“I personally judge that the installed capacity of new energy should be 140 GW this year. From next year, it is expected that the installed capacity growth rate of China’s photovoltaic market will enter an annual increase of 100 GW.”
This is the latest judgment made by Tao Ye, deputy director of the renewable energy development center of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, on the “2022 China photovoltaic market development forum” hosted by the China photovoltaic industry association and hosted by professional institutions on the 15th.
He said that this year, traditional energy coal and coal power should still maintain a certain growth, and the growth rate may be faster than last year, but this is not at the expense of new energy. From the perspective of new energy, if the installed capacity was close to 100 GW last year, it is obvious that China’s new energy installed capacity market will not stay at the level of 100 GW this year.
“At present, the data from January to March have not been officially released, but from the growth data in January and February, it can be seen that by the end of February, whether it is the new installed capacity of more than 10 million kilowatts of photovoltaic this year or more than 5 million kilowatts of wind power, it can obviously support the installed capacity of about 140 gigawatts of wind power and photovoltaic this year.” Tao Ye said.
Previously, the national power industry statistics from January to February released by the national energy administration showed that by the end of February, China had added 24.39 million kw of installed power generation, including 10.86 million kw of photovoltaic power, 5.73 million kw of wind power, 4.73 million kw of thermal power and 1.94 million kw of hydropower.
Specific to the photovoltaic market, he predicted that the installed capacity of 70-75 GW should be reached this year. Compared with last year, there were only more than 50 gigawatts.
“Even I personally think that by 2023, the installed capacity of China’s photovoltaic market will enter a growth rate of 100 gigawatts per year.” Tao Ye said, “these goals should be achieved in terms of project reserves and construction willingness, including enterprise transformation and national development demands.”
In his opinion, new energy, especially photovoltaic, was trying to realize “two wheel drive” before, but this year it really entered the “two wheel drive” stage. For example, large bases include large base projects such as “sago desert” (desert Gobi Desert), and distributed has also accounted for half of the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity. According to his prediction, the proportion of new installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic should be more than 45% this year.
According to the statistics of the national energy administration, in 2021, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China was 54.88 GW, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, of which 29.28 GW were distributed, accounting for 53.4%.
“On the one hand, it is the supply side incentive. On the other hand, from the perspective of the consumer side, the weight of consumption responsibility is still the most important policy means to promote the consumption of photovoltaic or new energy from the consumer side.” Tao Ye said that this year, it will continue to promote the implementation of national and provincial indicators, and there will be a guiding development for the 2023 indicators.
As for the goal, he believes that it is still necessary to implement the annual goal of non fossil energy transformation, including power consumption of non water renewable energy.
The previously released guidance on energy work in 2022 shows that this year, the proportion of non fossil energy in total energy consumption will increase to about 17.3%, and the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the total electricity consumption of the whole society will reach about 12.2%.
“In addition, in order to create a good environment for the development of new energy and take the lead in realizing high proportion of (new energy) in some areas, we should speed up the construction of our new type of pumped storage. In particular, for the construction of supporting pumped storage and flexible coal-fired power units of the” shagehuang “large base project, we should issue a special construction scheme for demonstration.” Tao Ye said.
He said that the second plenary meeting of the leading group for carbon peak and carbon neutralization held on March 1 revealed that the main tone of the whole work should study and promote the development of renewable energy, accelerate the planning and construction of new energy supply and consumption system, and support the development of distributed new energy. From the terminal point of view, both the green building in the construction field and the traffic electrification level in the transportation field, including the explosive growth of electric vehicles, will be more conducive to the consumption of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) in China.
