China Power Council pointed out that the overall tight international power coal supply has led to a surge in imported coal prices.
In the morning of April 15, the coal mining index once rose by more than 5%, reaching a record high, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) ( Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) . SH) and Yankuang energy ( Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) . SH) both reached a record high, and China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ( China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) . SH) also reached a multi-year high. Since then, the sector has dropped significantly, closing down 3%.
According to the data, the coal mining index recorded an increase of 5.79% this week, significantly outperforming the market. In the first quarter, the index increased by 29%.
In terms of branch stock price, the recent rise of coal stocks is also very obvious. According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) has increased by 37.79%, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) has increased by more than 40%, Yankuang energy and China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) have exceeded 50%, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) share price has increased by 81.98%, and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) has increased by 99.6% in the year.
Since the first half of 2021, the global energy supply has been tight, the price of main energy has risen, and the demand for coal has continued to rise. From the disclosed 2021 business report and the first quarter report of this year, the profitability of the coal industry is still outstanding and the cash flow of enterprises is more stable.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) research team pointed out that the active replenishment cycle is not over, the global energy shortage is superimposed, the certainty of coal profit center is improved, and there is also room for value revaluation after the continuous improvement of dividend rate, so the sector ushered in a double-click market.
From the reports of several coal enterprises that have been disclosed, coal prices continue to drive the profit growth of coal enterprises.
China’s largest coal enterprise China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) 2021 achieved a revenue of 335.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 50.269 billion yuan, an increase of 28.3% year-on-year, and China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) even threw out a huge dividend plan of 50.466 billion yuan.
Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) ( Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) . SH) performance express shows that the company achieved a total revenue of 18.265 billion yuan last year, an increase of 67.49% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.658 billion yuan, a significant increase of 431.88% over the same period last year Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) previously released performance express said that last year, the revenue was 152.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 20.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.83%.
The operating data of coal enterprises in the first quarter was also considerable Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter will reach 5.1-6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 51.22% to 77.91% Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) it is estimated that the net profit in the first quarter is 2.32 billion yuan – 2.593 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 155% – 185% Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter is 850950 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 274.73% – 318.82%.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) analyst Zu guopeng pointed out that since this year, the overall performance of coal demand has been flat, but the performance of coal prices has continuously exceeded expectations, indicating that the supply is tight, and the supply bottleneck mainly comes from the reduction of imports. Under the influence of geopolitical conflicts in Eastern Europe, global energy prices remained high and the advantage of imported coal prices disappeared.
According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, in March 2022, China imported 16.42 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 39.9%; In the whole first quarter, the imported coal volume was 51.812 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24.2%. Imported coal accounts for a small proportion of the overall supply, but it still has a marginal driving effect on coal prices.
The weekly Ceci index analysis report issued by China Electricity Council pointed out that recently, the national development and Reform Commission continued to coordinate the coal mines of all provinces and central enterprises to maintain a high production level, the railway transportation had a shortage of transportation capacity in the off-season stage of coal consumption, and some power plants were in urgent need of inventory and main blended coal. The reduction of coal consumption of power plants and the decline of market coal transaction price have led to the decline of traders’ enthusiasm in coal mine procurement.
At the same time, Indonesia began to shrink its coal supply at the beginning of this month. The continuous heavy rainfall in Australia’s main producing areas and the railway capacity problem in South Africa have all had an impact on coal exports; The overall tight international power coal supply has led to a surge in imported coal prices.
CLP pointed out in its weekly report that the heating season is coming to an end, and the power consumption has also entered a relatively low season; At present, the inventory level is at the average level of the previous two years. Geopolitical conflicts have not been eased, which will continue to affect the supply and demand balance of the international energy system. As far as coal enterprises for power generation are concerned, they should make full use of the favorable opportunity of short consumption, relatively low coal price and high coal mine output to orderly improve the overall inventory and lay the foundation for stable energy supply in the later high load stage.
As of the afternoon closing on April 15, the main contract of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal futures was reported at 820 yuan / ton, up 1.33%; The main contract of coking coal futures was reported at 3152 yuan / ton, up 2.77%.
