[early trading strategy]
Technically, the Shanghai stock index continued to rebound, and the index returned to the integer level of 3200 points. From the perspective of structure, the index is still in the process of shock bottoming, but the market volume can still remain in a depressed state, which indicates to a certain extent that the market is lack of confidence in going long, the overall style is conservative, and the operation still needs to be cautious.
Strong factors such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the epidemic and the tightening policy of the Federal Reserve have repeatedly disturbed the market, the index continues to fluctuate and bottom, and the structural market may be more obvious. Specifically, the global inflation situation has not yet eased, and overseas macro liquidity has tightened more than expected to suppress market risk appetite; At the same time, new mutant strains have emerged in the United States, the epidemic has been repeated, and the emergence of inflection points is lower than expected, and the downward pressure on the economy has further increased. Therefore, we see that although the current market rebounds, the trend is still hesitant, and the fund wait-and-see mood is strong. The core support of the short-term market is that China's policy is still relatively active. After the advance notice of RRR reduction at the national standing committee, the central bank further confirmed that the RRR reduction measures will be implemented quickly according to previous experience. At the same time, April 15 will usher in the central bank's customary operation of medium-term lending facility (MLF). It is worth looking forward to whether the policy interest rate can be reduced at that time. At the current time point, we believe that investors should not be overly pessimistic. After substantial adjustment, the valuation advantage of the A-share market is becoming more and more obvious. At the same time, in the environment of China's active policies, the medium-term opportunities of A-shares are still worth looking forward to. In terms of allocation direction, it is suggested that bargain hunting pay attention to the expectation of the first quarter report and the direction of steady growth (nuclear power, 5g + industrial Internet, UHV, water conservancy and pipe gallery) and the real estate, building materials and other sectors that are expected to see marginal improvement in the industry boom under the continuous increase of policies. At the same time, it is also recommended to bargain hunting the tourism, hotel and catering sectors in the post epidemic cycle.
[message side]
1. The consumption is delayed but the demand is strong. The leading household building materials enterprises expand production against the trend
According to the main data of the total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2021 released by the National Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the whole year was 440823 billion yuan, of which the retail sales of household building materials was about 363.4 billion yuan, a significant increase over 2020. The reporter interviewed people in the industry and learned that, affected by the epidemic and real estate regulation, consumers' demand for home building materials appears the phenomenon of "delayed consumption", but the market demand still exists and is relatively strong.
2. Central bank: timely use monetary policy tools such as RRR reduction to further strengthen financial support for the real economy
On April 14, the people's Bank of China held a press conference on financial statistics for the first quarter of 2022. Ruan Jianhong, director of the investigation and Statistics Department and spokesman of the people's Bank of China, said at the meeting that in the first quarter of this year, the liquidity was reasonable and abundant, the total financial volume increased steadily, the credit structure was optimized, the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises decreased steadily, and the quality and efficiency of financial services to the real economy continued to improve.
3. There is room for the reserve coverage rate of large state-owned banks to be lowered, and the funds released can accurately drip irrigation the real economy
The reporter noted that with the rapid growth of the profits of large state-owned banks last year, the provision coverage rate of large state-owned banks rose in 2021 in order to "store grain in a bumper year". This also provides operational space for large banks to take the initiative to reduce the provision coverage in the future, and creates the possibility to strengthen the ability of credit extension.
