the coal futures price was relatively stable, and the spot price also fell.
So, what are the reasons for the recent sharp rise in the coal sector? How long can this round of market last?
On April 15, a number of listed coal enterprises told times finance that it was impossible to judge the follow-up market of coal this year. Many brokerage research reports are optimistic that coal prices will remain high in the second quarter.
However, many institutions told times finance that clean energy development is the general trend and are not optimistic about the long-term trend of the coal sector.
coal price was stable and share price rose sharply
As a representative of cyclical stocks, the rise and fall of the coal sector in the stock market often have a linkage effect with coal futures and spot prices.
Taking the coal market in the second half of last year as an example, when the A-share coal sector was launched at the end of August 2021, the futures and spot prices of thermal coal are also brewing to rise. Subsequently, the CITIC coal index reached its peak in mid September, while the futures and spot prices of thermal coal continued to rise, reaching its peak in mid October; At this time, the coal sector of the stock market is at a high level and volatile.
With the introduction of a number of national policies to "guarantee supply" and stabilize market prices, the A-share coal sector also "flameout".
At the beginning of this year, the sharp rise of the coal sector in the stock market seems to have nothing to do with the coal price: when the share price of coal enterprises starts, the coal price is relatively stable. At present, the settlement price of thermal coal futures is running up and down at 800 yuan / ton, and the market price of thermal coal (Q: 5500) in Qinhuangdao port has dropped to around 1000 yuan / ton.
Is the stock price of coal enterprises really irrelevant to the coal price? What are the factors driving this round of rise in the coal sector?
On April 14, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) analyst Zu guopeng pointed out in the research report that the recent rise of the coal sector has been driven by four factors: first, the coal price has remained high since the beginning of the year, the market's profit expectation for the sector has been rising continuously, and the valuation level is at a low level, which is the basis of the continuous rise of the sector; Second, the expectations of lowering the reserve requirement, steady growth of infrastructure and relaxation of real estate policies will help to improve the demand expectation and enhance the valuation of the sector; Third, overseas oil prices are the main driver of recent fluctuations in the sector; In addition, since the beginning of the year, the coal sector has led the increase. At present, there is momentum effect, which continues to attract capital attention.
Times finance also observed that coal prices were running at a high level year-on-year last year; At the beginning of this year, the coal price was significantly lower than that in the third quarter of last year, but it was still high. As can be seen from the above chart, the market price of thermal coal (Q: 5500) in Qinhuangdao port has dropped to about 1000 yuan / ton, but it is nearly 300 yuan higher than that in the same period last year.
The high price of coal has naturally raised the performance level of coal enterprises.
On April 15, Zhang Guangwen, deputy general manager of Nanchuan private equity fund, said in an interview with times finance that the recent stock price of coal companies is mainly driven by performance - the performance has soared and the valuation is low, which provides room for rise.
The sharp rise in performance has also increased the dividend intensity of coal enterprises. When the current market environment is volatile, dividends have also become the consideration standard for investors to choose the target.
Up to now, among the 18 listed coal enterprises that disclosed the annual report of 2021, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) plans to distribute 50.4 billion yuan in cash, and the dividend rate (total annual cash dividends / net profit after returning to the mother) is as high as 100.4%. In addition, Yankuang energy ( Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) . SH / 01171. HK), Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ( Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) . SH), Henan Dayou Energy Co.Ltd(600403) 2021 dividend rate also exceeded 60%.
Recently, many coal enterprises have disclosed the first quarter performance forecast, which is as eye-catching as the annual performance in 2021. Among them, Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) ( Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . SH), Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) ( Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) . SZ), Yankuang energy, China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) ( China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) . SH), Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) ( Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) . SZ), Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) and other companies, the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 exceeded 100%.
The performance is also directly related to the share price. Since this year, the share prices of the above companies have risen by 57.95%, 39.38%, 57.67%, 58.03%, 81.98% and 99.64% respectively, not only outperforming the market, but also leading the whole coal sector.
how long can the coal sector rise
With the largest decline in the month on April 15, will this wave of market come to an end, and can the coal sector continue to dominate the second quarter?
According to the logic of "performance driving share price", the trend of coal sector in the second quarter may depend on whether there is a correction in coal price.
Capital securities research report pointed out that the average price of the long-term association in the first quarter exceeded 720 yuan / ton, still higher than 590 yuan / ton in the same period last year; The pricing formula of 675 benchmark price + floating price will be implemented from May 1, and the coal price center is expected to remain high in the second quarter.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) guoguopeng predicted in the above research report that the price of thermal coal may weaken slightly due to the off-season from April to may, but the average price in the second quarter will still be higher than the average level of last year, and the average price in subsequent quarters may rise quarter by quarter, and the average price of the whole year is expected to rise by 10% ~ 12% year-on-year; The price of coking coal is expected to increase by about 10% in the third quarter. Combined with the low price base in the first half of last year, the annual coal price increase is expected to be 20 ~ 25%.
On April 15, times finance called a number of listed coal enterprises and said that it was impossible to judge how the coal price would change in the second quarter.
Among them, the staff of Yankuang energy Securities Department told times finance and economics that the company pays close attention to the introduction of follow-up policies. However, as a coal enterprise in East China, the proportion of long-term association for guarantee and supply is not large.
As a leading enterprise of Shanxi power coal, Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) ( Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) . SH) successively said on the interactive platform that the company's coal prices are basically long-term cooperative prices and fluctuate accordingly according to the market prices; After May 1, the long-term association pricing will implement the new regulations of the national development and Reform Commission.
How long can coal prices remain high will directly determine the performance and share price of coal enterprises. However, many institutions told times finance that they are not optimistic about the long-term trend of the coal sector.
On April 15, the investment director of an investment company in South China told times finance and economics that under the background of the weakening stock market this year, the coal sector with good performance and large dividends is naturally welcomed by funds; However, in the long run, coal is still a sunset industry, and the demand will decline with the development of clean energy.
Zhang Guangwen believes that there is no room for the total growth of the coal sector and will be gradually replaced by clean energy in the future; The current rise of the coal sector is the result of this year or the special period of covid-19 epidemic, which can not be regarded as the logic of medium and long-term development of the coal sector, and the valuation of the industry itself will not be readjusted.
On April 13, a research report of CITIC futures also expressed similar views. CITIC futures analysts predict that China's coal demand will peak during the Tenth Five Year Plan Period: specifically, the demand for power coal will peak in 2027, with a peak of about 2.55 billion tons; Chemical coal consumption may not reach the peak time before the 15th five year plan, but it will also show a low growth trend.
"From the perspective of installed capacity and the growth rate of new installed capacity, although thermal power still occupies the main position, its core position has gradually declined, and the development of new energy has been in a high-speed period, and the development growth rate is greater than that of thermal power. Therefore, green power will replace thermal power into the historical stage." The above research report has judged the future positioning of coal and thermal power.
